The WNBA Finals are finally here. The 1-seeded Las Vegas Aces are hosting the 3-seeded Connecticut Sun.
Las Vegas served up an ace in the semifinals against the Seattle Storm, winning the series 3-1. The Sun burned through the Chicago Sky in a 3-2 squeaker. Now, both teams face each other on the grand stage, with the Aces as heavy favorites.
Las Vegas starts off Game 1 as a six-point favorite. Can Connecticut be competitive?
Read about my WNBA simulation and what bets it likes below.
All WNBA gameday odds and lines are current as of Friday, Sept. 9, at 3 p.m. ET
How The WNBA Playoffs Simulation Works
To figure out my WNBA Championship probabilities, I simulate the WNBA playoffs and remaining regular season games 25,000 times in Microsoft Excel.
How does this WNBA Playoff simulator work?
- Each WNBA team has a power rating. To calculate a team’s win probability, I take one team’s power rating and subtract the other team’s, which gives me a spread. In that spread, I also add in homecourt advantage. Once I have a spread, I convert it to a win probability.
- If a team has a 63% win probability, for example, Excel will give that team the win 63% of the time, and 37% of the time will give the other team the win.
- After each simulation of the WNBA Playoffs, I have a winner of the WNBA Finals. Once my program has simulated the playoffs 25,000 times, I count the number of times each team won and divide it by 25,000. That number is the win probability for that team winning the Finals.
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WNBA Finals 2023 Simulation
|Team||Finals Winner||Finals Winner Breakeven Odds|
The consensus price on Las Vegas winning the Championship is (-240), while the price on Connecticut is (+210). My model believes that Las Vegas should be a (-236) favorite, so there isn’t an edge on either side now.
Despite appropriately priced series odds, there are betting opportunities if you look more closely at the futures markets being offered.
Las Vegas has been the best team in the WNBA this season. They had the best record during the regular season, while Connecticut had the third-best.
The difference is that Connecticut had the highest scoring differential in the league, while Las Vegas had the second-highest.
Despite comparable records and statistics, Las Vegas has the better talent. Not only do the Aces have Becky Hammon as head coach (a job she deserves in the NBA), but they have the 2022 WNBA MVP in A’ja Wilson, plus All-Stars in Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, and Dearica Hamby.
With the first two games and a potential Game 5 in Vegas, this is the Aces’ championship to lose.
Best WNBA Finals Bets
Las Vegas Aces Series Spread -1.5 (+107) at BetRivers Sportsbook
To my surprise, even though the Aces are not a good bet to win the Series, they are a great bet to cover a -1.5 series spread.
The first two games of the series are being played in Las Vegas, where the Aces will be favored by six points. For Games 3 and 4, the Aces are likely to be favored by only two points.
It is plausible that Vegas either sweeps Connecticut, or they win both of the first home games and split both away games to win the series 3-1.
In 53% of my simulations, the Aces win the WNBA Finals by at least two games. At (+107), this is a good bet to make, and I would bet it up to (-105).