Michael Rathburn is here with your MLB Betting Props of the Day for July 16. Which July 16 K props make up the Best Baseball Prop Picks Today 7/16/21.
MLB Betting Props of the Day: Best Baseball Prop Picks Today
Jordan Lyles, SP, Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-133)
Wager: 1 unit
Lyles and the Rangers enter Friday night as +195 road underdogs against the Toronto Blue Jays. Lyles’ strikeout prop is low at 4.5 but if you dig into the numbers especially recently, it is actually a big high.
Lyles has just 24 strikeouts over his last 40.1 innings and the road splits are bad with a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 15.1 innings. His 0.6 strikeout per inning would mean he would have to pitch at least 7 innings tonight to go over the 4.5 strikeout prop. He would be lucky to go 5 innings against this Blue Jays lineup. The Jays have been the 3rd toughest team to strike out in this split over the last 30 days (vs. RHP/Home).
This number is inflated based on my projections and should be closer to 3.5. My projections also have Lyles as a bottom 5 pitcher and the Blue Jays as the #1 lineup tonight.
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Chris Bassitt, SP, Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Indians (9:40 p.m. ET)
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-161)
Wager: 1 unit
Bassitt and the A’s come into Friday night as significant home favorites (-205) and with a low game total of 8 runs. Those are two qualifiers I look for when taking a pitcher strikeout prop Over. His strikeout prop is posted at 5.5 but (-161) -which is higher than what I normally like to lay, but the spot is worth the risk.
Bassitt has extremely favorable home splits with 0.92 strikeouts per inning, 6.6 innings per start, 2.55 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP. In his past eight starts, he has pitched at least 7 innings, he has a 54:8 K/BB, 1.53 ERA, and 0.68 WHIP. The Indians have the eighth-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) in this split (vs. RHP/Away) and the second-lowest wRC+ (64) over the last 30 days.
This number might end up moving to 6.5 with lower juice and I would still take it.