For Wednesday, Jason Radowitz has your Bucks vs. Suns Game 4 Bet of the Day: Best Bets for the NBA Finals. All odds for NBA Bet of the Day: Best Bets Today 7/14/21 were provided by our friends at BetMGM.
Through the first quarter of Game 3, it looked as though the Phoenix Suns were going to rally past the Milwaukee Bucks and go up 3-0 against the Bucks in the NBA Finals. But a huge second quarter and consistent second half propelled the Bucks past the Suns on their home floor to keep the series close.
The series is now 2-1 with the Suns still leading. However, the Bucks will get a second home game on Wednesday looking to even the series at two games apiece.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has now put together back-to-back 40-point, 10-rebound games in the Finals. The only other player to put up those numbers in NBA Finals history was Shaquille O’Neal.
The Bucks were the favorites on their home floor despite dropping the first two games of the series. At -4.5, the Bucks easily covered, winning 120-100. Each game in the Finals has been won by double digits. It’s been an exciting NBA Finals, but a little late-game buzzer-beater action would be nice.
Game 4 will have lines that mirrored game three. The Bucks are currently four-point favorites, and the total is set at 220.
After shooting lights out in Game 2, the Suns, on the road, shot under 30 percent from long range with Devin Booker only scoring 10 points. No player on the Suns scored 20 or more points in the third game. Meanwhile, the Bucks got solid contribution from Antetokounmpo but also from Khris Middleton, who scored 18 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in 41 minutes.
Jrue Holiday was the x-factor for Milwaukee. After scoring just 27 points combined in the first two Finals games, Holiday scored 21 points on 8-of-14 from the field while going 5-of-10 from long range. He also assisted on nine baskets and brought down five rebounds.
Bucks vs Suns Game 4 Bet of the Day: NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bets
The Suns are deep and we’ve said this every game. But when their true stars aren’t hitting shots, it’s going to be a struggle. In Game 3, Chris Paul and Devin Booker combined to go 2-of-11 from downtown and scored just 29 points on 28 attempts from the field.
Throughout the playoffs, the Suns have been a bit inconsistent when it comes to contributions. Jae Crowder has had some really poor shooting games, but also nailed 6-of-7 from long range in Game 3. Without Crowder nailing those threes, the Suns could’ve really been embarrassed. It’s also not a good look when Cameron Johnson plays 30 minutes and scores more points than Booker in a Finals game.
Booker had ice in his veins in Game 2 but quickly went cold in Game 3.
Check out our full 2021 NBA Finals Game 4 picks + analysis:
- Bucks vs Suns Game 4 Prediction
- Bucks vs Suns Game 4 Bet of the Day
- Bucks vs Suns Game 4 Prop Bets
- Bucks vs Suns Game 4 Parlay Bet
The reality is, the Suns need to find ways to get Deandre Ayton more involved. He will be the most efficient player on the team thanks to his jump hook. Nobody on the Bucks will be able to defend those. Who can guard Ayton down low? Brook Lopez is weak down low and doesn’t even play all that much. Meanwhile, P.J. Tucker doesn’t have the length to guard Ayton down low.
If the Bucks want to defend with length, they’ll have to settle for Bobby Portis. He’s got the ability, but if he’s not producing offensively, he’ll be a waste out there, especially on the floor with Tucker as well. The Bucks can’t have Portis and Tucker on the court at the same time if Portis isn’t striving offensively.
Of course, Portis went off for 11 points and gave the Bucks plenty of energy in the first half. Since then, he was quiet but his energy certainly helped on the home floor.
The big test was for Jrue Holiday and he showed up in the third game with the crowd cheering for him instead of against him.
On their home floor, the Bucks were still the aggressor and while they missed more shots than the Suns, they dominated the offensive glass while also winning the free throw battle. Those were keys to the game for the Bucks. On their home floor, Milwaukee needed to stay aggressive, get to the line more, win the rebounding battle and shoot better from long range. They did all of those things way more than the Suns and that was the difference.
NBA Finals Game 4 Bet of the Day: Deandre Ayton
Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
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I’m not going to say the Suns win Game 4, but I know for a fact they’ll have to make some adjustments in this one. The Suns were out-rebounded 47 to 36 and shot 48.2 percent from the floor. It was the missed threes, the missed free throws, a higher amount of turnovers, and the lack of assists that factored into them losing Game 3.
Plain and simple, it was a bad game for the Suns. But they’ll learn some things from this game and make adjustments, as I just said earlier.
With that, they’ll realize that Deandre Ayton needs to get more involved. Ayton needs to stay out of foul trouble and when he’s able to do that, he’ll get getting plenty of opportunities down low. The Suns are usually not the team that struggles to assist on baskets, but Sunday’s game was just that. The Suns didn’t have great ball movement and really struggled winning loose balls and gaining possessions off missed shots by the Bucks.
The two things the Suns need to do better is assist on more baskets and rebound the basketball. That’s going to be Ayton’s job. The Suns outshot the Bucks, percentage-wise, and still ended up losing because they weren’t able to keep the Suns from getting second-chance buckets.
The reality is the Bucks really don’t have anyone that can guard Ayton and his hook shots. Ayton is a force down low and they need to realize that more. If shots aren’t falling from long range, the Suns need to play inside and out and stay aggressive down low with easier buckets so they don’t fall behind in this game.
With that, Ayton should be utilized a bunch in Game 4 and will likely earn a double-double for his efforts.
NBA Finals Game 4 Bet of the Day: Jrue Holiday
Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)
NBA Finals Game 4 Bet of the Day: Khris Middleton
Under 24.5 Points (-110)
NBA Finals Game 4 Bet of the Day: Devin Booker
Over 2.5 Threes Made (+105)
Devin Booker played just 29 minutes in Game 3 and shot 3-of-14 from the field and went 1-of-7 from deep. Those seven shots were early in the game and he was benched towards the end of the contest after a horrible shooting night.
In Game 2, Booker was ruthless and went 7-of-12 from downtown, but he was at home in Phoenix. During the season, Booker had been better at shooting from long range on the road. It didn’t translate into yesterday’s matchup, but I’d imagine it’ll be very difficult to duplicate a 10-point performance while going 1-of-7 from three.
Now we’re getting Booker to nail three threes at plus money. For the number of attempts he’s had in this series, you have to take this bet. He’s attempted 27 threes in the first three games of the series. That’s nine per game. If Game 4 is closer and there’s no immediate blowout, Booker should be able to get in form and nail three three-pointers.
Milwaukee Bucks: Game 4 Keys To Victory
- Continue to Crash the Boards: In Game 3’s preview, I had said that the Bucks need to defend the three-point shot better. Milwaukee listened and held the Suns to 29 percent from three. After limiting their opponents from the three-point line, they crashed the glass and won the rebounding battle on the defensive end. But what was more impressive was how the Bucks put together 13 offensive rebounds. The Bucks shot worse than the Suns from the field, but those rebounds and second chances helped them plenty.
- Make Foul Shots: At home, the Bucks have to win the free throw battle. We said this Game 3 and we’ll say it again. They need to make foul shots, especially Antetokounmpo. He did fine in Game 3. He’ll have to shoot just as well in Game 4 along with the rest of the roster.
- Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have to perform: This was the same key for Game 3. In Game 3, Middleton and Holiday combined for 39 points, 15 assists, and 12 rebounds. If they can put those numbers up while Antetokounmpo scores 40 points and 10+ rebounds a night, the Bucks will always have a chance to win. Those guys stepped up at home, and they’ll need to do that again to even the series at 2.
Phoenix Suns: Game 4 Keys To Victory
- Feed Ayton: It’s obvious that the Bucks can’t defend Deandre Ayton. They don’t have the length to defend his hook shots and Ayton is so good down low. He went 8-of-11 from the field but only played 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Ayton needs to get involved early and refrain from fouling. If he can do that, Ayton will have a big night. The Suns are going to have trouble shooting in Milwaukee. So to say in the game, they’ll have to get easy points with Ayton.
- More Ball Movement: Game 3 was the first time Milwaukee played together as a team throughout the Finals. It was all the first time the Suns looked lost offensively. They missed a bunch of shots, made some costly turnovers, and didn’t have the ball movement that wins championships. That has to change in Game 4.
- Defensive Rebound: The Suns allowed the Bucks to secure 13 offensive rebounds in Game 3. That’s unacceptable especially playing against an undersized roster beyond Antetokounmpo. One of the main reasons for this was Ayton being in foul trouble, but if the Suns want to win, they’ll have to limit second chances against the Bucks.
