2021 US Open PGA Predictions: Best Golf Bet Picks For Major At Torrey Pines

Last Updated: Jun 17, 2021

Here are The Game Day’s 2021 US Open PGA Predictions for the major at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California. See which 2021 US Open bet picks to make for this year’s event.

It might not carry the same natural charm as the Masters, but the US Open is unquestionably golf’s most fascinating obstacle. Watching some of the world’s most gifted golfers struggle mightily is always a favorite pastime of mine, one of the few moments in time where we are alike. (To be clear, we are not.)

The lovely Torrey Pines Golf Course will play host to this event, which should make for some incredible views and a familiar layout for many pros. For bettors, brutal conditions and a challenging setup creates fascinating wagering opportunities.

Do you go with the chalk? Do you search for a big score, like the one we just saw with Phil Mickelson at the PGA Championship?

There are plenty of ways to navigate the US Open, and navigate we shall.

All 2021 US Open PGA Major bets, odds, and bet lines are courtesy of BetMGM. BetMGM offers a Risk-Free Bet for up to $600 for new players. with our hands-on review.

2021 US Open PGA Predictions: Best Golf Bet Picks For Major At Torrey Pines

2021 US Open PGA Schedule

  • Round 1: Thursday, June 17
  • Round 2: Friday, June 18
  • Round 3: Saturday, June 19
  • Final Round: Sunday, June 20

2021 US Open PGA Odds To Win

  • Jon Rahm (+900)
  • Brooks Koepka (+1600)
  • Dustin Johnson (+1600)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1800)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1800)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2000)
  • Rory McIlroy (+2000)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Justin Thomas (+2200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2500)
  • Patrick Reed (+2500)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2500)

Assessing The Chalk

Jon Rahm (+900)

It’s been a weird month for the favorite, and that’s putting it mildly. After a positive COVID test forced Rahm out of the Memorial after 56 holes — a moment that was caught on television and made very public — Rahm has since been cleared to play in the US Open.

The bad news for Rahm is that he had a six-shot lead when he was forced to withdraw. The good news is that he was playing well enough to build a six-shot lead in the first place. He’s also a master of Torrey Pines, having won there in the past and regularly carding top-five finishes at the venue. If Rahm can pick up where he left off, it might result in a US Open victory.

Dustin Johnson (+1600)

For starters, Johnson has won this event before and been a factor on several other occasions. However, his game of late has not been as sharp as it normally is. In 10 tournaments this year, Johnson has two top 10s, two missed cuts, and six finishes outside the top 25. He has the game and seasoning to compete anytime and anywhere, but he hasn’t consistently shown it lately despite some flashes.

Bryson DeChambeau (+1800)

One might assume that DeChambeau’s long-hitting style isn’t conducive to US Open setups, even though he won here last year. DeChambeau’s slow-pitch softball swing can potentially overpower this course (and any course, for that matter). Even if he lands in the rough with regularity, he showed last year that he can power through.

The problem is that his game doesn’t appear to be particularly sharp. After winning at the Arnold Palmer and finishing third at the Players Championship, DeChambeau has finished outside the top 30 in four of six events. That doesn’t mean he can’t and won’t win; it just means his form will need to change fast for him to do so.

Jon Rahm 2021 US Open PGA Golfer

Jon Rahm is the betting favorite to win the 2021 US Open (Image: USA Today).

Other Golfers To Watch

Brooks Koepka (+1600)

On the topic of conquering anyone and anywhere in the world of golf, enter Koepka. This year, despite entering the PGA Championship coming off an injury and with little practice, he once again competed as he typically does. This has become the routine, and it’s difficult to assume this year will be any different.

While I can cite iffy performances across the calendar for other golfers as ammunition for why I’m not betting on them, that is not the case when it comes to Koepka. Whether he misses a cut — which he did — doesn’t seem to impact how he plays the next time out. He thrives in these moments. While he won’t be in my stable, I understand why he might be in yours.

Rory McIlroy (+2000)

I am forever conflicted when it comes to betting (or not betting) on McIlroy. No golfer has ever made the golf swing look easier. Stand behind him on the range, and you find yourself hypnotized by the height and sounds and coordinated movement.

But the value in these odds feels off. McIlroy was indeed a winner back in May, which is the good news. He’s also been a factor in majors for a decade now and is still only 32 years old. The results, however, have been somewhat sporadic. He can certainly conquer this field and any golf course, but I’m just not confident he will this week.

Phil Mickelson (+5000)

For now, the days of being a 300/1 long shot are long gone. After winning the PGA Championship last month, Lefty gets a crack at winning his first US Open on a course where he has had mixed results over the years. His recent performances at Torrey Pines have been underwhelming, although his magical short game is undoubtedly a treasured asset given the difficulty around the greens.

Perhaps Mickelson will ride the wave of his recent major into another victory. He still has plenty of distance to keep up with — if not outdrive — a new generation of golfers. But given his age (51) and spotty track record lately, I can’t help but pass on him here. If he pulls this out, it will be one of the most incredible spectacles golf has ever seen (again).

2021 US Open Bet Tips

Torrey Pines Facts & Breakdown

  • It is one of the most spectacular courses on earth. Seriously, the views as the sun sets will be worth all the money you paid for that massive flat screen. And while it isn’t normally considered one of the hardest courses in the country, this, of course, is a US Open.
  • The rough, which has already been noted here, will be brutal because it sets up long. Part of the fun is how challenging this will be.
  • This course is also plenty familiar with hosting this event. The last time Torrey hosted a US Open was 2008. The winner? Tiger Woods. He bested Rocco Mediate in a sudden-death playoff. Of course, we all know what happened next to golf’s great champion.

2021 US Open PGA Predictions: Sleeper Picks To Win

Justin Rose (+4000) To Win

I’m back on the horse. We had a run together at Augusta, and I like him again. Rose shows up in majors, has won at Torrey, and is seasoned enough to take his Masters run a step further. And sure, the long odds are great too.

Lee Westwood (+12500) To Win

He just got married in Vegas, has played well at the course, is enjoying a resurgence of late, and has long odds. It’s a flyer, but one I’m interested in taking.

2021 US Open PGA Predictions: Props To Bet

Jordan Spieth (+2000) To Win

While Spieth isn’t as long as some of the other golfers mentioned above, I believe in him, his overall game, and how it can translate at Torrey. Love the value, all over this.

Xander Schauffele (+350) To Finish Top 5

The guy is a machine in this event. The rub? He hasn’t quite broken through just yet. Still, he has shown he can compete under challenging conditions. I believe that trend continues here.

Collin Morikawa (+200) To Finish Top 10

Like Spieth, Morikawa doesn’t hit it a mile. Also like Spieth, his game is so dynamic in other places that it should make up for it. We’ve seen him win and compete at the highest level. He should be in the mix again.

Thanks for reading The Game Day’s 2021 US Open PGA Predictions! Don’t miss all of our betting picks, including our eventual coverage of the remaining 2021 majors.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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