Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Bet of the Day: NBA Finals Game 5 Best Bets

Last Updated: Jul 15, 2021

For Saturday, Jason Radowitz has your Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Bet of the Day: Best Bets for the NBA Finals. All odds for NBA Bet of the Day: Best Bets Today 7/17/21 were provided by our friends at BetMGM.

It looks as though home-court advantage is a real thing in the playoffs.

The Phoenix Suns grabbed the first two games of the NBA Finals at home, but the Milwaukee Bucks found a way to even things at 2-2 with two home wins of their own. As things stand, home-court advantage is still on Phoenix’s side, as the Suns will have two home games of the remaining three if the series goes the distance.

Game 4 was a bit different than the first three games of the series. The Suns shot 51.3% from the field but took 19 fewer shots than the Bucks. Although the Suns were more efficient from three-point range and shot a higher percentage from the foul line, it simply wasn’t enough to overcome their deficit on the defensive glass.

The Bucks secured 17 offensive rebounds and continued being aggressive, earning 29 free-throw attempts and sinking 24. They needed every board they could get, too, considering they shot just 7-for-29 from deep and 40.2% from the field.

It was a disaster of a shooting night for the Bucks, but seeing how they can win despite shooting a low percentage from the field has to be encouraging. There are four keys to the game. It comes down to shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws. If you’re able to do three of those better than your opponent, you’re likely going to win the game.

While the Bucks didn’t shoot the ball well, they won the turnover battle 17 to five, hit eight more foul shots and out-rebounded the Suns by eight, including 12 more offensive rebounds.

It’s hard to be consistent shooting the ball, but it’s not hard to be consistent with effort and hustle. The Bucks took a poor shooting night and did all the little things to ensure they got the victory in Game 4.

Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Bet of the Day: NBA Finals Game 5 Best Bets

This series is getting exciting. We’re tied at two games apiece, and we’ve seen plenty of different outcomes throughout each game of this series. It’s getting a bit unpredictable behind poor shooting and effort games from both teams in the Finals.

What stood out the most was Khris Middleton taking 33 shots and scoring 40 points for the Bucks in their Game 4 win. Middleton has been inconsistent all playoffs and put together a masterful performance when the rest of his teammates were struggling from the floor.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was also spectacular for the Bucks, scoring 26 points and hauling in 14 rebounds on the night. He also almost finished with a triple-double, accumulating eight assists.

Once again, Jrue Holiday struggled offensively, which has been a theme all playoffs. He went 4-of-20, missed layups and didn’t make a single three on five attempts. However, he did add seven rebounds and seven assists, continuing a trend of doing the little things to help Milwaukee. Still, the Bucks will need Holiday to step up offensively if they want to win the title.

The Suns, on the other hand, are not rebounding the ball well. It’s Deandre Ayton or nobody on the boards. He collected 17 rebounds in 39 minutes. Jae Crowder chipped in for eight rebounds. After him, though, not a single Suns player had more than five rebounds in this game.

By shooting numbers, Phoenix easily should have won this game. But if they’ve got no player crashing the glass and helping Ayton on the boards, the Bucks have a chance to steal Saturday’s Game 5 and play at home for the chance to win it all.

Efficient shooting isn’t enough when the Suns aren’t aggressive and scared of contact. The Suns should never lose the turnover battle behind Chris Paul, but they got hit hard in Game 4. That needs to change in Game 5.

NBA Finals Game 5 Bet of the Day: Deandre Ayton

Over 12.5 Rebounds (-110)

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At this point, it’s obvious that Deandre Ayton is Phoenix’s best bet when it comes to crashing the boards and limiting the Bucks on the offensive end. If Milwaukee struggled shooting at home, there’s plenty of doubt that the Bucks can shoot well on the road.

As long as Ayton stays out of foul trouble and can play around 40 minutes in this game, his chances of rebounding 13 misses are high. He’s already averaging 14 rebounds per game in the Finals, including Game 3, where he only played 24 minutes and was in foul trouble throughout the game. As a result, Phoenix lost that contest by 20.

Against the LA Clippers in the Western Conference Finals, Ayton averaged 13.7 rebounds per game and played 35 or more minutes in each one without getting into foul trouble.

As long as Ayton is out there 40 minutes, 13 rebounds seems like an attainable goal. Nobody else on the Suns is even helping out on the glass. But this time, at home, the Suns’ hustle and aggressiveness might change. The Bucks offense should still struggle in this one, and that will lead to plenty of rebounds for Ayton.

Check out our full 2021 NBA Finals Game 5 picks + analysis:

NBA Finals Game 5 Bet of the Day: Chris Paul

Over 21.5 Points (-105)

NBA Finals Game 5 Bet of the Day: Jrue Holiday

Under 18.5 Points (-105)

NBA Finals Game 5 Bet of the Day:

Phoenix Suns (-165)

Home-court advantage is no joke right now. The Suns shot the ball very well in Milwaukee, but the Bucks feasted off the energy in the building and did the little things to win. All of that will change in Game 5. The Suns will be home, and they’ll shoot better without question. On top of that, they’ll be the team benefitting from the energy. They’ll be the ones being aggressive and the team to force more turnovers.

In Game 1 at home, the Suns shot better from the field, nailed more foul shots, limited turnovers and were competitive on the boards. In Game 2, again, the Suns shot better than the Bucks, made a much higher percentage of their foul shots and stayed nearly even on the glass and with turnovers.

But in Games 3 and 4, the Suns got smoked on the glass, losing the battle by 11 in Game 3 and by eight in Game 4. The Suns also committed 18 more turnovers in those two games. At home, the Suns have a good chance of getting back to their style of basketball, which is limiting turnovers, shooting well and staying aggressive to get to the line.

Milwaukee Bucks: Game 5 Keys To Victory

  • Continue doing the little things: The Bucks didn’t shoot well at all in Game 4, but they found ways to win because they were the more aggressive team. They’ll have to do all of this on the road now. It’ll be a challenge, but if the Bucks want Game 5, they’ll have to hustle.
  • Make shots: Clearly, you have to make shots if you want to win on the road. Shooting 40.2% from the field is not going to cut it. Antetokounmpo needs help offensively. He got it from Middleton, but truth be told, he’s struggled at times. Holiday has been much more inconsistent. In these final three games, especially Game 5, those two need to step up along with Milwaukee’s role players.
  • Stay gritty: It’s not just the turnovers — it’s also the rebounds. This team needs to stay gritty. They dominated the Suns on the glass and defensively by forcing turnovers. That propelled the Bucks to win Game 4 and tie the series up despite the poor shooting. No matter if shots are falling, the Bucks need to be aggressive.

Phoenix Suns: Game 5 Keys To Victory

  • More shots, fewer turnovers: The Suns took 19 fewer shots than the Bucks in Game 4. That’s unacceptable. The Bucks had 17 offensive rebounds and out-rebounded the Suns by nearly 20 rebounds in the last two games. Fewer turnovers and more shots, please. The law of averages will prove that the more shots taken and fewer turnovers, the higher chance at scoring points.
  • Rebound: Does anyone want to help Ayton on the boards? The man grabbed 17 rebounds and the Bucks still destroyed the Suns on the glass in Game 4. Ayton has been great, but they’ll need other guys to step up in big spots to grab rebounds.
  • Stop fouling: Is it fatigue or laziness? Is it the officials or just plain bad defense? Regardless, the Bucks had 29 foul shots attempted in Game 4. At home, the Suns have to be the team with more foul shots scored and attempted. Do not let the Bucks get to the line at will as they did at home in Games 3 and Game 4.


Jason Radowitz

Jason Radowitz is a jack of all trades when it comes to writing sports. Jason writes and bets the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB when the sports are in season. Currently, he's a Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day providing daily content in the MLB. Earlier in his sports career, Jason was a graduate assistant for the University of Hartford Men's Basketball team using analytics and numbers to help put together the winningest season in program history. With his articles, you will be sure to get an analytical approach.

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