Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Prediction: NBA Eastern Conference Finals Pick

Last Updated: Jun 30, 2021

Here’s The Game Day’s Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Prediction with NBA Eastern Conference Finals Picks.

The Milwaukee Bucks stole one on the road in Game 3 and will look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead against the Atlanta Hawks in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night. If the Bucks take another game in Atlanta, the Hawks will then have to win three straight (including two in Milwaukee) to reach the NBA Finals, a tall order against Giannis Antetokounmpo and company.

The 2021 NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 4 will start at 8:30 PM ET on June 29, airing on TNT, with the Bucks the favorite by 6.5 points.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Analysis

After taking Game 1 in Milwaukee thanks to a heroic 48-point performance by Trae Young, the Hawks have dropped the last two and now find themselves down 2-1 in the series heading into Game 4.

Speaking of Young, he underwent an MRI Monday that revealed a bone bruise to his right foot that he suffered in Sunday’s Game 3 loss. He rolled his ankle on an official’s foot late in the third quarter and was said to be in a good bit of pain after the game.

Trae Young is officially being listed as questionable, but the chances of him missing this critical Game 4 are slim to none.

Young isn’t the only hobbled Hawk. Bogdan Bogdanovic has also been dealing with his own knee injury over the past handful of games and clearly hasn’t been 100%. After averaging 16.4 points in 39 minutes per game in the first five games of the Philadelphia series, Bogdanovic has averaged just 6.2 points in 26 minutes per game since the injury.

Without a secondary scoring option to take the load off Young, the Hawks have had to rely on John Collins, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari much more on the offensive end.

For the Bucks, it’s been the Giannis Antetokounmpo Show the entire playoffs. Through three games in this series, he’s averaging 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, two steals, and is shooting 59.4% from the floor.

We know Giannis is going to produce on a nightly basis, but he’s also gotten help from the other stars on the team. In Game 1, Jrue Holiday piled up 33 points and 10 assists. In Game 3, Khris Middleton went for a cool 38 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists, leading the comeback in the fourth quarter.

Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have helped the Milwaukee Bucks' scoring in the Eastern Conference Finals

Khris Middleton (22) reacts with guard Jrue Holiday (21) have helped Giannis Antetokounmpo as legit scorers in the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

If both these guys find their rhythm on the same night, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Hawks, regardless of Trae Young’s health.

Don’t forget about the Bucks’ secret weapon: Pat Connaughton. He finished Game 3 with a game-high +/- of +25 in 32 minutes off the bench. Along with Middleton, Connaughton was a sparkplug Sunday in helping Milwaukee take a 2-1 series lead.

As mentioned earlier, the Hawks desperately need to hold court in Game 4 to avoid going down 3-1 in the series. Easier said than done, however, especially with a less than 100% Trae Young.

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys To Victory

  • Slow the game down, and make the Hawks beat them in the half-court.
  • Find a secondary scoring option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.
  • Don’t let the Hawks beat you from beyond the arc.
  • Win on the offensive glass, and get the easy second-chance points.

Atlanta Hawks: Keys To Victory

  • Play up-tempo and get easy fast-break points.
  • Command the defensive glass and prevent Bucks from getting easy second-chance buckets.
  • Generate quick ball movement on offense to free up shooters from deep.
  • Contain Khris Middleton to prevent him from getting into a rhythm early.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks Game 4 Prediction

While it’d be spectacular to see Young will his team to a victory Tuesday night, I don’t see that happening against a better Milwaukee basketball team. Give me the Bucks in Game 4.

The over/under for this game opened at 223.5, so you can see that sharp money pushed the market down as the line currently sits at 219.5. A lot rides on the health of Trae Young and whether he can be fully effective in this one as the Hawks look to regain momentum heading into Game 5.

All Bucks-Hawks Game 4 odds, lines, and bets courtesy of BetMGM. BetMGM offers a Risk-Free Bet for up to $600 for new players.

Over/Under Bet

Under 219.5 Total Points (-110)

We’ve hit the Under on this mark twice thus far in the series. The only game that went over was Game 1 (229 total points), when Trae Young had 48 points and 11 assists. With both Young and Bogdanovic dealing with their respective injuries, another Hawk is going to have to step up if this game is going to remain competitive.

Trae and the Hawks surely won’t give up as they try to defend their home court in Game 4, but the Bucks may have found their recipe for success after two straight victories in Games 2 and 3.

Same-Game Parlay Bet

  • John Collins (Hawks): Over 0.5 Assists
  • Bobby Portis (Bucks): Over 8.5 Points
  • Khris Middleton (Bucks): Under 23.5 Points
  • SGP (+423)


Despite being listed as questionable, it’s inevitable Trae Young plays in this game. That being said, should he reinjure his foot or be ineffective, we could see John Collins with the ball in his hands more. It’s not much, but in six games played without Young this season, Collins had 2 or more assists in three of those games. All we need here is one to hit.

We’ve seen more of Bobby Portis and less of Brook Lopez in this series. That trend should continue as Portis ended Game 3 with a +/- of +17 in 17 minutes, while Lopez was a -17 in 24 minutes. He’s also been more active offensively so far in this series, averaging 11.3 points on nine field-goal attempts in 16.3 minutes per game.

Middleton put up a gaudy stat line in Game 3, but what can we take from that to predict his Game 4 outcome? This season, including playoffs, Middleton has scored over 30 points on eight occasions. He’s gone under 23.5 points in six of the seven games immediately following the 30-point performance. I like this trend to continue tonight.

Moneyline Bet

Milwaukee Bucks To Win (-275)

The Hawks put up a fight in Game 3 but ultimately lost by 11 points after a disastrous fourth quarter where they were torched by Khris Middleton. With Trae Young likely not 100% due to a bone bruise in his right foot, look for the Bucks to steal another one in Atlanta and take a commanding 3-1 series lead.


Adam Koffler

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