Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff Trade, NFL Betting, Fantasy Football Tips: The Rams got their quarterback. By trading away two first-round picks, a third-rounder and Jared Goff to Detroit, Los Angeles is now home to Matthew Stafford.
Was this a lot to give up for a soon-to-be 33-year old QB with recent back issues who has not won many games throughout his career? Sure. But that’s if you assume that this haul was only for Stafford. Half of the compensation was partly to get rid of Goff and his egregious contract.
The crazy thing with the Rams is - they traded Goff away BEFORE his extension even kicked in. Luckily, for Detroit, there is an out in this contract after 2022 so they’re really only stuck with him for two years. He is cuttable with no dead cap hit afterward.
Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff Trade
Matthew Stafford to Rams
Matthew Stafford is a STARK improvement over Jared Goff in a vacuum. Over the past four seasons, Stafford had a 4.9% TD rate and 1.9% INT rate while Goff produced a 4.6% TD rate and 2.2% INT rate, according to Pro Football Reference. These numbers may not seem TOO far off but even those marginal increases/decreases matter. Also, Goff has 37 fumbles in 62 games while Stafford has 24 in 56. The Rams simply limiting turnovers from the QB spot will do wonders for the offense as a whole to not stall/stymie drives.
Stafford’s a much more confident pocket-passer who is not mobile per se but *more* mobile than Goff who is like a giraffe on the run. Stafford is more prone to taking sacks than Goff but that is presumably a function of the offenses they run. The vertical passing that Stafford provides is more valuable than the horizontally structured offense Sean McVay formulated to mitigate Goff’s limitations. Goff was asked to get the ball out quick and that limited his sacks but the capped offense was much more impactful than the extra few sacks Stafford might take with the Rams.
Stafford should have no problem transitioning to McVay’s system as the presence of a run game will take the load off of him for the first time since the days of Calvin Johnson. The only 1000-yard rusher Stafford has ever played with throughout his career was Reggie Bush.
The struggles to find a consistent ground-game in Detroit since Barry Sanders are well noted. Stafford has gone through a myriad of failed backfields including names like Jahvid Best, Mikal Leshoure, Kerryon Johnson, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount, Zach Zenner and much more. While there have been successful games here-and-there for Detroit the issue has been consistency. They finally may have solved that with D’Andre Swift who looked fantastic in 2020 but that has no effect on Stafford anymore.
Stafford will be stepping into a LOADED offensive room with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Cam Akers and even Darrell Henderson who should bounce back from a disappointing 2020.
The losses of Gerald Everett and Josh Reynolds can be solved in-house with Van Jefferson and Brycen Hopkins stepping up. Jefferson is an interesting name to mention though because he could present Stafford with the only true downfield threat on this roster. He has no true 40-time but reportedly was the fastest player at last year’s Senior Bowl, hitting a top-end speed of 21 miles-per-hour. Either he or an offseason addition could unlock the deep-end of the field for the offense given that most of the listed skill players operate more in the short-to-intermediate field and create yards-after-catch.
Next year's Super Bowl odds, already? @betonline_ag has the Chiefs as a 5:1 favorite to get back and win, and Bucs are tied for second-best odds at 12:1, along with the Bills, Packers and Rams.
Longest odds? Bengals, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars and Jets at 75:1 each.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) February 3, 2021
Nevertheless, as long as the Rams’ offensive line holds up competently in 2021, Stafford should have a field day hitting open receivers all across the field. This offense has a chance to reach 2017-2018 levels with more playoff potential given Stafford’s ability to take over games and create clutch fourth-quarter drives. The Rams are already up there in 2022 Super Bowl odds at 12:1 and should have a double-digit win total. Neither is a bad bet now.
Jared Goff to Lions
A lot of folks feel bad for Goff and to an extent, it is deserved. He was given the boot and dumped off to Detroit, a team without the brightest future. However, his contract is un-cuttable for the next two years and he will be stepping in as the unincumbered starting QB unless the Lions draft someone relatively early. Detroit has some shiny young toys in Swift and T.J. Hockenson as well. Both have the potential to be the best players at their respective positions at some point throughout their careers.
While this isn’t an environmental upgrade, Goff will have far less pressure to just play football. Saying the expectations in Detroit are low is an understatement. The Lions have long been a laughing-stock and while Stafford has kept them competent over the past decade. They are coming off of the dumpster-fire Matt Patricia era and into the kneecap-biting Dan Campbell times. It’s unfortunate but no longer will Goff be under the Los Angeles microscope. Anything he does that’s even moderately good will be celebrated and defended by the fanbase because he’s a capable football player.
However, it is very difficult to ignore the negatives. The Lions are unlikely to retain Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., leaving the WR room in shambles. Quintez Cephus was a decent prospect and Danny Amendola is a reliable slot receiver but there are no real playmakers here. Detroit will be tasked with navigating the draft and free agency to fix not only their entire defense but also, finding receivers.
The chance of Jared Goff making it to 2023 in Detroit has to be like…0.00%, right?
My guess is, the Lions take an underdog mentality in 2021 with the world against Goff/Campbell/Detroit. Win a few more games than they should and rally city
Then, in 2022, the bottom falls out pic.twitter.com/MeZjGRi84H
— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) February 3, 2021
It actually would be savvy to take the over on Detroit likely low win-total for 2021 given that expectations will be minimal. Goff isn’t good but he also isn’t a bottom-of-the-barrel QB like the narratives surrounding this deal make him out to be. They also didn’t get much out of last year’s 3rd-overall pick, Jeff Okudah. If he steps up in a new scheme next season and plays even close to his potential, that is a huge upgrade in-and-of-itself. On top of Okudah for the Lions defense, stud defensive end Trey Flowers should be fully healthy after missing 9 games in 2020.
There is a good chance Detroit ends up around .500 with the right offseason moves. This could be a total to watch.
Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff Trade: NFL Betting, Fantasy Football Tips
Matthew Stafford to Rams
Assuming he stays healthy, Stafford *could* finish as a top-10 QB in 2021. Most likely on the lower-end though given his lack of mobility. Of the top-10 QBs in 2020, only one could be considered “immobile"…Tom Brady. However, considering that Goff finished as QB7 in 2018 and QB12 in 2017, it is not for Stafford to outplay him in the same offense.
Goff led the league in pass attempts in 2019 and has been in the top-10 for the past three years. Even with a top-5 defense in 2020, Goff was asked to throw the ball 552 times in 15 games. The Rams’ defense will also be less elite than 2020 given that it will be difficult to navigate the losses of John Johnson III and Leonard Floyd.
Having the previously listed skill players to work with and McVay’s non-Goff offense is so exciting to think about. On top of that, there is the potential for the Rams to add another receiver via draft or free agency (although with limited assets). Stafford will be coveted in fantasy but given his lack of mobility, it is quite likely that his ADP is reasonable enough to attain. There is definitely plenty to worry about with his increasing age and back injury but assuming he gets a fully healthy offseason in, you can consider him no more of an injury risk than any other QB.
Jared Goff to Lions
Assuming that Detroit does not select a QB in the first round of the 2021 Draft, Goff could end up an undervalued QB in fantasy for 2021. New OC Anthony Lynn will want to run the ball heavily with Swift and whoever they add in the backfield as a compliment.
However, Goff should still be asked to throw 35-40 times per game, racking up yards and a touchdown or two per game. In 2020, the Detroit Lions’ defense was 32nd in DVOA - dead last. Even though I’m optimistic that they can be significantly better next season that’s essentially moving from 32nd to maybe 20th. They will remain below average and play from behind often.
The Lions offensive line isn’t great but they have some excellent individual pieces in Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow along with last year’s rookie Jonah Jackson who looked solid. Goff’s terrible under pressure so anyone looking to roster him in 2021 should really hope another addition is made upfront.
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