UFC 264 Predictions: Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier Bet & Full Card Analysis

Last Updated: Jul 11, 2021

Here are Taylor Tarter’s UFC 264 predictions, including UFC 264 bet picks for Poirier vs McGregor, O’Malley vs Moutinho, and Pereira vs Price.

Unlike UFC 262 in May, UFC 263 in June was not quite as exciting, offering up only 3 non-decision wins out of 14 total fights.

It is no surprise that Israel Adesanya retained his Middleweight Championship after defeating Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision - a decision that was not very close.

In somewhat of a surprise, underdog Brandon Moreno defeated his opponent Division Figueredo for the Flyweight Title, finishing him with a rear-naked choke.

In his return to the UFC after nearly a two-year layoff, Nate Diaz lost to Leon Edwards by decision, despite storming back in the final round. Edwards’ victory over Diaz makes him one of the top choices to face Kamaru Unman for the Welterweight Title.

UFC 264 will not feature any championship bouts, but there are some entertaining fighters and interesting matchups on the card for Saturday, July 10.

UFC 264 Card Preview

Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor’s third fight headlines the night. Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson presents an interesting stylistic matchup. The controversial Greg Hardy goes up against Tai Tuivasa in a Heavyweight matchup. Sean O’Malley will also bring an entertainment factor in his fight to start off the main card.

Even the prelim fights feature some interesting names like UFC veteran Carlos Condit, Niko Price, and Brad Tavares.

UFC 264 will air on Saturday, July 10. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV, but you can watch the preliminary fights at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the early prelims at 6:15 p.m. on UFC Fight Pass.

Without further adieu, here are a few bet tips, picks, and predictions for UFC 264.

Sean O'Malley delivers a kick during UFC 260 in March 2021

Sean O’Malley heads into UFC 264 as a heavy favorite against Khris Moutinho. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

UFC 264 Bet Picks & Predictions For McGregor vs Poirier, O’Malley vs Moutinho, and Pereira vs Price

All UFC 264 bet tips and picks are from UFC 264 odds listed at , who has a welcome offer of 2 Risk-Free Bets of up to $2,000 for new players only.

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McGregor vs Poirier: Keys To Winning The Fight

  • McGregor’s takedown defense was a point of praise for most of his career, until he faced Khabib, who bulldozed McGregor to the ground multiple times in their bout at UFC 229.
  • While McGregor’s takedown accuracy is better than Poirier’s, Poirier statistically has the better defense (69% vs 67%), a higher rate of takedowns (1.75 per 15 minutes vs .7), and will likely have used Conor’s fight against Khabib to find weaknesses in his takedown defense.
  • Poirier is also much better on the ground than McGregor, having won seven fights via submission compared to Conor’s lone submission win. Poirier averages 1.32 submissions per 15 minutes compared to Conor’s 0. If the fight goes to the ground, the clear advantage goes to Poirier.
  • Where McGregor excels is striking, with an impressive 19 of his 22 wins coming by KO/TKO. Both fighters land over 5 significant strikes per minute, but McGregor puts himself in danger more often, absorbing over 4 strikes per minute.
  • Although he does this to provide himself with opportunities to counterstrike, it can result in McGregor absorbing some hard shots like in his last fight against Poirier.

Despite McGregor clearly wanting to win and to salvage his legacy as one of the greatest fighters ever, Poirier’s well-rounded game will lead him to a win over “Notorious” on Saturday.

McGregor vs Poirier Prediction & Bet Pick

Dustin Poirier To Defeat Conor McGregor (-120)

The allure of Conor McGregor (22-5-0) has seemingly begun to wane after a handful of losses in recent years, as well as a lack of fights. His meteoric rise to the top of the UFC included a 15-fight win streak between 2011-2015, but losses to Nate Diaz, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and a loss to Poirier (27-6-0, 1NC) in January have perhaps revealed that McGregor is not the generational superstar that many thought he was.

More UFC 264 Predictions & Bet Picks

Sean O’Malley To Defeat Kris Moutinho (-850)

On the surface, this fight is a little lopsided. “Sugar” Sean O’Malley (13-1-0) enters his seventh UFC fight against Kris Moutinho (9-4-0) who is making his UFC debut, making O’Malley the clear favorite.

O’Malley’s bread and butter is his striking, having won nine of his 13 professional fights via KO/TKO. He averages an outrageous 6.35 significant strikes landed per minute. Over 50% of the strikes he lands are considered significant strikes, and he does it while absorbing fewer than four strikes per minute.

He is also a threat to take Moutinho to the mat. Although he only averages about one takedown every 15 minutes, O’Malley has a 50% takedown success rate and will attempt submissions once he gets opponents to the mat, average one submission per 15 minutes.

Moutinho’s professional wins include three by KO/TKO, one by submission, and five by decision, showing he is a durable fighter and can go the distance in a technical fight.

Despite his fortitude, Moutinho should not be much of a match for O’Malley in this fight. Bet on “Sugar” Sean O’Malley to win straight-up, or take a prop bet on a KO/TKO win in the early rounds.

Michael Pereira To Defeat Niko Price (-170)

The prelim fight between Michael Pereira (25-11-0, 2NC) and Niko Price (14-4-0, 2NC) may end up being one of the most exciting fights of the night.

Both fighters possess similar striking statistics, averaging about three significant strikes landed per minute and just over 50% strike defense rates. The big difference between their striking styles is that Price is more willing to absorb shots to get opportunities to counter-strike, absorbing over a strike more per minute than Pereira. Pereira’s significant strike percentage is nearly 20% higher than Price’s, meaning that more of the strikes that Pereira lands are considered significant strikes.

  • Pereira is also a more well-rounded fighter than Price. When it comes to grappling, Pereira attempts two takedowns per 15 minutes with a 57% takedown success rate, compared to Price’s one takedown per 15-minute average and 28 success rate.
  • Not only is Pereira better at getting the takedown, but he is also better at defending them as well. He has an incredible 100% takedown defense rate, compared to a 66% defense rate for Price.
  • Both fighters have shown the ability to get the submission with their opponents on the mat, so it is likely that if it goes to the ground, either fighter will attempt some submissions.
  • Despite not having any wins on his resume against significant opponents, Pereira should take away the win against Price at UFC 264.

UFC 264 Event Schedule

  • UFC 264 card event date: Saturday, July 10
  • UFC 264 early preliminary fights: 6:15 p.m., UFC Fight Pass
  • UFC 264 preliminary fights: 8 p.m. on ESPN
  • UFC 264 main event start: 10 p.m. ET on PPV


Taylor Tarter

Taylor Tarter, a lifelong baseball fan, covers baseball, DFS baseball, and baseball betting for, and hosts the podcast Fastball Fantasy Baseball (@fastballpod on Twitter). He is a student of sabermetrics, which drives his podcast and his writing. Taylor has over a decade of fantasy baseball experience, including being a multi-time league champion in various formats. And finally... Go Nats!

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