Week 7 is bye week hell. On top of that, the matchups are mediocre.
Hooray Week 7.
There are too many injuries to cover ahead of the Main Slate breakdown, but I want to mention that the quarterback position will either be ouchy or littered with backups starting.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to navigate each section of the weekly DFS article easily.
Thursday Night Football DFS: Jaguars @ Saints
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Thursday, Oct. 19, at 11 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Saints -2
- Total: 40 Points
Major injury ramifications for Thursday night, as Trevor Lawrence (knee sprain, $9,600 on DraftKings) is truly questionable. OL Brandon Scherff (ankle) is also questionable.
Zay Jones (knee) will miss his fourth game in five weeks.
The Saints are expected to get Jamaal Williams (hamstring, $4,200) back to pair with Alvin Kamara ($10,400). The bad news is they are without Juwan Johnson (calf) and three offensive linemen (two starters and their swing tackle), and could be without a starting linebacker and safety.
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Both offenses will be operating at less than 100%, especially with Lawrence potentially active with a knee sprain. What helps is that both offenses have some level of consistency, albeit not consistency with a high level of production.
Both teams have plus-point differentials, which adds to the consistency.
Jacksonville has found a way to be run-centric while also passing above expectation, ranking top five in both categories. That can be attributed to an excellent streak of games by Travis Etienne Jr. ($10,200) and spike weeks from Calvin Ridley Jr. ($8,400) and Christian Kirk ($8,000).
The connection between Derek Carr ($8,800) and Chris Olave ($9,000) is far from a finished product. It needs to take a step forward this week against the pass-funnel Jaguars defense ($3,800).
Only six teams allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wideouts than the Jags, according to 4for4.
Alvin Kamara ($10,400) has turned back the clock since returning from his suspension, logging 24, 25, and 26 total touches in his three games played. The potential return of Williams, paired with rookie Kendre Miller‘s ($1,800) cycling in will give Jacksonville a lot to look at, especially with Kamara’s catching prowess.
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Chris Olave with Derek Carr and Christian Kirk
I want volume with pricing and CPT rostership to be relatively flat. Olave and Kirk are first-read target players and lead their respective units in PPR points per snap.
Captain Calvin Ridley with Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed
Ridley’s aDOT is four yards more than Kirk and has been asked to win more downfield. Thomas and Shaheed are aDOT targets in the same vein as Ridley, with Shaheed blowing the top off opposing defenses.
He has a great matchup and a QB who wants to take chances.
Alvin Kamara with Saints DST and Christian Kirk
Volume for Kamara is unquestioned. The Saints defense could cause havoc with a limited Lawrence not being able to run as well on a bad knee.
Captain Travis Etienne Jr. with Evan Engram and Alvin Kamara
A strong rushing performance from Etienne, tied with short aDOTs for he and Engram, build an uncommon stack needed to alleviate pressure off Lawrence.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Jamal Agnew ($400)
Agnew ran the third-most WR routes with Zay Jones out Week 6. He also has zero targets over his past two games.
Agnew does return punts and kickoffs, which are boosts for him at near-minimum pricing.
TE Jimmy Graham ($600)
The longtime TE has two targets that have resulted in one TD. With Juwan Johnson out again, Graham could see red zone snaps.
TE Brenton Strange ($1,000)
The rookie played a season-high 53% of snaps Week 6 and could see a similar snap load with a hobbled Lawrence. Strange also turned in his best performance of his young career, logging 2/27/1 on three targets.
RB Kendre Miller ($1,800)
Expect a decreased role with Jamaal Williams expected to play. If Williams is ruled out, Miller would be a salary-saving pivot, especially as the only other Saints RB to get a touch Week 6.
* TNF Captain Picks
Alvin Kamara ($15,600)
The only thing that scares me with Kamara CPT is Jacksonville’s ability to stop the run. If Kamara’s touches get limited by an inefficient run game, flat pricing and rostership will take him out of the optimal CPT lineup quickly.
Travis Etienne Jr. ($15,300)
Etienne has better upside than Kamara due to the team’s relative health around Lawrence. He also has the unquestioned RB1 role, out-snapping Tank Bigsby at a 68% clip.
Rashid Shaheed ($7,500)
Shaheed has three games with at least 63 receiving yards, but also has a goose egg. The Saints deep threat has bookended his six games with TDs and opens roster construction.
If the Under 40 points hits but Shaheed has a long score, he will flip the slate.
Christian Kirk ($12,000)
Kirk has games with 3, 4, 6, 8, and 11 receptions, which means volume. In the PPR-driven DraftKings format, a 7/70/1 line puts the nicely priced wideout firmly in CPT territory.
DFS Sunday Main Slate Week 7
Week 7 is back to a 10-game main slate with six teams on bye. We also lose a couple of better plays due to island games involving Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Miami, and San Francisco. That means we gotta make chicken salad with chicken…you know.
The injuries that can/will impact the main slate are too long to list at this point. If Daniel Jones (neck) ends up playing, the Giants get a slight boost. New York is still down too many linemen to be seen as a team to add multiple players into your play pool.
Week 7 Quarterbacks to Target
Patrick Mahomes (vs LAC), Jordan Love (@ DEN), and Geno Smith (vs ARI)
This trio has one thing in common - they have the three best QB matchups according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed tool. I also like Love’s willingness to make multiple deep passes per game and trusting his target to make a play.
Week 7 Quarterbacks to Consider
Russell Wilson (vs GB), Sam Howell (@ NYG), and Aidan O’Connell (@ CHI)
O’Connell is not a stretch after being the nuts pay-down QB in his first career start. The Bears have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, and relying on Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs is not a bad situation. O’Connell is also from Maywood, IL, so there’s the homecoming narrative, too.
Week 7 Running Backs to Target
Josh Jacobs (@ CHI), Isiah Pacheco (vs LAC), and Kenneth Walker III (vs ARI)
Saving salary with (insert Rams RB here) may be a fool’s errand in Week 7. Paying up for the position makes more sense. Walker could be the lone wolf, with Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) unlikely to play.
Week 7 Running Backs to Consider
Jerome Ford (@ IND), Jahmyr Gibbs (@ BAL), and Rhamondre Stevenson (vs BUF)
The expected return of Deshaun Watson (shoulder) should lead to one game plan - quick passes and running the ball. Ford is the better back between him and Kareem Hunt and was the RB who helped seal their upset win against the 49ers in Week 6.
Week 7 Wide Receivers to Target
Marquise Brown (@ SEA), Cooper Kupp (vs PIT), and Wan’Dale Robinson (vs WAS)
Robinson is the de facto WR1 for the Giants and has been heavily targeted by Jones and Tyrod Taylor. He has also overtaken Parris Campbell for slot work and only trails Darren Waller for targets per game (6.3) since his season debut in Week 3.
Week 7 Wide Receivers to Consider
Davante Adams (@ CHI), Kendrick Bourne (vs BUF), and Puka Nacua (vs PIT)
The Steelers allow the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wideouts. A Stafford-Kupp-Nacua stack is very live in Week 7, especially with L.A. unsure how to divvy up work for their 27 RBs.
Week 7 Tight Ends to Target
Travis Kelce (vs LAC), Mark Andrews (vs DET), and Sam LaPorta (@ BAL)
Tight end is the position to not get cute at this week. It’s Team Play The Best Plays for this slate.
Week 7 Tight Ends to Consider
Darren Waller (vs WAS), Luke Musgrave (@ DEN), and Kyle Pitts (@ TB)
Back-to-back double-digit DraftKings point games are a great sign for Pitts’ involvement. Jonnu Smith is still getting nearly equal work, but Desmond Ridder is making it clear that Pitts is a player he has to feed the ball to.
Week 7 D/ST to Target
Raiders (@ CHI), Giants (vs WAS), and Chiefs (vs LAC)
The Bears could be without three starting offensive linemen and one of their backups. The Commanders line is healthy but bad, and give New York credit for stepping up defensively with so many injuries on both sides of the ball.
Week 7 D/ST to Consider
Bills (@ NE), Bears (vs LVR), and Ravens (vs DET)
The rash of injuries has not kept the Ravens from producing. The defense has at least three sacks in five of six games and has eight takeaways. They have also limited passing attacks (season-high 216 passing yards in Week 2) and get a more stationary QB in Jared Goff.
Favorite Week 7 Dart Throws
QB: Tyrod Taylor (vs WAS)
RB: Darrynton Evans (vs LVR)
WR: Jake Bobo (vs ARI)
TE: Connor Heyward (@ LAR)
D/ST: Patriots (vs BUF)
Week 7 Featured Main Slate DFS Showdown
No featured Showdown game this week. Bummer, yes, but it also gives these fingers a mini break as we’re nearing closer to multiple Showdown contests on top of Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night contests.
Week 7 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Dolphins @ Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -3
- Total: 51.5 Points
The most anticipated game of the week is in Philadelphia as the Dolphins head north to try and outscore the Eagles. Miami is passing the ball in 61% of neutral game scripts, which highlights just how good Tua Tagovailoa ($10,600 on DraftKings) and his teammates have been through the air.
Tyreek Hill ($12,000) is the most dynamic player in the NFL right now, and Jaylen Waddle ($8,600) is a WR1 on almost every team in the league. The beauty with this duo too is that the Dolphins passing game is one of the most concentrated in the league. That is not to say running backs do not get targets but in terms of pushing the ball down the field, we know who is getting targeted.
The Eagles have a chance to be the second team to beat Miami. Their 37 team points per game is 7 ahead of 2nd place, and 11.5 points more than Philly. This could be the second week where Jalen Hurts ($11,400) puts the offense on his back and flirts with the rare 300/100 double DK bonus.
A Hurts game is a boon for any of A.J. Brown ($10,000), DeVonta Smith ($7,400), and Dallas Goedert ($6,200). Brown and Goedert were the benefactors of the first Hurts game, with Smith still getting five targets in a dud performance. Two concentrated offenses, plus a gaping hole at WR3 for leverage on both teams, makes for a dynamic DFS contest.
Favorite Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Jaylen Waddle with Tua Tagovailoa and Dallas Goedert
Goedert’s groin injury may limit how much I use this trio, but it’s excellent leverage in a close game that is bound to have a lot of Tyreek Hill CPT.
Captain Jalen Hurts with DeVonta Smith and Tyreek Hill
Smith makes sense as a CPT leverage play, but in this instance he is a pivot of A.J. Brown. Both have difficult matchups despite Miami’s WR-friendly defense due to lopsided game scripts.
Captain D’Andre Swift with Eagles DST and Raheem Mostert
Swift’s role has been fun to see expand. He is in an odd price range with multiple WR pivots and an affordable Goedert, which means his CPT and Flex rostership could be suppressed.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. ($200)
Wilson’s rostership is going to skyrocket at this price. I am assuming he is the primary back up to Mostert, which is risky coming off I.R.
WR Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Fun fact: Wilson has run 1% more routes and averages 0.14 more fantasy points per snap than Braxton Berrios. Wilson is $2,200 cheaper than the player most presume is Miami’s WR3.
WR Olamide Zaccheaus ($1,400)
The former Falcon isn’t going to wow you, but he is the WR3 and likely to be the forgotten player on the field. Zaccheaus’s biggest drawback is that TE Jack Stoll is the only Eagle with a lower target rate.
Tyreek Hill ($18,000)
Wilson being $200 makes CPT Hill more attainable. Every time the ball is in his hands, he is capable of scoring.
Jalen Hurts ($17,100)
Hurts can beat you two ways, and sometimes in the same game at an elite rate. Concentrated targets also takes away some guessing with which WR/TE to stack with the QB.
Dallas Goedert ($9,300)
Goedert has been peppered with targets the last few weeks, and now gets the 6th-worst team in schedule-adjusted points allowed to TEs, according to 4for4.
D’Andre Swift ($12,000)
Swift is the unquestioned RB1 in Philly. He also is counted on more than we thought in the passing game. His WR teammates do not have ideal matchups, and if they are troubled like in Week 6, Swift is going to looked at for chunk yards often.
Week 7 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: 49ers @ Vikings
- Spread: 49ers -6.5
- Total: 43 Points
Roster construction will hinge on how Christian McCaffrey (oblique, $12,000 on DraftKings) is utilized with a questionable tag. CMC is expected to play in part to the extra day of rest. As touchdown favorites with a healthy running back corps, a run-first, pass-later game script makes sense for San Francisco traveling halfway across the country.
The loss of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) hurts a wide receiver room without a lot of top-end talent, but the concentrated targets in the 49er offense means a lot of work for Brandon Aiyuk ($10,800). Excluding Samuel, only three 9ers see at least four targets per game, with one being McCaffrey at RB.
Minnesota is the opposite offense as their opponent. No team passes more in neutral game scripts, and the Vikings defense is void of top-end talent, let alone depth. No Justin Jefferson (I.R.) has put a lot of pressure on relative unknowns and younger players to elevate their play.
It would be easy to target T.J. Hockenson ($8,800), but the 49ers defense ($5,000) is top 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing tight ends, according to 4for4; San Fran may have the best linebacker and safety groups in the NFL and can remove Hockenson from the game plan if they choose to.
That means Jordan Addison ($7,600), K.J. Osborn ($6,400), and Brandon Powell ($2,800) will once again be asked to play above expectation for another week, only this time against a much better defense than Chicago from Week 6. Any two of them succeeding more than likely keeps Minnesota in the game. The 49ers are the most susceptible to opposing WRs, allowing the 10th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position.
Favorite Monday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Christian McCaffrey with 49ers DST and Jordan Addison
There’s a natural correlation between CMC and his defense, while Addison is the most likely WR to succeed against the 49ers based on talent.
Brandon Aiyuk with Kirk Cousins and Alexander Mattison
I believe Aiyuk can be the optimal CPT without Brock Purdy in a stack because of the game script. Cousins-to-Mattison is very much in play as an unconventional passing stack with a poor offensive line against an elite defensive front four.
Captain George Kittle with Brock Purdy and T.J. Hockenson
Kittle has an all-or-nothing feel to his fantasy production, and it makes sense that the all has happened numerous times in island games. Hockenson’s difficult matchup also has an all-or-nothing feel this week, giving this stack a high upside if it hits.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE Josh Oliver ($200)
Despite having the lowest target rate in the one-plus games without Jefferson, the clear TE2 has two red zone targets on the season, with one turning into a touchdown. That’ll play at the minimum price.
FB Kyle Juszczyk ($600)
The do-it-all H-Back has six catches over his past three games (zero receptions prior to Week 4) and one TD. Juszczyk could be in more naturally for a run-first attack and goal-to-go situations. A blowout win would also mean a few token carries/touches.
RB Cam Akers ($1,800)
Akers had two total touches in Week 6, a bad omen for his future workload. That said, Alexander Mattison has been far from efficient, and another poor start could mean an Akers boost at a favorable price. Akers is a play if you believe Minnesota keeps the lead or a deficit under six points.
WR Ray-Ray McCloud ($2,200)
McCloud stepped into two-wide sets once Samuel left Week 6’s loss, finishing with an 81% snap rate. That only led to two targets, which is where it is important to remember how concentrated San Francisco’s passing game usually is.
Christian McCaffrey ($18,000)
A muted workload is an expensive way to utilize CMC, but if he is a full go, he is the unquestioned top player in this game. Pairing McCaffrey with Elijah Mitchell makes a lot of sense if the former puts up points quickly and then rests with the oblique issue.
Brandon Aiyuk ($16,200)
Aiyuk is my preferred 49er CPT because I can build without Brock Purdy and still roster McCaffrey. He has also been the best wideout on the team, even with Samuel healthy.
George Kittle ($10,800)
Kittle has the most variance of any 49er, which makes him a CPT play compared to a core Flex option.
Jordan Addison ($11,400)
The rookie has two games where he flirted with 10 targets, including Week 6. He has seen nearly 25% of the team’s air yards and has the biggest aDOT on the Vikings. Even if his downfield work is kept in check, Addison is a threat for 10 targets with 5-7 catches. Counting stats in DK’s PPR format makes for optimal CPTs.