After getting crushed in Week 9, I have four games that I like in Week 10. With November being the last month of regular season college football, we are running out of good betting opportunities as we get closer to bowl season.
With more data coming in on all 130 FBS programs, in my opinion the Week 10 card has been the hardest to handicap so far this season. Despite the increasing scarcity of good bets, there is still value to be found.
Below, I discuss four games that I am betting on.
All odds and lines are current as of Tuesday, November 2, at 11:00 a.m. ET.
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CFB Week 10 Predictions
Army (4-3) @ Air Force (6-2)
Nothing makes me happier as a college football fan than the triple-option. For those unaware, it’s a run-heavy offense that’s typically utilized by service academies that involves several running backs and quarterbacks.
On Saturday morning before every game, we have a great triple-option showdown between Army and Air Force.
Army is 4-3 with its only losses coming against Wisconsin, Ball State, and No. 10 Wake Forest. Air Force is 6-2 with its only losses coming against Boise State and San Diego State.
Other than Army’s loss to Ball State, all of the losses were respectable.
As a 14-point road underdog against a hardened Wisconsin team, Army came within a touchdown of winning. Against Wake Forest, Army managed to score 56 points.However, in the Wake Forest game, the Black Knights allowed 458 passing yards and five passing touchdowns.
Allowing passing yards won’t be a problem against the Falcons, as they run the ball on 87% of their plays — the second-highest mark in the FBS.
Air Force’s only win over a team with a winning record was against Florida Atlantic. Against Army, Air Force must beat a defense that practices against a triple-option offense every week.
Army vs Air Force Prediction: Army 24, Air Force 14
Best Bet: Army +3 (-110) at BetMGM (would bet up to -125)
Wager: 1 Unit
In my opinion, Saturday’s Army/Air Force game is a tossup where Army should be slightly favored. With the total appropriately set at only 37 points, every point scored is more valuable as there is a smaller distribution of potential scores.
Even though I usually like moneylines more than spreads for underdogs, for Saturday’s game, the spread at +3 is a better bet. If Army loses, chances are it is a close game.
In my opinion, Army should win, but at (+125) the moneyline isn’t as good as getting a field goal’s worth of points on the spread.
Liberty (7-2) @ No. 15 Ole Miss (6-2)
Liberty is the classic big fish in a small pond. Over the last two years, the Flames have done well as a football independent, but they only play cupcakes. They may have a 7-2 record, but Liberty plays a schedule that ranks in the bottom third of 130 FBS teams.
Ole Miss, on the other hand, has a 6-2 record and has played the No. 5 hardest schedule this season. On Saturday, both teams meet in Mississippi, yet the Rebels are only 9.5-point favorites.
Ole Miss has a pretty boy head coach in Lane Kiffin, who, in my opinion, is one of the more overrated college football head coaches. However, the Rebels have played well this season to Kiffin’s credit.
The main strength of the Rebels is in their offense led by quarterback Matt Corral. At , Corral currently has the fourth-shortest Heisman Trophy odds at only (+700). On the year, Corral has 2,202 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions.
Most impressively, Corral put up these numbers against some of the best teams in SEC, including Arkansas, Alabama, and Auburn. When looking through Liberty’s schedule, they have yet to face a quarterback of Corral’s caliber.
The question for Saturday’s non-conference game is if the Flames can hang with a nationally-ranked SEC school.
Liberty vs Ole Miss Prediction: Liberty 14, Ole Miss 41
Best Bet: Ole Miss -9.5 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to -14)
Wager: 1.5 Units
The SEC as a conference is overrated, homefield advantage is overrated, Lane Kiffin is overrated, but so is Liberty. The Flames have a great record, but their opponents are what can be referred to in Yiddish as dreck.
Corral and Ole Miss should win by at least two touchdowns. When WynnBET opened the Rebels at -13.5, I grabbed it right away (and sadly, based on the line movement, I was wrong).
However, I still believe Ole Miss should have no trouble covering at home, making this one of my favorite bets this week.
Matt Corral has put together a stellar season for the Ole Miss Rebels, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
No. 22 Penn State (5-3) vs Maryland (5-3)
Penn State is one of the best teams in the Big Ten, but you wouldn’t know it by taking their three-game losing streak at face value.
PSU lost last week against Ohio State in a game that was a nail-biter until the fourth quarter. They lost as 24.5-point favorites in nine overtimes against Illinois, and they lost 23-20 against Iowa. All three of those games were winnable.
As a result of their recent bad luck, the Nittany Lions opened as only 9-point favorites on the road against Maryland. However, Maryland (unlike Penn State) is not as good as their record suggests.
Maryland has yet to beat a Power Five team this season with a winning record. Last week, the Terps beat an Indiana team using their third string quarterback. However, they only won that game 38-35.
Compared to the Hoosiers’ depleted quarterback core, the Terrapins will have a tougher time against Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford. He’s played the best football of his career this season, posting a 65.2% completion rate, 2,008 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions.
Against a Maryland defense that is allowing 264.6 passing yards per game, it is going to be interesting to see if Clifford and PSU can play well enough to cover the spread.
Penn State vs Maryland Prediction: Penn State 37, Maryland 14
Best Bet: Penn State -10 (-110) at Caesars (would bet up to -14)
Wager: 1.5 Units
Usually, the AP Top 25 rankings are deceptive as they rank teams based on how well they have played rather than how well they should play. However, Penn State is even better than their ranking suggests.
Since joining the Big Ten, Maryland has yet to play well enough against elite programs like Penn State. While the Nittany Lions have played poorly in close games recently, they should have an easy win against MD on Saturday.
Clemson (5-3) @ Louisville (4-4)
I have been a glutton for punishment this season because I keep betting on Clemson. Generally, I like betting on the most talented teams rather than the luckiest teams, as talented teams tend to have the best track record.
Up until last week against Florida State, Clemson had failed all season to cover against FBS opponents despite having a winning record. However, the only reason why the Tigers covered last week is because of a game-ending fumble return.
If you are betting on the Tigers this season, it is based on their potential rather than their past results. Clemson is a perennial ACC and National Championship contender with some of the best recruits in the country. Most importantly, they still have head coach Dabo Swinney.
Louisville, while improved this season, is a work in progress. The Cardinals have yet to beat a team this season with a winning record.
The key to how well they do depends on how well dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham performs. As a runner, Cunningham has 556 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, and averages 5.1 yards per carry. However, Cunningham is a below average passer as he has a 60.5% completion percentage and barely any touchdowns.
Clemson’s weakness this season has been their offense, not their defense. Despite their struggles, the Tigers are allowing only 3.2 rushing yards per carry, which ranks No. 13 in the FBS. Additionally, they are allowing only 17 points per game which is the fifth-best mark in the country.
It should be a low-scoring game, but I have a hard time seeing how Clemson doesn’t win.
Clemson vs Louisville Prediction: Clemson 24, Louisville 17
Best Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-109) at BetRivers (would bet up to -4)
Wager: 1 Unit
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. Well call me insane, because I am betting on Clemson again.
Football is a sport with small sample sizes, and as a result, we overreact to games. Based on talent, Clemson is clearly the better team. Cunningham should have trouble against the Tigers defense, and as a result, I placed a wager on Clemson’s (-110) moneyline when they opened on Sunday.
While the number has since moved to -3.5, I would bet Clemson up to -4 as they should be able to take down Louisville.
