NBA Playoffs Simulation 2022 | Simulating the NBA Playoffs
@BoogieDownPicksWith the second round of the NBA Playoffs finished, we have two exciting Conference Finals matchups where any team could win.
In the Western Conference, the fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks face the third-seeded Golden State Warriors. The Mavericks took down the top-seeded Phoenix Suns, while Golden State defeated the Memphis Grizzlies.
In the Eastern Conference, the top-seeded Miami Heat face the second-seeded Boston Celtics. Miami beat the Philadelphia 76ers in six games, and Boston topped the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in seven.
Below, I explain how I simulated the remainder of the NBA playoffs and the result of my simulations.
All NBA gameday odds and lines come from Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Monday, May 16, at 2:30 p.m. ET.
How The NBA Playoffs Simulation Works
Each team in the NBA Playoffs is assigned a power rating. I can then simulate a team’s chances of winning based on the ratings between the two teams in a given matchup.
How does this NBA Playoff simulator work?
- By finding the difference between the two teams, you’ll get the number of points that one team should be favored by.
- To account for home-court advantage, I add four points to the home team. This is worth significantly more than it is during the regular season, where homecourt advantage is worth only 2.5 points. I base this off the 2016-19 seasons where home-court advantage in the playoffs was worth 4.11 points according to Dr. Ed Feng from The Power Rank.
- For example, if one team has a power rating of 22 and their opponent sits at 25, they should be a three-point underdog in a neutral matchup. At home, that team will be favored by one-point, but on the road, they will be seven-point underdogs.
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How do I make these NBA playoffs power ratings?
Just like my NCAA projections, I chose not to reinvent the wheel. The dirty secret in sports betting is that most sports bettors copy the work of other sports bettors or non-betting analysts.
For my NBA Playoffs model, I looked on predictiontracker.com to see which public handicappers have had the best track record this season against the spread and have given their power ratings more weight in my model.
Most importantly, I have given the betting markets the most weight in my power ratings, as they have been more accurate than any of the public handicappers this season.
Once I compiled my power ratings, I then have my own power ratings that I can use to simulate the Playoffs.
After simulating the NBA Playoffs 25,000 times in Microsoft Excel, I tabulate how often each team won the NBA Finals, in addition to the number of simulations where each team won the Eastern and Western Conference championships.
I bet on a team to win the NBA Finals if their odds are greater than my breakeven odds.
- Breakeven odds are how often a bet needs to hit for you to break even. To be a profitable long-term bettor, you should be making bets where the payoff is better than the breakeven odds.
- For example, let’s say my model gives a team a 12.5% chance of winning the NBA Finals for a breakeven price of (+700). If a sportsbook offers (+800) on that bet, I take it. Otherwise, it’s not a good bet to take.
Essentially, this is all to help bettors figure out when to make a bet.
NBA Playoffs 2022 Simulation
Eastern Conference
In the Eastern Conference, the best two playoff teams remain. The Miami Heat comfortably beat the 76ers in the second-round despite the 76ers having Joel Embiid in the lineup for the end of the series.
| Team | Conference Winner | Conference Winner Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BOS | 64% | -178 |
| MIA | 36% | +178 |
The Boston Celtics may have won their second-round series 4-3 against the Bucks, but they should have won the series 4-2 after they blew a large lead in Game 6. Despite being the second-seeded team in the East, the betting markets view Boston as a heavy favorite against Miami.
Unfortunately, I agree with the oddsmakers, and I do not see a value on either Eastern Conference team currently.
Western Conference
In the West, the Golden State Warriors are an even bigger favorite than the Celtics. They easily beat the Denver Nuggets and 2021-22 MVP Nikola Jokic in the first round and beat a third-seeded Grizzlies team 4-2 in the second round.
| Team | Conference Winner | Conference Winner Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| GS | 64.8% | -184 |
| DAL | 35.2% | +184 |
The Warriors are certainly a strong team, but the Dallas Mavericks deserve more respect from the betting markets.
My model gives a narrow edge to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals, and they could be dangerous if Luka Doncic gets hot. If Doncic has a few good games like he did against the Suns, then Dallas could pull off the upset against Golden State in the Western Conference Finals.
NBA Finals
For the NBA Finals, Golden State easily has the best chance of winning of the remaining teams as they win the Finals in 41.3% of my simulations. My model gives a narrow edge the Warriors, but an even bigger edge to the Mavericks.
| Team | Championship Winner | Championship Winner Breakeven Odds |
|---|---|---|
| GS | 41.3% | 142 |
| BOS | 24.1% | 315 |
| DAL | 18.8% | 433 |
| MIA | 15.9% | 530 |
The Mavs won the title in 18.8% of my simulations, making them a bet worth making at (+650) odds. Dallas should be priced closer to (+450), which makes them a good pick. In an NBA Finals against Boston, Dallas would be a bigger underdog than they are against Golden State, but that doesn’t scare me away from the Mavericks.
Notably, if Dallas faces Miami, I would put the Heat as only a narrow favorite against the Mavericks.
Best NBA Playoffs Bets
Dallas Mavericks Win Western Conference (+200)
Dallas Mavericks Win NBA Finals (+650)
There are four teams left in the NBA Playoffs, but only one is worth betting on: the Dallas Mavericks.
To use an analogy, my sports modeling during playoffs is like trying to predict the weather. When you are trying to predict the future, it is easier to predict the next day than the next week. As a result, during the beginning of the playoffs, I am likely to have larger edges than closer to the end in predicting the NBA Finals.
Dallas could go on a run for their remaining two rounds against Golden State and the Eastern Conference winner because they have one of the most explosive players in the NBA in Luka Doncic.
Golden State is coming close to being a good futures bet, but the value isn’t there yet. Boston and Miami were good bets earlier in the playoffs, but the value isn’t there anymore.
If you are looking for value for the remainder of the NBA Playoffs, Dallas is your only option.
prop bet
+200
Dallas Mavericks: Win Western Conference
Bet $20, Payout $60
prop bet
+650
Dallas Mavericks: Win NBA Finals
Bet $20, Payout $150
