2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions, Odds, & Bet Picks

Last Updated: Jul 4, 2021

The Game Day’s Nate Bush gives a preview and offers predictions for the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, set to take place on Sunday, July 4, at 11 a.m. ET at Maimonides Park in Coney Island, NY, and shown live on ESPN. Here are odds and bet picks for the famous Independence Day eating event.

Like baseball and fireworks, hot dogs are a staple of Independence Day festivities in the United States. This year brings us the 105th annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest from Coney Island, which has become a major sporting event in recent years. The world’s biggest competitive eating event — which includes separate contests for men and women — has made celebrities out of several competitors, including multi-time champions Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi.

As with most sporting events, there’s a variety of wagers related to the contest. With that in mind, here are our predictions, odds, and bet picks for the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

All 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests odds, bets, and lines are courtesy of DraftKings. to place your bets on the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions, Odds, & Bet Picks

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Men’s Competition Odds

  • Joey Chestnut To Win (-2000)
  • Any Other Contestant To Win (+1000)

Joey “Jaws" Chestnut has dominated this event for nearly 15 years. Chestnut has won every Nathan’s contest since 2007 except when he was upset in 2015 by Matt Stonie. Not surprisingly, Chestnut is the heavy favorite to win the Mustard Belt again this year.

Chestnut is also the current world record holder after the COVID-shortened event last year saw him consume 75 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, besting his previous record of 74 from 2018. He is currently attempting to break his own record yet again at this year’s event at Coney Island.

While Chestnut is the overwhelming favorite to take the crown again this year, there are a couple of competitors who have an outside shot of knocking him off the hot dog throne. Stonie, who defeated Chestnut back in 2015, could pull off another upset, especially after becoming the world popcorn-eating champion earlier in the year. Also back in the competition is Geoffrey Esper, the world’s No. 2 ranked competitive eater who finished third at the event in 2019.

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions, Odds, & Bet Tips

Reigning champion Joey Chestnut is heavily favored to win the 2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. (Image: USA TODAY)

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Women’s Competition Odds

  • Michelle Lesco To Win (-900)
  • Any Other Contestant To Win (+600)

Normally this would be Miki Sudo‘s event to lose, but the seven-time defending champion is pregnant and won’t be participating this year. That makes the women’s competition up for grabs, as none of the other contestants this year have won a pink Mustard Belt during its 10-year history.

With Sudo on the sidelines this year, Michelle Lesco has emerged as the heavy favorite. Her personal record is 32 hot dogs eaten in 2017, and if she can come close to replicating that she should win easily. While Sudo won with 48.5 hot dogs last year, Larell Marie Mele came in second with 18, giving Lesco plenty of breathing room if she performs up to her potential.

Similar to the men’s competition, there could always be a surprise winner from the field, but the safe money is on Lesco here.

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prediction

On the men’s side, Chestnut is the heavy favorite for a reason. He’s been virtually unbeatable in this event, winning the contest 13 times in the past 14 years. Unless he literally chokes, he’s pretty much a lock to win again this year. The real question is whether he’ll break his own world record again, which he’s done several times now.

In the women’s event, Lesco looks like the clear frontrunner as well. With Sudo out of the event this year, the door is open for Lesco to claim her first Mustard Belt. Nobody else can really compete with her in terms of volume, so she should be able to win the event with room to spare.

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Bet Picks

Joey Chestnut To Win Men’s Event (-2000)

The men’s event is essentially a competition between Chestnut and himself to see if he can surpass his own record again. While I wouldn’t necessarily bet on that happening, his final total will be more than enough win his sixth straight crown and 14th overall.

Michelle Lesco To Win Women’s Event (-900)

Similar to Chestnut, it’s hard to see anyone besides Lesco winning the women’s event based on how far ahead of the field she is. Lesco is the No. 1 ranked female eater in the world, so it would take a massive upset to bring her down in this competition. While she’s never won before, I’m confident she gets over the hump this year with no Sudo to worry about.


Nate Bush

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