Week 4 does not have the volume of must-watch games that Week 3 did unless you enjoy two matchups featuring winless teams.
What we do get is two divisional matchups in Showdown, with one being during Sunday’s early action. We also get our first game overseas, which means fewer player options for this week’s main slate. It will give us our first taste of lineup building before bye weeks beginning Week 5.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
Thursday Night Football DFS: Lions @ Packers
The NFL lines I used for TNF are current as of Sept. 28, 2023, at 10 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Lions -2
- Total: 45.5 Points
Injuries on a short week will be a topic for Thursday’s lid lifter. The Lions will be without G Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee) and T Matt Nelson (ankle) on offense, while CB Emmanuel Moseley (hamstring/knee) will miss Week 4 for a struggling secondary.
Green Bay is also feeling the effects of the injury bug. T David Bakhtiari (knee), G Elgton Jenkins (knee), and OLB De’Vondre Campbell (ankle) are out. The Lions and Packers have numerous players questionable.
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The battle up front will play an even larger role with so many players out and questionable.
A return from Christian Watson ($8,200 on DraftKings) from a hamstring injury gives Green Bay their unquestioned WR1. It is being reported that Watson and Aaron Jones (hamstring, $10,800) will play, with Watson expected to be on a snap count. Regardless, any quality play from Watson is needed to help exploit an injured and underperforming Lions secondary.
Detroit is expected to get David Montgomery (thigh, $6,800) back after a one-week absence that saw teammate Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,600) remain in a similar workload. Montgomery’s return gives Detroit a bigger body between the tackles and frees Gibbs to utilize his natural ability in space.
In neutral situations, the Lions run the ball at nearly a 49% clip. That should be expected in Week 4 with the loss of Campbell and to keep DT Kenny Clark at bay against the immobile Jared Goff ($10,400).
If Jaire Alexander (back) plays, look for him to follow Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,600). ARSB looked good coming off a toe injury, finishing Week 3 with a 9/102/0 line on 11 targets, and added four yards rushing on one attempt. The good thing for Green Bay is that Rasul Douglas has been an excellent CB2 if he has to line up against the third-year receiver.
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Jordan Love with two Packers WR/TE
There was good Jordan and bad Jordan against the Saints. Even if Love is somewhere in the middle talent-wise, the return of Watson, tied with enough rushing upside, gives the first-year starter upside that Goff does not have. Given the uncertainty of target distribution, finding the right combo to pair with Love will make or break this build.
Captain Jahmyr Gibbs with Jared Goff and Jayden Reed
The Reed bring back makes sense because of his red zone usage (seven targets in three games). The biggest concern is that Watson was the WR target in the same area of the field last season. If it plays out similarly in his return, Reed would be a player I’d avoid in terms of aiming for touchdown upside.
Captain Aaron Jones with David Montgomery and Anders Carlson
This game could be exciting, but in case it is not, I want the workhorse RBs and Jones at CPT since he is involved a lot as a receiver. Jones’s rostership could be down coming off an injury, but I don’t believe he’d be back if he were not going to be utilized as usual.
Carlson is rostering the home kicker in what is expected to be a tight game.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE Josiah Deguara ($200)
Deguara’s role has less to do with route running and more to do with blocking. He has played at least 21% of snaps in each game this season and collected two receptions for five yards in Week 2.
WR Samori Toure ($600)
It is tough to roster the depth wideout, but he has the highest aDOT (20.63) among Packers WRs, which means one long connection and potential score makes him viable.
WR Marvin Jones Jr. ($2,000)
The former and now current Lion has been a zero since his Week 1 fumble and poor performance. He is still managing almost a 40% snap share, which is about the only positive for the veteran.
* TNF Captain Picks
Jordan Love ($14,700)
The offensive line issues boost Love’s running upside, and the return of Watson, paired with strong connections to Romeo Doubs and Jaylen Reed, make the signal caller a top option at CPT.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($17,400)
The only drawback to ARSB CPT is roster construction since he is the top-priced player on the slate. Detroit’s WR1 should have more time to get open with the return of LT Taylor Decker (ankle) to help slow Green Bay’s pass rush.
Aaron Jones ($16,200)
The Packers had no incentive to rush their lead back for this game, so it makes sense he missed Week 3 for the extra days of rest and controlled work. Jones is Green Bay’s best offensive weapon and is no stranger to big workloads; he saw a 39% touch rate on 28 snaps in Week 1 before leaving with his hamstring injury.
The UTEP alum touched the ball on 43% of snaps played in 2022, and that was before A.J. Dillon decided to fall off the production cliff this season.
DFS Sunday Main Slate Week 4
Like Week 3, Week 4 has a few notable games that are necessary targets for main slate builds. Finding the right combination between the chalk games and the sprinkled in diamonds in the rough will put DFS players, especially GPP contestants, in a good position to win a lot of money.
Week 4 Quarterbacks to Target
Anthony Richardson (vs LAR), Jimmy Garoppolo (@ LAC), and Russell Wilson (@ CHI)
The rookie QB put up 17 DraftKings points before leaving Week 2 with a concussion. The Colts found success at each level against a beat-up Ravens defense last week, and the Rams have little in terms of talent to account for in a second straight road matchup on a short week.
Jimmy G needs to clear concussion protocol to be viable. His early-season turnovers are a concern, no matter what defense he is facing.
Week 4 Quarterbacks to Consider
Justin Herbert (vs LV), Kenny Pickett (@ HOU), and Bryce Young (vs MIN)
Pickett and Young face defenses that have allowed at least a 73% completion rate through three games, as well as only three interceptions combined. Pickett is $5,100 on DraftKings, while Young is $5,200.
Week 4 Running Backs to Target
Miles Sanders (vs MIN), Javonte Williams (@ CHI), and Christian McCaffrey (vs ARI)
CMC is a near-lock when paying down at QB, as the Cardinals have allowed three receiving touchdowns to the position in as many games.
Williams could get cut loose for the first time in Week 4. The Bears are allowing 2.33 total TDs to opposing backs per game and have zero run-stoppers on their front four.
Week 4 Running Backs to Consider
Kyren Williams (@ IND), Alexander Mattison (@ CAR), and Rhamondre Stevenson (@ DAL)
Williams chalk will keep my exposure to him lower, while Mattison could lose carries, but is the clear catching back between him and Cam Akers ($900 less than Mattison).
The Cowboys are allowing 5.3 yards per carry, and the best way to keep Micah Parsons off Mac Jones is to run the ball.
Week 4 Wide Receivers to Target
Keenan Allen (vs LV), Jakobi Meyers (@ LAC), and Chris Olave (vs TB)
The Raiders just allowed two WRs to top 72 yards and allowed Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis to collect 13 catches in Week 2.
Meyers is the preferred bring back in Raiders-Chargers game stacks if choosing a WR.
Week 4 Wide Receivers to Consider
Puka Nacua (@ IND), Davante Adams (@ LAC), and Tyreek Hill (@ BUF)
Each will come with enough rostership to want to have less than consensus. Hill is my favorite and is priced as the WR2 in part because the Bills pass defense has been good, albeit against bad pass offenses.
Week 4 Tight Ends to Target
George Kittle (vs ARI), Dawson Knox (vs MIA), and Tyler Higbee (@ IND)
All three get middle-of-the-road defenses in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to TEs, according to 4for4. Knox has four red zone targets, with two inside the 10-yard line (1 TD).
Week 4 Tight Ends to Consider
Gerald Everett (vs LV), Chig Okonkwo (vs CIN), and Jake Ferguson (vs NE)
Everett (illness) could be slowed some if still under the weather but has the best matchup using aFPA.
Ferguson leads the NFL in red zone targets with nine. He’s only converted one into a score, which is why I have him to consider.
Week 4 D/ST to Target
Browns (vs BAL), Broncos (@ CHI), and Colts (vs LAR)
At $2,900, the Browns D/ST is an affront to DK pricing. The Ravens are expected to be without T Ronnie Stanley (knee), Odell Beckham, Jr. (ankle), and Rashod Bateman (hamstring).
Indy is tied for second with 12.0 sacks and is first in the NFL in forced fumbles (7) and fumble recoveries (4). Matt Stafford is a statue in the pocket.
Week 4 D/ST to Consider
Steelers (@ HOU), Panthers (vs MIN), and Eagles (vs WSH)
All three have sack-based floors. Philly is the best D/ST value, according to Establish The Run.
Favorite Week 4 Dart Throws
QB: Brian Hoyer (if Garoppolo is out, @ LAC)
RB: Antonio Gibson (@ PHI)
WR: Calvin Austin III (@ HOU)
TE: Donald Parham, Jr. (vs LV)
D/ST: Dolphins (@ BUF)
Week 4 Main Slate DFS Showdown: Dolphins @ Bills
The highlight of Sunday’s games is not in London or Dallas but in northern New York. Lines and points total are current as of Sept. 29, 2023, at 4 p.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Bills -2.5
- Total: 53.5 Points
The only injury of note belongs to Salvon Ahmed (groin, $2,000 on DraftKings). He is questionable, but Miami does not need to rush him back after the show that Raheem Mostert ($8,800) and De’Von Achane ($6,200) put on Week 3.
The least surprising note on Miami is that the offense has the highest explosive-play rate in the NFL. Surprisingly, it will face the defense, allowing the third-highest explosive play rate through three weeks. The Bills defense ($3,400) could be in for a shock with the return of Jaylen Waddle ($9,800) to a receiver group that scored 55.1 DraftKings points against Denver.
If there was ever a week for James Cook ($7,800) to, well, cook, it’s this week. Miami’s run defense can be had; they’ve allowed three double-digit fantasy point games to RBs, including two to the Chargers. That also means some mix of Latavius Murray ($4,000) and Damien Harris ($1,400) have a chance to be fantasy-worth in Showdown.
The Dolphins are also allowing 34.27 DK points per game to opposing WR groups, which means a larger player pool that includes salary-saving options for Buffalo pass catchers.
Favorite Featured DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain James Cook with Latavius Murray and Raheem Mostert
This RB trio covers yards and receptions for both teams while betting on Murray’s red zone role continuing over Damien Harris.
Captain Gabe Davis with Josh Allen and Jaylen Waddle
Waddle is $2,600 less than Tyreek Hill and has a history of roasting the Bills secondary (7/216/1 in two games last season). Davis is a CPT pivot off Stefon Diggs ($10,600).
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RB Damien Harris ($1,400)
Harris is running as the RB3 for Buffalo, which has not benefited him because it has meant no goal-to-go touches. Still, a TD at his salary changes the slate.
WR Trent Sherfield ($800)
The former Dolphin logged his highest snap share and production of the season in Week 3. In an expected shootout, one lineup (out of 20-plus) with Sherfield covers your bases.
WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. ($200)
Wilson rotated with River Cracraft (out Week 4) and Robbie Chosen ($2,400) on the outside with Waddle out Week 3. I expect Wilson and Chosen to get run if the Bills grab a significant lead.
WR Braxton Berrios ($2,800)
Berrios kept his slot role in three-wide sets even with Waddle out last week, which puts a cap on his snaps. The former Jet is also the team’s punt returner. The Bills gave up a game-winning return in Week 1 (Berrios would get those points).
Tyreek Hill ($17,100)
He will be popular, but his slate-changing speed could force a salary-saving bonanza for the top prize if he is the optimal captain.
James Cook ($11,700)
The better Cook RB has had at least 18 total touches each week this season, which means a confident workload no matter the game script. DFS players will be less likely to roster him at CPT because of his minimal goal-line work.
Josh Allen ($16,800)
Speaking of goal-line touch vulturing…
Allen has 300-yard upside as a passer and 100-yard rushing potential for the rare double-DK bonus. A small favorite with a high Over/Under gives Allen a strong floor and sky-high ceiling.
Week 4 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Chiefs @ Jets
This game’s spread and total are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of Sept. 30, 2023 at noon E.T.
- Spread: Chiefs -9
- Total: 41.5 Points
What could have been our first Mahomes-Rodgers battle is now Patrick Mahomes ($12,400 on DraftKings) against what is left of Zach Wilson ($9,000) after a horrid run post-Rodgers.
I’ll keep this simple - the Chiefs continue to run one of the most pass-happy offenses despite not having a WR1. Travis Kelce ($11,000) is the top target and gets a Jets defense ($3,600) that has allowed an average of 5.33/56.33/1 to the position to open the 2023 season.
The Jets will continue to rely on Breece Hall ($7,800) and hope Wilson can connect with the other Wilson, Garrett, to attempt to keep this game from being a laugher. Despite his QB misfortune, Garrett Wilson ($9,600) has a 30% target share.
Favorite SNF DraftKings Showdown Plays
Patrick Mahomes with 2-3 WR/TEs
A month into the season, we are still not sure who the top WR will be to complement Kelce. Mahomes CPT stacks will be popular, so identify a couple of wideouts that can skirt rostership if pairing with Kelce.
Captain Isiah Pacheco with Breece Hall and Patrick Mahomes
We could see heavy Pacheco usage if the Chiefs offense ends up toying with the Jets defense. The lack of a standout WR for K.C. also opens the challenge of moving the ball against a good Jets secondary, which means more action from the Chiefs RBs.
Captain Travis Kelce with Patrick Mahomes and Michael Carter
A negative game script for the Jets means more work for Carter. Kelce and Mahomes are expected to be some sort of CPT-Flex duo that many use, so adding Carter instead of a Jets WR is a way to be unique.
*Dart Throws/Cheap Options
TE Noah Gray ($600)
Gray has five targets since the return of Kelce, which matters in an offense lacking a top wideout to draw attention from the future Hall-of-Famer.
WR Randall Cobb ($1,000)
The long-time Packer is a WR1 for Team Wind Sprints. If Cobb somehow can get more than two targets as a home underdog, he can pay off paying down.
TE Tyler Conklin ($1,600)
DraftKings mispriced Conklin. He is averaging 3/26/0 on 4 targets per game.
Patrick Mahomes ($18,600)
Try to be as different as possible with Flex plays when using Mahomes at CPT.
Travis Kelce ($16,500)
Mahomes or Kelce will top CPT rostership for good reason.
Breece Hall ($11,700)
Unquestioned talent mixed with the ability to slip tackles could lead to a long touchdown to change the CPT landscape.
Rashee Rice ($7,200)
The rookie is my flag plant WR for the Chiefs. He is second in targets behind Kelce and is tied for third on the team with two red zone targets (one RZ TD). Aim for his TD equity while also rostering Mahomes and Kelce.
Week 4 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: Seahawks @ Giants
- Spread: Seahawks -2
- Total: 47.5 Points
The total for this game is up from 44, which tells you everything you need to know about injuries and expectations from this game. No Saquon Barkley (doubtful, ankle), no problem? If the Giants want to tackle Seattle’s weakness on defense, it is through the air.
The Seahawks defense ($4,400) is allowing 339 passing yards per game, and that includes facing Andy Dalton in a backup situation. That gives Daniel Jones ($9,600) a bit more juice in Showdown, especially since the Seahawks have allowed 17 passing plays of 20-plus yards. That was tied with the Chargers for most entering Week 3.
Seattle is getting back S Jamal Adams and CB Tariq Woolen, but five other defensive players (starters and rotational) were DNP’s Friday, with one officially doubtful and three others questionable. Even if the normal starters are back for Seattle’s secondary, the Giants passing attack is good enough to win in their quick passing attack.
Adams is playing his first game since October 2022, for what it’s worth.
A 3/34/0 line against the Panthers tight ends skews how poorly the Seahawks have been against the position; the Rams and Lions finished with at least four receptions and no fewer than 63 receiving yards.
A strong offensive showing would put Geno Smith ($10,000) and the Seahawks offense in a bind. The Giants defensive line against the Seahawks offensive line is one of the biggest mismatches, according to Establish The Run. T Abraham Lucas is on IR, and Charles Cross (toe) is doubtful for Seattle.
Smith could also be without one tight end, as Will Dissly (shoulder) is truly questionable. Seattle has run 103 passing and 28 rushing plays with a two-TE set, which is top 10 in the NFL. One TE being out limits the amount of pass-catching options to target for DFS players.
If Seattle gets away from two-TE sets tonight, that is good news for Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,000). JSN is the receiver getting bumped for the extra tight end.
Favorite MNF DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Darren Waller with Daniel Jones and Tyler Lockett
I am fairly bullish on Waller, especially with so many secondary pieces for Seattle coming back from injury. Lockett has a palatable 10.0 aDOT through three weeks and could see more targets than normal if Geno Smith is under duress.
Daniel Jones with two wide receivers
Waller could be the obvious stack with Jones in all Showdown sizes, so the best way to lean on the Giants pass game is to pair Jones with only wide receivers.
Kenneth Walker III with Daniel Jones and Parris Campbell
Walker isn’t going to get the shine that DK Metcalf and Lockett will in a positive matchup, but KWIII is fourth on Seattle in targets and should see a rostership dip with backfield mate Zach Charbonnet getting a 27% rush share in Week 3.
*Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WR Jake Bobo ($200)
When you get red zone looks and you’re the minimum on DK, you get a write-up. Bobo could see increased action if both injured Seahawks tight ends miss the game.
TE Colby Parkinson ($600)
Teammate Noah Fant (questionable, knee) is expected to play, and Will Dissly (shoulder) is questionable, so Parkinson’s rostership should remain low if even one of them is active. Parkinson has a respectable three targets per game and an 8% target share.
WR Jalin Hyatt ($2,000)
It’s been an adventure for the rookie, as he had a goose egg Week 1 on one target, 2/89/0 Week 2, and then crickets Week 3. Hyatt is the dude who should be asked to test the health of Seattle’s secondary early and maybe often.
Kenneth Walker III ($16,200)
His total touches have increased each week despite the additional inclusion of Charbonnet. The Giants have seen a lot of rushing attempts against them as they allow sizable leads early in games, but I think Walker’s work will not change because he’s game script-independent.
Daniel Jones ($14,400)
A QB with a known ability to throw and pass for big games should not be priced as low as Jones is. Jones is a candidate for more designed runs, with Seattle limiting running backs to 2.7 yards per rush. The Seahawks are susceptible to rushing TDs, so that means Jones could get his number called on the goal line.
Darren Waller ($10,500)
I want to be different with Waller, which means getting him in the CPT spot more than the field. If you do so in 20% of your lineups, then that should be more than the majority of DFS players.
DK Metcalf ($13,200)
Metcalf gets as many targets as Lockett but with a higher aDOT. His salary will keep his CPT rostership lower than his fellow wideout.