Welcome to Week 6! As usual, we’ll be looking for opportunities where players are stepping into bigger roles and/or players with juicy matchups that could lead to extreme value.
We’re a little over a quarter of the way through the season, so we can finally start taking trends more seriously and use them as factors that will be key to winning NFL props.
All NFL gameday odds for Week 6 player prop bets are current as of October 15 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Best Bet: Geno Smith Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
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Best NFL Player Props Week 6
Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- James Robinson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
- James Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
- James Robinson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-125) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit on Receiving Yards/Rushing Attempts; 0.5 Unit on Receiving Yards
We know London games can be tricky, but both of these teams have been locked into relatively predictable patterns so far this season. James Robinson is coming off back-to-back games with 18 carries and has put up 78 and 149 rushing yards, respectively.
While Robinson has only caught one ball in each of his last two games, he saw 15 targets over his first three games and put up more than 17 receiving yards in each of those games. With the Jaguars now relying on the likes of Tavon Austin (is it 2015 again?!), Robinson is likely to be worked into the passing game more.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins run defense has been a sieve as they’ve allowed 133.6 rushing yards per game to opposing teams. They’ve also seen opposing teams run the ball over 30 times per game over the last five weeks, so the Jaguars should continue that trend this week. I expect a big game from Robinson and I don’t see Carlos Hyde cutting into his carries too much.
James Robinson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
James Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
James Robinson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-125) at Caesars
Trevor Lawrence Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
Trevor Lawrence has had his struggles this year, but he’s coming off one of his more productive games in which he threw for 273 yards against the Titans. While he’s without D.J. Chark for the rest of the season, the rookie is finally looking more comfortable in the pocket and shouldn’t have too much difficulty hitting the 236-yard milestone.
The Dolphins have a good pass defense on paper, but they’ve been giving up over 288 yards per game to opposing offenses.
Trevor Lawrence Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1.5 Unit
Marquise Brown has quietly emerged as one of the best receivers in the NFL this season. He’s yet to put up less than 53 receiving yards in a game through the first five weeks, and is averaging 90.2 receiving yards per game to start off the season.
While the Chargers have a very solid pass defense, Hollywood is being targeted almost eight times per game as he’s one of the two reliable pass-catching options that Lamar Jackson has right now. With that type of volume, he should be a solid bet to top 60 yards this week.
Marquise Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Justin Herbert Over 293.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
You may be looking at 293.5 yards as a lot of yards. But it’s also Justin Herbert’s world right now, and we’re all just living in it. Herbert has gone over 300 yards in three of five games this season, and is facing a Ravens defense that isn’t in the same universe as the Ravens defenses we’ve become accustomed to over the years.
Justin Herbert should let it fly for the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6 against the Baltimore Ravens, which means you should be his Week 6 NFL Player Prop for Over on the passing yards. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
The Ravens are giving up 296.4 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks through five weeks, which is a number that Herbert and the high-flying Chargers passing attack should be able to take advantage of.
Justin Herbert Over 293.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
Dak Prescott Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
Dak Prescott Under 276.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
Dak Prescott will never be confused with Lamar Jackson, but he’s still been running the ball post-injury. He’s run the ball more than four times in three of five games this season, and is averaging 12 rushing yards per game. With this prop at 7.5, all he really has to do is register one scramble against a VERY slow Patriots linebacker corps.
While Prescott is coming off a 403-yard passing game, it’s easy to forget that he put up passing yardage totals of 237, 238, and 188 in his three games before that. He’ll head into Foxborough facing a tough Patriots pass defense has been able to limit opposing quarterbacks to 206.6 passing yards per game this season.
Dak Prescott Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
Dak Prescott Under 276.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Jonnu Smith Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
Jonnu Smith hasn’t exactly paid his return on investment yet for the Patriots, but he’s also seeing enough usage (4.6 targets per game) that this wager looks pretty solid this week.
Smith has topped 18 yards in three of five games thus far, and he gets to face a Cowboys defense that is allowing 66 yards per game to opposing tight ends. And while he’ll split tight end targets with Hunter Henry, Smith should still be able to account for more than 17.5 yards.
Jonnu Smith Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Jakobi Meyers Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
The Cowboys come into the week among the bottom-3 teams in the league in terms of yards allowed to opposing wide receivers. Meyers has seen a whopping 31 targets over his last three games, that have turned into 73.3 yards per game during that span (at a clip of 10.47 yards per reception). Though he’s yet to find the end zone this season, Meyers is seeing enough attention that he should be a solid bet to top 61.5 yards in a game where the Patriots are likely to be playing from behind and throwing the ball a lot.
Jakobi Meyers Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Geno Smith Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
Yes, it’s Geno Smith. And no, he’s not Russell Wilson. But Geno actually managed to look pretty good in relief of Mr. Unlimited last week. With 10 days to prepare for Week 6, Smith has had the opportunity get plenty of first-team reps with the best receiving corps he’s every played with.
The Steelers are giving up 272 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and should have a very tough time limiting Smith, Tyler Lockett, and D.K. Metcalf to under 226 passing yards this week.
Geno Smith Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Best Bet: Davis Mills Over 216.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
I can’t believe I’m writing about Geno Smith and Davis Mills as my two best bets this week, yet here we are! In a surprisingly aggressive game plan against the Patriots, Mills looked like the best rookie quarterback from the 2021 draft class in Week 5.
The Colts, on the other hand, look like a mess on defense as they allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for 442 yards last week. They’re currently allowing 274 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, which makes this prop appealing, despite the fact it features Davis Mills.
I wouldn’t blame anyone for scoffing at the topic of this pick, but the combination of the low yardage total and favorable matchup has me intrigued.
Davis Mills Over 216.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
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