Week 11 NFL Betting Trends

Last Updated: Jan 9, 2021

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends: We are entering Week 11, which promises to be one of the better weeks of the NFL season as there are several key divisional games and several elite primetime matchups.

To get you ready for the wild week ahead, we look at the top five betting trends you need to know before the games begin.

1. The Steelers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit favorite.

The week’s biggest mismatch features the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Jacksonville to take on Jake Luton and the Jaguars. Jacksonville was frisky against Green Bay last week, but the Steelers have one of the league’s best defenses and could shut out the Jaguars in Week 11.

The only thing that should cause pause here is Mike Tomlin’s record against bad teams. In his last 17 games as a double-digit favorite, his Steelers are just 4-13 against the spread. We saw this play out in Week 9 as they nearly lost to Garrett Gilbert and the Dallas Cowboys.

Exercise caution here as the Steelers tend to play down to the level of their competition.

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2. The Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in primetime.

Arguably, the week’s best game will be on Monday Night Football as the Los Angeles Rams will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

While the Rams have played better as of late, the Buccaneers are the betting favorite here, and we should see a ton of action from the public on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay. However, it’s worth pointing out that Sean McVay’s Rams have been excellent in primetime games, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. The Rams can create pressure with their interior defensive line and should have no problem slowing down Brady in this game.

Considering McVay’s coaching performances under the lights, think twice about betting on the Buccaneers to cover the 3.5-point spread on Monday night.

Week 11 NFL Betting Trends: Aaron Rodgers' Packers typically rebound after failing to cover the spread.
Aaron Rodgers’ Packers are on a 12-0 run covering the spread in games after they failed to do so. (USA TODAY Sports)

3. The Packers are on a 12-0 run ATS in games after they failed to cover the spread.

One of the most common bets of Week 10 was the Packers to cover the spread against the Jaguars. Given that Jacksonville was starting a rookie sixth-round pick at quarterback, many thought the Packers would run away with this game. That wasn’t the case at all, as the Jaguars had a chance to win the game outright in the final seconds of the game. The Packers weren’t able to cover the monster spread and are now 6-3 against the spread in nine games this season.

Entering Week 11, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are 2.5-point underdogs to the Colts in Indianapolis. While Green Bay can be exposed some on the ground, it’s never wise to bet against Rodgers as an underdog.

It’s also not smart to bet against them coming off an ATS spread loss.

In their last 12 games after failing to cover, the Packers are 12-0 against the spread in the following week. Look for them to come out aggressive against the Colts and cover this small road spread Sunday afternoon.

4. The Browns have lost 10 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents.

The Browns are in a fight for a Wild Card playoff spot entering Week 11. Despite a 6-3 record, the Browns would be out of the playoff picture if the tournament started today.

They desperately need a win this week to stay alive in the hunt, and they will host the Philadelphia Eagles. Cleveland is currently a 3.5-point favorite in this game, but it’s worth knowing that the Browns have now lost 10 of their last 12 games to NFC opponents.

They were able to survive an early-season shootout to the Cowboys and they beat Washington in Week 3, but they have certainly had their problems against uncommon opponents.

Considering both teams’ inconsistencies, it might be wise to stay away from this game altogether.

5. The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in six straight road games.

Coming off a Week 10 bye, the Cowboys will take on the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. And while they did look competent in their last game against the Steelers, you would be wise to stay away from Dallas and the points in this game.

The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in six straight games when playing on the road. With the Dallas defense’s struggles against the run, don’t be surprised if Dalvin Cook runs wild in this game and Dallas allows 27 or more points.

Andy Dalton doesn’t inspire much confidence at quarterback, and the Cowboys will likely lose by more than a touchdown in Week 11.

Prepare Week 11 betting tips and plan


Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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