Mexico and Poland open up their World Cup in a pivotal match that could have significant repercussions on the result of Group C. Argentina are the heavy favorites in this group, so these two teams will likely be battling for the 2nd spot to advance to the knockout stages. Saudi Arabia is more of a long shot here.
That means that securing three points would go a long way in helping ensure qualification. Mexico tied with Canada atop the CONCACAF group, securing 28 of 42 points. Poland won six of 10 games to earn the 2nd spot, finished ahead of Albania and behind England.
Mexico recently lost 1-0 in a friendly to Paraguay, resulting in boos from national team supporters. They followed that up with two losses against Colombia and Sweden along with wins against Peru and Iraq.
Manager Gerardo Martino is under pressure to deliver a strong performance on the global stage after underwhelming results throughout his current tenure, which began in 2019.
Poland played four friendlies in June, losing to Belgium twice, drawing with the Netherlands, and knocking off Wales. Their last two matches resulted in a pair of 1-0 victories over Chile and Wales. They’ll look to superstar striker Robert Lewandowski to help guide them through the group stage.
Mexico vs Poland Odds
- 3-Way Handicap: Mexico (+165) | Draw (+190) | Poland (+170)
- Draw No Bet: Mexico (-118) | Poland (-118)
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (+142) | Under 2.5 (-178)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-102) | No (-126)
Mexico vs Poland odds are current as of 12 pm EST on Nov. 18.
It doesn’t get much closer than this, with both sides separated by only five cents on the moneyline. There’s value on the draw at +190 odds because of how evenly matched these two squads are. It’s also better to go with Poland on “Draw No Bet," to protect yourself against a draw.
The Under is heavily juiced at -178, but it’s hard to see more than two goals in this one. If you’re looking at the Under but want to save money, the Both Teams Not to Score prop looks good, as you’ll only have to pay a -126 price.
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Mexico vs Poland Prediction
Poland 1:0 Mexico
We can look to Mexico’s 0-0 draw against the United States in March 2022 to get a good sense of how they’ll line up in the World Cup. They lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, led by winger Hirving Lozano, who plays for Napoli in Serie A.
Unfortunately, the team will have to play without Jesús Corona, who fractured his fibula and injured ankle ligaments during training back in August. It’s hard to see Mexico overcoming the loss of Corona up front.
They haven’t been as good in recent years, especially in qualification, failing to win a group by tying with Canada. This squad is under a lot of pressure from Mexican national media, and Martino has already announced that he’ll be stepping down following this tournament.
Poland went with a 5-3-2 in their most recent friendly, a 1-0 loss against Belgium. They will continue to rely on Lewandowski to carry them throughout the tournament. An important note: the team decided to omit veteran defender Maciej Rybus after he joined Spartak Moscow in Russia. This was because Poland had sought to cut ties with Russia following their invasion of Ukraine.
Rybus was among the most experienced defenders on the national team, earning 66 appearances throughout his career. The decision to remove Rybus from the roster could impact the defense.
Mexico vs Poland Betting Tips
- Mexico averaged 1.21 goals per game while allowing eight in 14 games during CONCACAF qualification.
- They had a +9 goal differential throughout qualifying.
- Poland had a +19 goal differential during UEFA qualifying.
- They scored three goals per game and allowed 1.1 per game.
Mexico vs Poland Best Bets
Draw No Bet: Poland (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Poland has more star power with Lewandowski up front, so we’re rolling with that angle in this wager. Mexico have not been at their best throughout qualifying as well as recent matches. Lewandowski should make the difference here.
The teams are so evenly matched that it feels right to target this market rather than Poland at +170 to win outright. It’s just the safer play here.
Both Teams to Score: No (-126) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Mexico had a tough time scoring goals in qualifying against teams like the United States and Canada. Unfortunately, we’re likely to see more of the same here, particularly when facing teams like Poland, who have faced tougher competition in Europe, like England.
The Under 2.5 goals is too pricey for my liking, so I’ll save about 40 cents by taking Both Teams Not to Score here. This game looks like 1-0 or 0-0 in a tightly contested affair.