Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today 6/29/21. All odds for June 29 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM.
After last night, I can assure you that I will never take the Arizona Diamondbacks again, no matter how well they profile against the opposition. Last night was a serious tank job from the Diamondbacks after electing to hit the relief pitcher in a tied game with two outs in the 6th inning. This team had an expected batting average of just under .300 and scored one run last night. They had four extra-base hits and scored one run.
Anyway, thanks for letting me rant. Let’s get back on track tonight.
Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 6/29/21.
- Overall: 17-16 (-0.63 units)
- Team Totals: 7-6 (-0.12 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 6-5-3 (-0.71 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (+0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)
MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 6/28/21
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: KC: RHP Brad Keller | BOS: RHP Nick Pivetta
Over 5.5 runs in the first five innings (-130)
Wager: 1.30 units
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It’s nearly July and that means we’re going to start getting hot and humid weather in the MLB. I’m not sure the players enjoy the humid and hot weather, but over bettors certainly do.
In Boston, it’s going to be over 90 degrees at first pitch with wind blowing out to center at about 10 miles per hour. That’s some great hitting weather.
Brad Keller will take the mound for the Royals. Keller has had an awful June, allowing 23 runs, 37 hits and five home runs in 25.1 innings. He has also allowed 12 walks to just 21 strikeouts and 15 more fly balls than ground balls.
Keller’s last start came against the Yankees. The Yankees offense has been struggling all season long but against Keller, the Yankees produced nine hits in five innings and scored four runs with two long balls. They also walked four times compared to three strikeouts.
Before the Yankees, Keller faced the Red Sox and also allowed plenty of runs through five innings. The Red Sox scored five runs on five hits in five innings with three walks and just four strikeouts.
The Red Sox opened up the scoring early in that game and then used a four-run 5th inning to capitalize against Keller, which included a J.D. Martinez two-run blast.
On the other hand, Nick Pivetta will get the start for the Red Sox. He’s coming off a no-hitter through 6.2 innings in which he allowed just two walks to the Rays including eight strikeouts, and again, no hits.
But that’s a bit of an outlier. Pivetta has given up multiple runs in 12 of 14 starts this season. Yes, I said multiple runs, meaning in 12 of 15 starts, he’s allowed more than one run.
For whatever reason, Pivetta has the Rays’ number. He’s kept them scoreless twice through 11.2 innings. Other than that, he dominated a Mets offense that essentially had a Triple-A lineup, and the rest of his starts, he’s been average at best.
The Royals faced Pivetta a couple of weeks back and scored three runs off an Adalberto Mondesi three-run blast. Mondesi is back on the injured list, but there’s going to be plenty of power on this Royals team. Pivetta has been worse against righties when it comes to power, even as a right-handed pitcher.
Each time Pivetta has allowed no runs in a start, he’s given up at least three runs in his next start this season. Both offenses should be able to score three runs before the end of the 5th inning. Keller has 10 starts allowing three runs or more while Pivetta has six starts allowing three runs or more.
Let’s enjoy some early runs in today’s action.