Saints vs Patriots Predictions Week 3 – NFL Pick of the Day

Frank AmmiranteSenior Sports Writer
Last Updated: Sep 24, 2021

We kept it rolling in Week 2, as the Denver Broncos covered the 6-points, and we won our same game parlay, as the Under 45 points also cashed. We’re hot right now, but let’s keep it going in Week 3! This week, we’re going to talk about the game between the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots.

The Saints followed up their impressive blowout win against the Green Bay Packers with a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Patriots took care of business by dismantling the New York Jets after a costly home loss against the division rival Miami Dolphins in Week 1.

Let’s find out which side you should bet on in this inter-conference clash between two playoff contenders.

Best Bet: Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings

For in-depth analysis of this NFL bet of the day, continue reading. Please note that all odds are current as of Friday, September 24.

Sportsbook Play of the Day

Before placing your Saints vs. Patriots bet picks, you should know that BetMGM Sportsbook is one of the best around, offering tons of promotions and a fantastic $1,000 risk-free welcome bonus to new signups using our promo code .

Read Anthony Cervino’s BetMGM Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading our NFL pick of the day.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Prediction

Both of these offenses have looked underwhelming so far. While the Saints did score 38 points against the Packers, that was aided by two turnovers.

This offense struggled last week against the Panthers, with quarterback Jameis Winston averaging only 5.05 yards per attempt. New Orleans currently ranks 18th in pass DVOA and 29th in run DVOA.

The Patriots have found some success with rookie quarterback Mac Jones as the game manager, leaning on their running game with Damien Harris and James White. However, this is a ball-control offense with limited explosiveness. New England is 22nd in pass DVOA and 11th in run DVOA.

Both of these defenses have been rock solid so far. The Saints have limited opposing running backs to 2.7 yards per carry, which could make it difficult for the Patriots’ run-heavy offense. New Orleans is 3rd in run DVOA but 12th in pass DVOA, making them more vulnerable to the passing game.

The Patriots picked off rookie Zach Wilson four times last week. They rank 2nd in pass DVOA but can be beaten on the ground, placing 23rd in run DVOA.

The issue for the Patriots is that the Saints have one star on offense in Alvin Kamara. We all know how head coach Bill Belichick thrives at limiting his opponent’s best player.

This profiles as a gritty, defensive game with points at a premium. That makes it difficult to lay points with the favorite here, as it could be tough for Mac Jones to do much against this imposing Saints defense. This game should come down right to the wire, so I’ll take New Orleans plus the points here.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints 21, New England Patriots 17

Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints

Saints quarterback Jameis Winston looks to get back to Week 1 form when New Orleans takes on the Patriots in Week 3. (Image: USA TODAY)

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Best Bets

Best Bet: Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings

The Saints are in a good bounce-back spot following a let-down game against the Panthers. They have the better quarterback and defense here. I’d rather have the underdog in a low-scoring game like this one.

It could be tough for the Patriots to establish their running game against this Saints stout rush defense. This might force Mac Jones to air it out, which could lead to some turnovers here. Take the Saints plus the points.

Best Bet: Under 42 (-110) at BetMGM

Saints games have combined for 41 and 33 points this season, while Patriots games have gone for 33 and 31 points. The Saints rank 26th in pace in neutral game scripts (score is within seven points), and the Patriots are 24th.

These are two slow-paced teams that rely on their defense and running game. While 42 points is a super low bar to clear in today’s NFL, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this game combine for fewer than 35 points. I’d play it safe with the under here.

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Same Game Parlay Pick

Saints +2.5 & Under 42.5 Total Points (+260) at BetMGM

The Saints and the under look like the right side because points should be hard to come by, making it more appealing to take the underdog plus the points. The slow-paced nature of this game should lead to longer drives that eat up more clock.

The only way that I see this game going over is if Jameis Winston reverts to his turnover-prone ways or Mac Jones does the same while forced to air it out against this defense.

Both of these teams are similarly matched, but I’d give a slight edge to the Saints because they have the better quarterback (Winston) and high-end talent (Kamara).


Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for 4for4 Football and RotoBaller. Frank is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association while maintaining an active presence within the community. He has competed in industry contests like the Scott Fish Bowl, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and more. Frank will be making his debut in Tout Wars this year. He's got a diverse sporting background, but specializes in football and baseball.

Related articles


Get $1,500 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets or First Bet Safety Net

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get A Bonus Bet Up to $1,000

5 stars

Get $150 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get Up To $250 2nd Chance Bonus Bet

5 stars

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY).

Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI).

All betting content on is exclusively intended for audience members 21 years and older who are permitted to gamble in legal states. The Game Day may earn revenue from site visitor referrals to betting services.

Responsible Gaming: Many sportsbooks offer ways to encourage responsible gaming, including the establishment of limits to deposits, spending, and time dedicated to betting.

The Game Day is a TGD Marketing Ltd. endeavor.