October is almost over, but we still have a lot of great college football games to be played in Week 8. After Alabama lost last week to Tennessee, the National Championship picture is wide open.
Even though college football games have been great to watch recently, it is becoming harder to find good betting opportunities as more data comes in.
Below, read up on my best college football bets.
All college football odds are current as of 12 p.m. ET on Oct. 17, 2022, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 48-57-3, -6.8% Return on Investment, +3.6% Closing Line Value
Virginia vs Georgia Tech Best Bet
Georgia Tech -3 (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Virginia might be for lovers, but it isn’t for football this year.
The Cavaliers have a 2-4 record and are 0-3 against ACC opponents, losing 34-17 to Louisville, 38-17 to Duke, and 22-20 to Syracuse. Their only wins are against an FCS school in Richmond, and a near-loss against Old Dominion.
Georgia Tech isn’t that great either, but they have a few things going for them. Not only is this game at home, but they benefit from having an extra week to rest.
In their previous two games, the Yellow Jackets beat tough Pitt and Duke teams. Notably, GT was a 23.5-point underdog against Pitt at home and won 26-21.
Stylistically, this is a good matchup for Georgia Tech. They have a strong run defense and Virginia has a mobile quarterback in Brennan Armstrong. I like GT here, particularly if the spread stays at -3, but I would take the Yellow Jackets up to -6.5.
UAB vs Western Kentucky Best Bet
UAB Moneyline (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Western Kentucky and UAB are two of the strongest Conference-USA teams. Both have 2-1 conference records and could make the conference championship game depending on how they do against North Texas and UTSA.
Even though both teams are comparable in talent, UAB should win based on Western Kentucky’s offensive tendencies. WKU loves to throw the football. The Hilltoppers pass on 61% of plays, which is the sixth-highest rate in the country.
The problem for Western Kentucky, is that UAB has an amazing pass defense.
The Blazers allow only 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which fifth best in the country. Only Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Georgia do better. I am not saying that UAB is better than any of those teams (except maybe Illinois), but that is a good group of teams to lead a statistical category with.
On the road as a slight underdog, UAB should win, and I would bet them up to -2.5 for Friday night’s game.
Iowa vs Ohio State Best Bet
Under 49.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
WAGER: 1 Unit
Iowa +29 (-107) at PointsBet
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Outside of football, both Ohio and Iowa have a lot in common. Both are four-letter state names that start and end with a vowel. Both states are swing states, and both states are in the Big Ten.
When it comes to football, however, Iowa and Ohio State are on different planets.
Iowa couldn’t score more than 28 points, even if they played Akron. The Hawkeyes average 16.2 points per game, the 11th-fewest in the FBS. Even Hawaii and UConn average more points per game than Iowa.
- Looking for more ways to bet College Football? Check out The Game Day’s CFB Props.
The one thing that the Hawkeyes have going for them is their stellar defense. Iowa allows only 11.2 points per game, which is third-best in the country.
Therefore, Iowa should cover a 29-point spread and Under 49.5 points should be scored. OSU should do well against Iowa, but I don’t think they can keep firing all game. I would bet Iowa up to +27.5 and the total up to 47.5 points.
Houston vs Navy Best Bet
Houston -3 (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Last week, I was all over Navy as a nearly two-touchdown underdog. This week, I am changing the direction of my sports betting battleship, and going against the Midshipmen.
The reason for my bet on Houston is simple, they can stop the run. Helping the Cougars is that just like Navy alum Jimmy Carter, who ran for multiple offices, Navy likes to run more than virtually any CFB team.
In fact, the Midshipmen run the ball on 79.5% of plays, which is the second-highest rate in the nation.
Houston’s defense has had issues this year, but that has mainly been against tough competition. Against teams tougher than Navy in recent games, Houston has been able to contain the run. At -3, I would bet on Houston now before the line moves.
Northern Illinois vs Ohio Best Bet
Over 65.5 Total Points (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
I don’t know who is going to win the game between Northern Illinois and Ohio. Both teams are about evenly matched, and Ohio has played with a renewed spark.
What I do know or at least feel confident about, is that we might see 80+ points in this game.
As loyal readers of The Game Day might know, I am a huge fan of the Canadian Football League (CFL). The best player in the league right now is BC Lions QB Nathan Rourke, who went to Ohio. And who is the starting quarterback for the Bobcats right now? Nathan’s younger brother Kurtis Rourke.
In their 55-34 win against Akron, Kurtis went 24-for-27 and had 427 passing yards. He should have 300-plus passing yards and a 70% competition rate against a suspect Northern Illinois defense.
NIU can also put points on the board in what should be an up-tempo game. I like the Over this weekend, and I would bet it up to 69.5 points.
How To Bet College Football Week 8
Mostly conference games
Now that September is over, most of the remaining regular season games are going to be conference matchups. This means that for those games, you must properly analyze what teams playing non-conference games will do against opponents close to their skill level.
The difference between bad and awful
The key to handicapping many games this weekend is figuring out the difference between bad and awful. Many weak teams are playing each other this weekend, and the trick to picking winners in those games is figuring out the degree to which certain teams are bad.
Some teams are bad, but decent against other poor-performing teams, and other teams just perform poorly against everyone.
Read more about how to bet on college football.
