Bucks vs Suns Game 5 Prediction: 2021 NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Picks

Last Updated: Jul 19, 2021

Here’s The Game Day’s Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns Game 5 Prediction with 2021 NBA Finals Picks.

Devin Booker exploded for 42 points, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the hungry Bucks in Game 4. No other Sun scored over 15 points and the team committed a whopping 17 turnovers Wednesday night. Chris Paul committed five turnovers and scored a series-low 10 points on 5-of-13 shooting from the floor. The Suns also allowed 17 offensive rebounds and numerous second-chance points.

After a couple of mediocre performances in Games 2 and 3, Khris Middleton stepped up in a big way in Game 4, dropping a season-high 40 points on 15-of-33 shooting from the field. Giannis Antetokounmpo added 26 points, 14 rebounds, and eight assists, while Jrue Holiday struggled to find his rhythm offensively, scoring 13 points on just 4-of-20 shooting. Despite Holiday’s off night, the Bucks were able to secure the victory by taking care of the basketball and by getting to the free-throw line early and often.

With the Bucks’ win, it’s now a best-of-three series heading back to Phoenix for Game 5. Despite the loss, the Suns remain in the driver’s seat with two of the last three games at home.

Game 5 of the 2021 NBA Finals will start at 9:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, July 17, and will air on ABC, with Phoenix favored to win by four points at home, per BetMGM.

All Bucks-Suns Game 5 odds, lines, and bets are courtesy of BetMGM. BetMGM offers a Risk-Free Bet for up to $600 for new players.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns Game 5 Analysis

As a team, the Suns shot the ball surprisingly well in Game 4 at 51.3% from the field. But they couldn’t hit a three-point shot to save their lives (7-of-23) and they turned the ball over 17 times. In comparison, the Bucks turned it over just five times.

The Bucks didn’t shoot the ball particularly well at just 40.2% from the field, but they were able to make up for it by getting to the charity stripe 29 times, hitting 82.8% of their free throws. Giannis and company were tenacious on the offensive glass as well, ripping down 17 boards that led to numerous second-chance opportunities.

One of the keys for Milwaukee in this series is having another guy step up alongside Antetokounmpo. Middleton was that guy in Game 4 and sure enough, the Bucks came out on top. If they’re going to win the series, they’re going to have to beat the Suns at least once in Phoenix, something they haven’t been able to in three attempts this season.

After dropping two straight on the road, the Suns head back to Phoenix for Game 5. They’re 8-2 at home in the playoffs and have lost just three straight games one time this season. Devin Booker missed two of those three straight losses back in January. Look for Chris Paul and company to come out aggressive in Game 5, using the crowd to their advantage early. The Suns won Games 1 and 2 by an average of 11.5 points, so I’ll take Phoenix -4 in this one.

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys To Victory

  • Holiday and Middleton step up on offense.
  • Keep their foot on the gas and take the home crowd out of the game early.
  • Control the pace of the game and limit fast-break opportunities for the Suns.
  • Continue to crash the glass on offense and get second-chance points.

Phoenix Suns: Keys To Victory

  • Get Chris Paul going from the jump.
  • Keep Milwaukee off the offensive glass.
  • Use the crowd to your advantage by starting fast.
  • Find other scoring options outside of Devin Booker.

2021 NBA Finals Game 5 Betting Predictions

2021 NBA Finals Game 5 Player Prop Bets

Chris Paul has to be better in Game 5 if the Suns want to take control of the series. In the first two games at home, CP3 averaged 40 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). In the two road games, he averaged just 24.5 PRA. I expect him to come out very aggressive in Game 5, recording more than 33.5 PRA.

Because I think Chris Paul takes over in Game 5, I’m subsequently fading Devin Booker at his 38.5 PRA line. He’s gone over this number in just two of his last nine playoff games. In those two games, he drained seven three-pointers in one of them and dropped 42 points in the other. Take the under here.

Jrue Holiday won’t continue to miss shots forever. He’s shooting just 33.3% from the field in the series but was a 50.3% shooter during the regular season and is a 45.7% shooter for his career. Look for Middleton to fall back to earth after his 40-point explosion in Game 4, leaving plenty of opportunities for Holiday to put up more points. Despite only going over 18 points once thus far in the series, I believe he stays aggressive and scores at least 19 points in a crucial Game 5.

2021 NBA Finals Game 5 Single-Game Parlay

  • Chris Paul (Suns): Over 33.5 PRA (-120) at BetMGM
  • Devin Booker (Suns): Under 38.5 PRA (-120) at BetMGM
  • Jrue Holiday (Bucks): Over 18.5 Points (-130) at BetMGM

Make a Single-Game Parlay with these bets (+494) at BetMGM:

Check out our full 2021 NBA Finals Game 5 picks + analysis:

Bucks vs Suns 2021 NBA Finals Schedule

  • Game 1: Bucks 105, Suns 118
  • Game 2: Bucks 108, Suns 118
  • Game 3: Suns 100, Bucks 120
  • Game 4: Suns 103, Bucks 109
  • Game 5: Saturday, July 17, at Phoenix, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • Game 6: Tuesday, July 20, at Milwaukee, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
  • Game 7: Thursday, July 22, at Phoenix, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)*

*If necessary


Adam Koffler

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