After taking out Texas Tech in the Sweet 16, Duke will try to reach the Final Four one last time under head coach Mike Krzyzewski. But first, they’ll have to get through Arkansas in the West Regional Final at Chase Center in San Francisco on Saturday.
Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils outlasted the defensive-minded Red Raiders by scoring 49 second-half points in their 78-73 win on Thursday. The victory was Coach K’s record-breaking 100th victory in the NCAA Tournament, and another will send Duke to the Final Four for the 12th time in his tenure and 17th time overall, matching Kentucky for third-most appearances in NCAA history.
But getting past Arkansas will be no small task. The Razorbacks are back in the Elite 8 for the second straight year under former NBA player and coach Eric Musselman after shocking top-ranked Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 with a stunning 74-68 upset. If Arkansas wins, this will become their deepest tournament run since 1995.
Which team will punch their ticket to the Final Four on Saturday? Let’s dive in with our Duke vs Arkansas predictions and best bets for this Elite 8 showdown.
Duke vs Arkansas Odds
Duke vs Arkansas March Madness odds are current as of Friday, March 25, at 10 a.m. ET from Caesars Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Duke (-180) vs Arkansas (+155)
- ATS: Duke -4 (-110) vs Arkansas +4 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 147 (-110) / Under 147 (-110)
- Implied Score: Duke 75.5, Arkansas 71.5
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Duke vs Arkansas Prediction
The Razorbacks’ defense isn’t as tenacious as the Red Raiders’ D but should be playing with confidence after surrendering just 62.3 points per game in the NCAA tournament thus far, including only 68 to Gonzaga’s No. 1 offense in the Sweet 16.
Arkansas is the most prolific offensive team that Duke has played in this tournament as well. The Hogs averaged 76.1 points per game during the regular season and had four players average double-digit points, led by senior guard JD Notae and his 18.7 points per tournament game.
- Check out our Duke vs Arkansas parlay picks.
The Razorbacks are also certified giant-killers after knocking Gonzaga out of the tournament and topping Kentucky and Auburn during the regular season.
Still, Duke is Duke — a dominant offensive team that is well-coached and has one of the best freshmen in the country in Paolo Banchero, who is averaging 19.3 points per game in the tournament. The Blue Devils, who ranked eighth in the nation with 80.2 points per game during the regular season, have scored at least 78 points in all three tournament games.
With a talented starting five and a balanced offense, Duke is difficult to beat and appears to have a slight edge here.
Duke vs Arkansas Score Pick
Duke 80, Arkansas 70
This would have been a much tougher matchup for Duke if Gonzaga had advanced, but the Blue Devils seem to have the upper hand in this matchup. If its gritty win over Texas Tech is any indication, Duke will find a way to persevere against Arkansas’ stingy defense and pull away late.
Duke vs Arkansas Best Bets
Duke -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
This should be a close game, but the Blue Devils have won all three of their tournament games by at least five points. That gives us some confidence in picking Duke to win by multiple possessions and cover the spread for our CBB bet of the day.
Over 147 Total Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
As mentioned above, Duke’s offense is rolling. It’s averaging 80.3 points per game during the tournament and just scored the most points allowed by Texas Tech in a game that didn’t go to overtime this season. Plus, both sides seem to have settled into a groove on offense.
Given the high quality of both offenses, the total going over 147 points seems attainable here.