UFC 263 Predictions: Adesanya vs Vettori, Diaz vs Edwards, Calderwood vs Murphy

Last Updated: Jun 13, 2021

Here are Taylor Tarter’s UFC 263 predictions, including UFC 263 bet picks for Adesanya vs Vettori, Diaz vs Edwards, and Calderwood vs Murphy.

UFC 262 in May resulted in seven finishes out of 12 prelim and main card bouts for an exciting night of fights. Charles Oliveira, a 40-fight veteran, finally won a belt by claiming the UFC Lightweight title in a second-round KO/TKO finish over UFC newcomer Michael Chandler.

UFC 263 on Saturday, June 12, should have its fair share of exciting fights as well. Both the Middleweight and Flyweight titles are on the line, Nate Diaz returns to the octagon after 19 months away from the sport to face Leon Edwards, and submission artist Demian Maia squares off against Belal Muhammad in an exciting Welterweight fight.

UFC 263 will air on Saturday, June 12. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV, but you can watch the preliminary fights at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the early prelims at 6 p.m. on UFC Fight Pass.

Without further adieu, here are a few bet tips, picks, and predictions for UFC 263.

UFC 263 Bet Picks & Predictions For Adesanya vs Vettori, Diaz vs Edwards, and Calderwood vs Murphy

UFC 263 Bet Picks & Predictions

All UFC 263 bet tips and picks are from UFC 263 odds listed at of up to $2,000 for new players only.

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Israel Adesanya To Throw 1+ Punches vs. Marvin Vettori (+100)

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Israel Adesanya To Defeat Marvin Vettori (-280)

Coming off the first loss of his professional career in March, Israel Adesanya is back in the octagon to defend his Middleweight crown against Marvin Vettori.

Adesanya (20-1-0) is perhaps the most exciting fighter in mixed martial arts, and arguably the most exciting since Anderson Silva was in his prime. This fight is a repeat of a 2018 bout between Adesanya and Vettori (17-4-1), which Adesanya won in a hard-fought split decision. Vettori has not lost in five fights since then, and three years later he is ready for a rematch.

This fight will come down to whether or not Vettori can get Adesanya to the mat. The bigger Jan Blachowicz was able to take down Adesanya and keep him down in the later rounds at UFC 259, and showed other fighters the potential blueprint for defeating “The Last Stylebender.”

Vettori has won 53 percent of his fights by submission, while Adesanya has never won by submission. If Vettori can leverage his 45 percent takedown average in this fight, it could lead to a huge upset. On the other hand, Adesanya’s 80 percent takedown defense makes him hard to get to the mat. Adesanya also possesses a six-inch reach advantage, which will make it difficult for Vettori to get a clean shot at a takedown.

While Adesanya is arguably the better striker, Vettori is the more persistent striker. He lands nearly a strike per minute more than Adesanya and defends 66 percent of strikes compared to Adesanya’s 61 percent defense rate. Adesanya is much more elusive, however, and only absorbs about 2.6 strikes per minute.

This fight is going to come down to takedowns and takedown defense, but it should still end in the result that most are expecting. Adesanya will win this fight, most likely in the first three rounds.

UFC 263 Predictions For Adesanya vs Vettori

Marvin Vettori is looking to avenge his previous loss to Israel Adesanya (Image: USA Today).

Nate Diaz To Defeat Leon Edwards (+350)

This promises to be an entertaining fight. Nate Diaz (21-12-0) has not fought since he lost the “BMF” title to Jorge Masvidal in November 2019. Prior to that, Diaz defeated Anthony Pettis and Michael Johnson. He also split his two fights with Conor McGregor, and his loss in the second fight was quite debatable.

Leon Edwards (18-3-0, 1NC) was on an eight-fight win streak until his last fight, which was scored as a no-contest after he accidentally poked Belal Muhammad in the eye.

Each fighter has very different win percentages and fighting styles. The majority of Diaz’s wins have come via submission, while most of Edwards’ wins have been by decision. Diaz holds a slight two-inch advantage in reach and is a prolific striker, nearly doubling Edwards’ strikes landed per minute. Diaz also absorbs nearly twice as many strikes as Edwards, but his durability is second to none.

This fight could come down to takedowns and submissions, where Diaz should have an edge. Both fighters have similar takedown averages per 15 minutes, as Diaz averages 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes while Edwards averages 1.4. Both fighters have a 30 percent takedown accuracy as well.

While Edwards is a better takedown defender (70 percent defense rate compared to 42 percent for Diaz), Diaz is much better when it comes to submissions. Edwards averages 0.4 submissions per 15 minutes, while Diaz averages 1.4.

Bet on Diaz to upset here, and perhaps consider the Diaz prop bet for winning by submission as well.

Joanne Calderwood To Defeat Lauren Murphy (-125)

A fight to look forward to during the prelims is the women’s Flyweight contest between Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood, which could end up being one of the night’s most exciting fights.

Murphy (14-4-0) is on a four-fight win streak, while Calderwood (15-5-0) has alternated wins and losses over her last five fights. A decisive finish to this fight could earn one of these women a Flyweight title fight.

This fight figures to be action-packed based on the pure volume of strikes that will be thrown. Murphy averages 3.8 strikes per minute with a 38 percent striking accuracy, while Calderwood throws nearly twice as many strikes per minute and with higher accuracy (49 percent). Both fighters are also willing to take damage as well, absorbing close to four significant strikes per minute.

Calderwood has a slight edge if this goes to the mat. Her takedown accuracy of 55 percent is considerably higher than Murphy’s 37 percent, and with 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes, Calderwood is much more aggressive on the mat as well. Murphy has won more fights by KO/TKO, but she has never faced a striker who throws punches and kicks with the volume that Calderwood does.

Calderwood vs. Murphy may end up going the distance, but it should not affect the outcome. Bet on Calderwood to win. which could determine the next female Flyweight number one contender.

UFC 263 Event Schedule

  • UFC 263 card event date: Saturday, June 12
  • UFC 263 early preliminary fights: 6 p.m., UFC Fight Pass
  • UFC 263 preliminary fights: 8 p.m. on ESPN
  • UFC 263 main event start: 10 p.m. ET on PPV


Taylor Tarter

Taylor Tarter, a lifelong baseball fan, covers baseball, DFS baseball, and baseball betting for, and hosts the podcast Fastball Fantasy Baseball (@fastballpod on Twitter). He is a student of sabermetrics, which drives his podcast and his writing. Taylor has over a decade of fantasy baseball experience, including being a multi-time league champion in various formats. And finally... Go Nats!

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