Michael Rathburn is here with your MLB Betting Props of the Day for July 7. Which July 7 K props make up the Best Baseball Prop Picks Today 7/7/21?
MLB Betting Props of the Day: Best Baseball Prop Picks Today
Sean Manaea, SP, Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (8:10 p.m. ET)
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-139)
Wager: 1 unit
When you bet on baseball on a daily basis, you become in tune with certain bet “on” or bet “against” scenarios. This is one of them in which we have a left-handed pitcher in Manaea against the offensive-minded Houston Astros. The Astros are the hardest team to strike out in this split (vs. LHP/Home) at just 17.7% on the season. Manaea averages six strikeouts per game, so I think we have an inflated line here at 5.5, but it is juiced to -139.
Even still, Manaea is likely in line for a four-to-five-strikeout game at best. He faced the Astros at home on May 18 and only struck out three batters over six innings. He also took the mound twice in Houston this year, striking out four batters each time. Look for more of the same tonight.
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Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals (9:45 p.m. ET)
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Wager: 1 unit
One of the things to look for when betting strikeout props is a solid home favorite with a low total. We get that with the Giants tonight (-185, 8.5). One of the biggest keys to winning strikeout props is predicting how many innings a starting pitcher will last.
The longer he goes in the game, the more likely it becomes that the pitcher will go over his strikeout prop. If the team has a high expected win rate with a low-scoring game, that plays into this thought process. Another indicator is to look at the earned runs prop for the starting pitcher (Wood is 2.5 but -175 to the under); this is a large factor in the strikeout prop being only -120 on the over.
Of course, the pitcher has to have a reasonable strikeout rate and hopefully some edge against that road team. The Cardinals are a middling team in this split for strikeout rate (vs. LHP/Road), but their offensive numbers on the road have been poor all year.
They rank dead-last in batting average (.189) and fourth from the bottom in both OPS (.645) and wRC+. They are also only hitting .185 against “power pitchers,” which Wood is qualified as one (top third in strikeout rate and WHIP).
The Giants are 26-13 SU at home, 22-8 as home favorites, and rank as a top-five pitching staff at home in most categories. Wood has struck out at least six batters in nine of his 14 starts (64.2%) and seven out of his last 10 (70%). In addition, his K/9 is much better at home vs. road (10.4 vs. 8.4). All of this adds up to a very strong matchup in favor of the Giants to win and the Cardinals to go under their run total tonight, which is why Wood has a strong chance to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
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