Michael Rathburn is here with your MLB Betting Props of the Day for July 2. See which July 2 K props make up the Best Baseball Prop Picks Today 7/2/21.
MLB Betting Props of the Day: Best Baseball Prop Picks Today
Julio Urías, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET)
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Wager: 1 unit
The landscape of baseball changed in the month of June with more runs being scored and fewer strikeouts as a result of warmer weather, weaker pitching, and MLB’s long-overdue crackdown on the sport’s sticky substance problem. While I was probably betting 90% overs on strikeout props in April and May, I have recently pivoted more towards earned runs, total outs, and unders on strikeout props.
Urías is an interesting case for the under tonight, as he recorded exactly five strikeouts in five of his last six starts. Part of the reason is that he hasn’t been pitching as deep into games, as he completed six innings in just one of those outings. It’s possible that he’s starting to wear down, as he’s already blown past his previous career-high in innings.
Now, he’ll have to face a hot Nationals lineup that just averaged 4.7 runs per game in June and is averaging 6.4 runs per game over their last nine contests. Washington has also been one of the best-hitting teams against lefties this year, ranking fifth in MLB with a 106 wRC+ vs. southpaws. Accordingly, I project Urias at exactly five innings tonight and 4.5 strikeouts, putting him below the 5.5 prop.
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JT Brubaker, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers (7:05 p.m. ET)
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Wager: 1 unit
One of the categories I like to consider when making these bets is whether the pitcher has a significant edge in his home/road splits, and we get that with Brubaker tonight. Brubaker has a 2.67 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, a 9.4 K/9, and a 35:3 K/BB ratio in six home starts this year. He’s averaging just under six Ks per home start this season and has tallied six or more in each of his last two home turns.
The Brewers have been hot lately, but they are also one of the most strikeout-prone teams in baseball with MLB’s sixth-highest K rate (25.9%) this season. Brubaker’s opponent, Adrian Houser, has struggled with a 4.81 FIP and a 1.39 WHIP, so there’s a good chance Brubaker will be pitching with a lead tonight. Accordingly, Brubaker should be able to attack the strike zone and pitch deep into this game, finishing with around six strikeouts and hitting the over.
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