Week 13 NFL Recap: Read our Week 13 NFL Recap for the five biggest NFL betting and fantasy football lessons we learned from Week 13.
Week 13 NFL Recap
1. A Giant(s) upset drops Seahawks to second place in NFC West
I’m not going to lie. I didn’t see it coming.
Sure, I loved the Under in the Giants-Seahawks game, but I did not think the Giants would pull off the impossible, especially with Colt McCoy drawing start for the injured Daniel Jones (hamstring).
However, it indeed happened. Led by their severely underrated defense, the Giants defeated the Seahawks 17-12 on Sunday afternoon. it was the Upset Special of the Week 13 slate by a mile.
While it appeared to be a lopsided matchup, 65% of the money wagered went in the Seahawks’ direction to cover the spread (-10.5) while 56% backed the Under (48), per PointsBet.
Depending on how Washington fares versus the Steelers on Monday, the Giants could have a stranglehold over first place in the NFC East, controlling their own destiny for the rest of the way.
Currently, the Giants are (+200) to win the NFC East on PointsBet. (Place that bet now.)
While McCoy was the starting quarterback for the Giants, he did not have to do much. He played game-manager, completing 13-of-22 passes for 105 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked twice.
The stars of the game for the Giants came at the running back position. Absurd to say considering no Saquon Barkley, but Wayne Gallman and (at least for Sunday) Alfred Morris played incredible football, all things considered.
Although Gallman failed to extend his scoring streak to six games, he did manage 135 rushing yards on 16 carries at an 8.4 yards per carry rate. Those 135 yards were a new career high for Gallman.
If you took the Over on Gallman’s 51.5 rushing yards total, you hit because he crushed it. Seattle’s defense did not have an answer to the Giants’ rushing attack.
For Morris, he did not get the job done yardage-wise as the change-of-pace back, but he did score a pair of touchdowns — one rushing and one receiving.
Those touchdowns are paired with 45 total yards on nine touches.
I remember right around this time last year, I had said on the FF Faceoff Podcast that the Buccaneers and the Dolphins defense are poised to take a big step up in 2020. Well, the Giants are one of those defenses to watch out for in 2021. They are no joke.
Not only did they hold the sometimes unstoppable Seattle offense to 327 total yards and 12 points on Sunday, but they have surrendered fewer than 20 points per game amidst their current four-game win streak and fewer than 21 in six of their past seven.
Offseason additions that include Blake Martinez and James Bradberry are making their presence known while Leonard Williams, who the Giants traded for at the 2019 deadline is a stud on the line. The Giants have superstars at all three levels of their defense, something they have not had since Tom Coughlin.
For the Seahawks, another loss means another game with Russell Wilson exposed. The Seahawks have lost four of their past seven games. Wilson turned the ball over 12 times in those defeats. He was also sacked five times in Sunday’s loss.
While the Seahawks and Rams are both tied at 8-4, the Rams own the tiebreaker and are currently in first place in the NFC West.
2. The Browns hand Tennessee a Titanic defeat.
While the Browns defeated the Titans by a score of 41-35, the game was not as close as the outcome. At one time, the Browns had a commanding 38-7 lead on the Titans entering the third quarter. And although the Browns allowed the Titans to get back into the game, Cleveland was the superior team on Sunday.
70% of the wagers favored the Titans and the -4.5-point spread, down from -6 earlier in the week, but 70% of the monies — the larger bets — backed the Browns. The total (53) was no different. While 55% of the public backed the Under, a whopping 80% of the money favored the Over.
Normally, the Browns are a run-dominant team. While it was not a terrible outing rushing as Nick Chubb still managed 80 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, adding another 26-yards on his lone reception while Kareem Hunt was held to 57 total yards on 17 touches, but this was a Baker Mayfield game.
Mayfield played like the guy Cleveland faithful believed he can play all along. In what could be the biggest game of his career with playoff implications on the line, Mayfield completed 25-of-33 passes for 334 yards with four touchdowns and no picks. While he did lose a fumble, Mayfield was not sacked. It was an incredible outing for the Browns’ front-five.
If you wagered Mayfield’s Over 1.5 touchdown passes prop and his Over 228.5 passing yards prop, you hit them both in the first half. Nothing short of incredible considering how poorly Mayfield has played at times this season.
From a fantasy football perspective, I know that there are a handful of games left to be played before the conclusion of Week 13, but currently, Mayfield sits as the QB2 (29.5) and Chubb the PPR RB10 (17.6).
What should not be overlooked is the Cleveland defense. While they were short-handed in the secondary, Myles Garrett’s return from the COVID-19 list was an impactful one. He managed two tackles, one sack, one tackle for a loss, and one QB hit. He is also a disruptive player whose contributions don’t always show up on his stat line.
Garrett is second in the NFL in sacks with 10.5 in 10-of-12 games. He is averaging just over one sack per game.
The greatest impact the Browns’ defense has made in Sunday’s win was bottling-up Derrick Henry.
While he was on a three-game streak with 100+ rushing yards, the Cleveland defense held him to 60 yards — his lowest total since Week 5 — and a season-low 15 attempts. Henry also lost a fumble, his first of the year.
Sure, he was game-scripted out, but if they let Henry make an early-impact, this game could have gone in the other direction. The Titans’ offense, and the team as a whole, runs through Henry.
3. Jalen Hurts might’ve confirmed a quarterback controversy during the Eagles’ fourth consecutive loss.
While the Packers are, by far, the better team, defeating the Eagles on Sunday was not going to be an easy out. If you remember back to 2019, Carson Wentz led the Eagles to a win over the Packers in Green Bay.
However, that was not the case on Sunday. The Packers handled their business with a 30-16 victory. Green Bay covered (-8.5) while the total went Under (47).
Despite the fact that 79% of the wagers and 76% of the money backed the Packers, the line moved from -9-to-8.5. Meanwhile, the total jumped up two points from 47.5-to-49.5 with 76% favoring the Over.
The story of the game was not Davante Adams recording his fourth-straight game against the Eagles with 100+ receiving yards or a touchdown — Adams corralled 10-of-12 targets for 122 yards and two scores — it was the Eagles finally benching Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts.
Before we get into Hurts, let’s not overlook Adams. In 8-of-10 games played this season, Adams recorded 100+ yards or a touchdown. One of the most productive wideouts in fantasy football, Adams finished Sunday with 34.1 PPR points. Barring an explosion from one of the receivers playing on Monday or Tuesday, he will finish as the overall WR2 for Week 13.
Aaron Jones is another star on the Packers’ offense who showed up to play. Jones rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries while hauling in all three targets for 18 yards. It was Jones’ first game with 100+ total yards since Week 4. Jones is currently the PPR RB2 with 23.8 points. He should end the week in the top five even if someone pops on Monday or Tuesday.
Jones broke off a 77-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter that iced the game.
I live in Southern New Jersey. Eagles country. Talking to Eagles faithful, the fans are split. Some are calling for Doug Pederson’s head while others are calling for Wentz’s.
Those calling for Wentz finally got their wish on Sunday.
Midway through the third quarter of Sunday’s loss, the Eagles turned to Hurts following a 79-yard outing on 6-of-15 passing from Wentz. He was also sacked four times. Wentz played his worst game when arguably, the Eagles have been the healthiest they have been all season at their skill positions.
Philadelphia’s line is a mess, but Wentz is a former second overall pick. He must play better.
For Hurts, he led the Eagles to 13 points in the fourth quarter and got the team back into the game. Hurst completed 5-of-12 passes for 109 yards with one touchdown and a pick. He was also sacked three times.
This was Hurts’ best throw of the game, a 34-yard touchdown strike to Jalen Reagor. It was Reagor’s only target and reception of the afternoon.
The Packers got to Eagles quartebacks seven times in Sunday’s win. I’m not sure I am putting it on Wentz or Hurts. I’ll say it again, the Eagles’ line is thier handicap.
Miles Sanders also was a sheer disappointment. Many believe Sanders is an elite back. Well, he did not play like one this week.
Facing one of the softest running defenses in the NFL, Sanders only managed 31 yards on 10 carries while failing to catch his only target. Perhaps we should put Pederson on the hot seat.
Entering Sunday, Sanders was a top 10 back in true yards per carry and yards per touch, but the Eagles are a top-five team in team pass plays per game. And it was not like the Eagles were out of the game to completely abandon the run. They could have at least kept the Green Bay defense honest.
As of now, Pederson has not announced a starting quarterback for Week 14. Let the quarterback controversy begin.
4. Bill Belichick steamrolls another rookie QB to keep Patriots alive.
With a 45-0 beat-down of the Chargers on Sunday, not only did Bill Belichick become 20-5 versus rookie quarterbacks during his tenure with the Patriots, but New England is now 6-6 and right back in the playoff race in the AFC.
Since losing four straight games following their 2-1 stat to the year, the Patriots have now won four of their past five. They are hot and getting the job done any which way. It isn’t always pretty, but the Patriots are the 10th seed in the AFC and closing in fast.
The line for the game opened as a pick’em, but by the time Sunday came around, the Chargers were two-point favorites despite the fact that the Patriots drew 61% of the wagers.
This game was not close, obviously. It also was not a game with pristine quarterback play. While we expect that from 2020 Cam Newton and the Patriots, Justin Herbert has been nothing short of outstanding this season. That, until he ran into Belichick.
Herbert finished with 209 yards and two interceptions on 26-of-53 passing while being sacked three times.
The Patriots’ defense also hed the Chargers’ offense, one of the best the NFL has to offer when they are hot, to 258 total yards. Los Angeles could not run the ball either. All of the Chargers’ fantasy assets were abysmal. Not one wide receiver topped 48 yards (Keenan Allen) and not a single running back topped 36 yards (Austin Ekeler).
Although the Patriots put up 45, they only logged 291 total yards. If you read my Patriots-Chargers Bet Tips, you would have seen that I believed the Patriots would run the ball to slow down the pace. That is how this one played out.
Three Patriots logged 10+ carries. Damien Harris went for 80 yards on 16 carries — both team-bests. While Newton rushed for 48 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries and Sony Michel went for 35 yards on 10.
This was Newton’s seventh game with a rushing score and his fourth with two. He is cashing his anytime touchdown scorer as well as his two-touchdown scorer props at a high rate (63.8%).
We did see a new face on the Patriots receiving corps show up and score a touchdown. Gunner Olszewski caught his lone target for a 38-yard touchdown. His 38 receiving yards were a team-high.
Olszewski also scored on a big punt return. If you had the Patriots’ D/ST anytime touchdown scorer prop, you hit.
5. The Chiefs again show they can win in different ways.
Two years ago, Patrick Mahomes won the NFL MVP but the Chiefs were knocked out of the playoffs. Why? Their offense was unstoppable while their defense could not stop anyone.
And while their defense played well enough last season to bring the Lombardi trophy back to Kansas City, their defensive unit took another step forward in 2020.
Allowing 21.2 points per game, the Chiefs are the sixth-best team in points allowed. Sure, you can gain yardage against them, but they have shown that they can bend but not break.
I’ve said it before and I will say it again. The most dangerous weapon Mahomes has in his arsenal is his top-10 defense. I know the Steelers are one game better than the Chiefs, but Kansas City is the best team in the NFL.
They can beat you in a shootout, they can beat you in a defensive battle, they can come from behind, play with a lead and grind clock, and everything in between.
On Sunday night, the Chiefs defeated the Broncos 22-16. Not only did they fail to cover the spread (-13.5), but the total went Under (51.5).
In a defensive battle with one of the best defenses in the NFL — yes, the Broncos’ defense is terrific despite their record — the Chiefs’ defense proved to be the better unit on Sunday night, allowing 330 total yards, 16 points, and forcing two turnovers despite the fact that they did not get to Drew Lock once in the sack category. In fact, neither team recorded a sack.
Lock threw two picks on Sunday night, one of which to Tyrann Mathieu, which iced the game.
The star of the game for the Chiefs was Travis Kelce. He caught 8-of-13 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. He finished as fantasy’s PPR TE2 with 27.6 points.
While Kelce shined, Tyreek Hill, whose been ridiculous this season, was held to 58 yards on 6-of-10 targets. It was only the second game this season in which Hill did not score. Or did he? You decide.
If there is a flaw in Kansas City’s armor, it is running the football. Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire was active, he did not draw a single touch as he was dealing with an illness all week. Le’Veon Bell would lead the team in rushing with 40 yards on 11 carries.
On the Broncos end, one of their bright spots was Melvin Gordon. Gordon, who historically plays well against the Chiefs, had another strong showing. He went for 142 yards on 16 touches. Gordon has gone for either 100+ yards or a touchdown in six of his past seven games against the Chiefs dating back to his tenure with the Chargers.
Not far behind Gordon was Tim Patrick. Patrick caught all four of his targets for 44 yards and a pair of scores, cashing-in on his two-touchdown prop at (+2500) odds.
Patrick has gone for 100+ yards or a touchdown in six of his past nine games.
Prepare your Week 14 betting tips and plan
- Read our latest NFL news, analysis, tips, predictions and betting tips.
- Learn how to bet on sports, including strategies, key terms, and betting process.
- Watch videos of our latest NFL analysis and predictions from experts.
- Choose the sportsbook and betting offer that fits your budget and strategy.
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