The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Conference Championship Game in an intriguing matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL.
Chiefs’ running back Isiah Pacheco has become one of the focal points of this offense, especially in recent weeks. Pacheco has dominated touches in the backfield, establishing himself as one of the most underrated backs in the NFL.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Pacheco props for the AFC Conference Championship Game between Kansas City and Baltimore.
All Conference Championship odds used in these props are current as of Monday, Jan. 22, at 11 a.m. ET.
Isiah Pacheco Prop Pick of the Day
Isiah Pacheco Rush Attempts Prop
Isiah Pacheco: Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-130)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Isiah Pacheco had 205 carries in 14 games, which works out to 14.6 per game. But if we narrow down that sample, we see that the Chiefs’ running back has become even more of a workhorse recently, racking up 14 or more rush attempts in seven of his last eight games.
I’m not concerned about game script forcing the Chiefs to abandon the run, since they’re only short underdogs and this is a low bar for Pacheco.
I should also note that there’s a legit chance that the Chiefs win this game outright, which would put Pacheco in a favorable position to rack up carries in the fourth quarter as they try to drain the clock.
Furthermore, the Ravens are tougher in pass defense (2nd in Pass EPA) compared to rush defense (16th in Rush EPA), so running the ball could help Kansas City overcome one of the toughest units in football.
While Pacheco (ankle/toe) popped up on the injury report, reports indicate that this won’t affect his availability for the AFC Championship.
We’re getting an off-market price on this prop at bet365, as Pacheco is listed at 14.5 attempts in most other spots, including FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars.
If bet365 is not available in your state, you can hit this up at BetMGM for (-135).
Isiah Pacheco Touchdown Prop
Isiah Pacheco: First Touchdown (+800)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 Units
We’re getting a favorable price on Pacheco to score the first touchdown since the Chiefs are underdogs, so it’s less likely that they’ll find the end zone first, which enhances the odds.
But it wouldn’t shock me to see Kansas City win this game, so it’s totally fine to target one of its high-volume players to find the end zone.
Pacheco has scored a touchdown in six consecutive games, so he’s on quite a roll right now. It’s clear that Kansas City likes to feature him when they get inside the 20-yard-line.
Given that the Ravens’ weakness is in run defense, it would make sense to see Pacheco play a prominent role in the Chiefs’ offensive gameplan, perhaps even more so than usual.
At +800 odds, it’s definitely worth a shot to pick Pacheco to find pay dirt first in this game, so sprinkle 0.1 units on this one.
