The Dolphins continued to make serious strides under head coach Brian Flores in 2020, taking a momentous leap from 2019’s 5-11 mark to a 10-6 record that left them just shy of the playoffs. Miami did get Tua Tagovailoa some valuable experience during the second half of the season and enhanced the second-year pro’s arsenal this offseason in an effort to keep up with, and ideally overtake, the reigning champion Buffalo Bills. The Game Day is here to preview some of the best Dolphins prop bets for 2021.
Dolphins Prop Bets 2021: Best Miami Odds + Betting Picks
Dolphins Prop Bets 2021: Team Bet Picks
Miami Dolphins: Over 9.5 Wins (+110)
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The Dolphins rode a solid 7-5 conference record and 5-3 marks both home and away to get their 10 wins in 2020, and this season, they have one additional game to work with. Miami’s 2021 strength of schedule is tied for No. 27 in the NFL, as this season’s opponents had a collective .471 winning percentage in 2020.
The Bills will naturally be a tough nut for the Fins to crack in their division, even though Miami nearly pulled off a 31-28 upset at home in Week 2 last season. However, the Patriots and particularly the Jets present as winnable matchups for Flores’ squad, even as both teams should be improved from the ones we saw a year ago.
The Dolphins’ non-division schedule includes matchups against the Jaguars, Texans, Falcons, and Panthers, which have the chance to result in wins. They’ll also play an inconsistent Raiders team, and they’ll catch the Colts in the Florida humidity in Week 4 with Carson Wentz very likely still out of action with his foot injury.
Given expected improvements from Tua Tagovailoa and the extra punch the air attack should have with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, I like Miami to at least match its win total from last season.
Miami Dolphins To Make Playoffs (+115)
Given my assumption of at least a 10-7 mark for Flores’ squad, I’d say taking a (+115) shot on Miami also making the playoffs is worthwhile. The Fins are undoubtedly smarting as an organization from coming so close to the postseason in 2020, and their offseason moves were geared for upping their overall firepower in an effort to get over the hump.
Assuming the Bills validate their standing as AFC East favorites and take the crown again, Miami will be aiming for one of three wild-card spots. There will be plenty of competition from a pool of teams that includes the likes of the Steelers, Ravens, Browns, and potentially, the Colts and Raiders, but I see the Dolphins playing well enough at season’s end to get in via that route.
Dolphins Prop Bets 2021: Player Bet Picks
Tua Tagovailoa Over 24.5 Passing TDs (-105)
The Dolphins let Tagovailoa take the reins of the offense beginning in Week 9, when he took on the Rams in his first NFL start. What followed was quite the statistical rollercoaster the rest of the way, as the rookie failed to throw for 100 yards on three occasions overall but also put together a pair of 300-yard efforts, as well as 248- and 296-yard tallies.
Tagovailoa did gain plenty of valuable reps and threw for 11 touchdowns in his nine starts. Last season’s offensive coordinator Chan Gailey headed back into retirement, but Eric Studesville and George Godsey offer Tagovailoa a certain amount of continuity as co-holders of the job this season. The Alabama product will also get some soft pass defenses to work against (based on last year’s numbers), as nine 2021 opponents finished in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per game allowed and seven in passing touchdowns per game surrendered.
With new explosive weapons like Fuller and former college teammate Waddle, plus Albert Wilson returning from an opt-out year and already looking highly impressive in camp, at least 25 TD passes is certainly within Tua’s reach.
Myles Gaskin Under 775.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Dolphins admittedly showed plenty of faith in Gaskin by not drafting a RB until the seventh round (Gerrid Doaks), but they did bring in capable veteran Malcolm Brown in free agency and also have impressive holdover Salvon Ahmed, who looked good in a couple of spot starts in 2020.
Given that each player brings some unique skills and all three can catch, this has the look of a potential committee backfield over the course of the season. None of the three backs have ever logged more than Gaskin’s 142 carries from last season in their careers, and Flores and his coordinators could well opt to keep all three in reasonably striking distance of what have been their comfort zones. Moreover, Tagovailoa should be a lot more active through the air as he works through his first full season as a starter with an impressive array of pass-catching weapons.
Mike Gesicki Over 665.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Fuller and Waddle get plenty of press due to their explosiveness and speed, the incumbent starting tight end is certainly no pushover. Mike Gesicki has accumulated 104 receptions for 1,273 yards and 11 touchdowns over the last two seasons, seeing an impressive 174 targets during that span.
The Penn State product displayed some strong chemistry with Tagovailoa last season, posting a 34-514-4 line over the last eight games of 2020. While he didn’t record any 100-yard efforts while playing with the rookie, Gesicki finished off the year trending upward by averaging 5.8 receptions for 63.5 yards in the last four contests of the campaign.
Gesicki will have up to 17 games to work with this coming season and should remain an important part of the passing attack despite the offseason additions. Waddle is a rookie that could take some time to get up to speed, while Fuller has a problematic injury history that almost assures he’ll miss some time. When also considering Gesicki garnered 703 yards in 15 games last season, he has a very realistic chance of hitting this mark in 2021.