Week 11 brings powerhouse matchups ahead of the crazy Thanksgiving weekend. The Thursday and Monday Showdown slates bookend the 11-game main slate, and the games are arguably the best of the week.
Byes this week include the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints, aka teams it’s OK to sit out for a week.
Do not forget to check out all of The Game Day’s Week 11 fantasy football content. A lot of great content coming from the crew.
Reminder: Use the Table of Contents to the right to easily navigate each section of the weekly DFS article.
Week 11 Thursday Night Football DFS: Bengals @ Ravens
The NFL lines used for TNF are current as of Thursday, Nov. 16, at 11 a.m. ET., courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Spread: Ravens -3.5
- Total: 46 Points
Cincinnati will be without a trio of important players for TNF. Tee Higgins (hamstring), Andrei Iosivas (knee), and DE Sam Hubbard (knee) will miss this AFC North matchup. Rookie WR Charlie Jones (IR, thumb, $200 on DraftKings) is questionable.
Baltimore will be without LT Ronnie Stanley (knee), just as RT Morgan Moses returns. CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) is doubtful, and OG John Simpson (illness/shoulder), LB Kyle Van Noy (groin), S Daryl Worley (hamstring), and Devin Duvernay (hamstring, $200) are all questionable.
Duvernay went from a limited participant to DNP, which is an ominous sign for his availability.
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We have another matchup of two explosive offenses, but they get there in different ways. The Bengals pass first and ask questions later, running the ball a paltry 33.4% of all snaps. That is in part due to their early season struggles but also trust in Joe Burrow ($10,000).
Injuries continue to plague Burrow’s wideouts with Higgins and Iosivas out, but the consistent workloads for Ja’Marr Chase ($11,000), Tyler Boyd ($6,800), and Trenton Irwin ($4,400) have kept the passing game humming. Cincy is also installing multiple TE sets featuring Irv Smith Jr. ($3,000) and Tanner Hudson ($2,600).
This approach has affected Joe Mixon‘s ($9,600) touches, but part of that is on him. His utilization Thursday night could be the difference between DFS lineups sinking or swimming as the Bengals attempt to control the ball.
The Ravens have a 51% neutral pass rate so far, near the bottom of the league. It’s been a lot of hot-and-cold from Lamar Jackson ($10,800) and company as they flip back and forth in pass rate of expectation.
That could change Week 11 against a Bengals defense ($3,600) ranked 17th or worse in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to every offensive position except kicker.
That includes 7.9 explosive plays per game allowed, according to Pro Football Focus. No team allows more explosive runs per game (3.7), and only the Steelers allow more than Cincinnati’s 4.2 explosive plays through the air.
Favorite Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Zay Flowers with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Boyd
Flowers is the clear WR1 in Baltimore, commanding 24.5% of targets. He also has a respectable 8.53 aDOT and gets a beatable secondary. Boyd could see even more work than usual sans Higgins as the safety net for Burrow against a ferocious defense.
Captain Ja’Marr Chase with Joe Burrow and Odell Beckham Jr.
This stack has a higher bust potential if Humphrey somehow plays, but even if he does, CPT Chase is probably the only way I get him in my lineup. His workload is elite, especially without Higgins.
Captain Mark Andrews with Lamar Jackson and Trenton Irwin
The Bengals continue to be a sieve to opposing TEs, ranking 30th in aFPA to the position. He has the best matchup of any position player in this game and is priced as the fifth-most expensive player—plenty of upside.
Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, and Ravens DST
One way to keep Jackson upright is to #EstablishIt. Edwards and Mitchell provide a thunder-and-lightning approach with plenty of big-play upside. Burrow was picked off twice and fumbled once in Week 10.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
WRs Stanley Morgan and Charlie Jones ($200)
Both stand to play with multiple WR injuries. Jones and Morgan both have added value as returners.
TE Drew Sample ($400)
The third TE in terms of production, Sample has been on the field the most of the trio since their Week 7 bye. The cycle between the three will limit all of their production, but Sample’s salary makes him appealing.
WR Nelson Agholor ($800)
The veteran’s production has shrunk each week since Week 6, including two goose eggs. He still remains a valuable player on the field in real-life football, but playing him in Showdown means you’re hoping for a TD.
* TNF Captain Picks
Mark Andrews ($13,200)
His matchup is elite. His biggest question is CPT rostership. Andrews has two games with two scores, so we know his upside so far this season.
Joe Burrow ($15,000)
It could be a long night for Burrow, especially of Boyd and Irwin fail to keep the Ravens defense honest. What is undeniable is the offense’s focus on the pass game, which flows through him.
Lamar Jackson ($16,200)
Jackson is always in play for CPT because of his involvement in the offense. Outside of Justin Fields, Jackson is the most dangerous QB running the ball.
Gus Edwards ($10,500)
With so many big names in play, as well as the most recent flavor of the week (Keaton Mitchell), Edwards will be a forgotten man, especially at CPT. He continues to see the most running work and can get loose in the passing game.
Week 11 Main Slate Featured DFS Showdown
No featured game this week. Get ready for four (four!) Showdown slates Week 12 with Thanksgiving and Black Friday games.
Week 11 DFS Sunday Main Slate
A lot to like with the 11-game slate for Week 11. It appears the slate will avoid major injury news, with Noah Brown (knee), the biggest confirmed player out.
Any new news will be reflected here and in my picks, if necessary.
Week 11 Quarterbacks to Target
C.J. Stroud (vs ARI), Sam Howell (vs NYG), and Brock Purdy (vs TB)
Purdy may not seem like a top target, but the return of Deebo Samuel alleviated a lot of issues with the 49ers passing attack. Tampa Bay is one of the friendlier defenses to opposing quarterbacks. The Bucs will likely be without S Ryan Neal (thumb) and could be without star LB Devin White (foot).
Week 11 Quarterbacks to Consider
Tua Tagovailoa (vs LV), Kyler Murray (@ HOU), and Jared Goff (vs CHI)
I could flip Goff with Fields, but the Lions QB has a better matchup with an unfair offensive line matchup in his favor. Brandon Thorn of Establish The Run has Lions OL vs. Bears DL as the biggest mismatch in favor of an OL. The Bears could be starting LB Jack Sanborn once again, with Tremaine Edmunds (knee) unlikely to play.
That’s a massive drop-off in talent.
Week 11 Running Backs to Target
Devin Singletary (vs ARI), Breece Hall (@ BUF), and Christian McCaffrey (vs TB)
Hall is in a smash spot against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, let alone one with a pile of injuries. He gashed the Bills for 12.7 yards per carry in Week 1 when they were healthy. The release of Michael Carter also opens up a 29% RB target share in the Jets backfield.
Week 11 Running Backs to Consider
David Montgomery (vs CHI), Raheem Mostert (vs LV), and Josh Jacobs (@ MIA)
Monty faces his former team for the first time since joining the Lions and will be given every opportunity to score. Detroit is a one-score favorite at home, a great game script to target the Lions backfield that will have depressed rostership because they are both talented.
Week 11 Wide Receivers to Target
CeeDee Lamb (@ CAR), Nico Collins (vs ARI), and Marquise Brown (@ HOU)
As you can tell, I am all over Cardinals-Texans. Collins is returning from a calf injury, while Brown is the more expensive Cards WR coming off a down game compared to Michael Wilson. Rostership could change how I play the wideouts from both teams.
Week 11 Wide Receivers to Consider
D.J. Moore (@ DET), Tyreek Hill (vs LV), and Deebo Samuel (vs TB)
We have seen what Moore can do in space, and one thing the Lions secondary gives is space. The return of Fields is a boost to his WR1, even if it just means more reliable targets since Tyson Bagent could not throw the ball 20 yards downfield.
Week 11 Tight Ends to Target
Evan Engram (vs TEN), Sam LaPorta (vs CHI), and Trey McBride (@ HOU)
According to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric, McBride has the best matchup and will come with the most rostership. LaPorta could see rostership as low as 5%, which makes him the pivot off McBride and teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Week 11 Tight Ends to Consider
Cole Kmet (@ DET), David Njoku (vs PIT), and Luke Musgrave (vs LAC)
Njoku can be a dud in Week 11, but in the limited sample size playing with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, he led the Browns with seven targets for a 6/46/0 stat line in Week 4 against Baltimore.
Week 11 DST to Target
Browns (vs PIT), Steelers (@ CLE), and Packers (vs LAC)
As of Friday afternoon, an Over/Under of 33 tells a lot about the AFC North’s other battle in Week 11. Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been offensive, while DTR is just not an NFL-caliber QB right now, making him a target against a veteran-laden Steelers defense.
Week 11 DST to Consider
Cowboys (@ CAR), Commanders (vs NYG), and Jaguars (vs TEN)
The Titans offensive line is arguably the worst in the NFL. With Treylon Burks (concussion) likely out again, Will Levis will continue to lock on to DeAndre Hopkins and be susceptible to rookie mistakes under duress.
Favorite Week 11 Dart Throws
QB: Zach Wilson (@ BUF)
RB: Rico Dowdle (@ CAR)
WR: Kyle Phillips (@ JAX)
TE: Donald Parham Jr. (@ GB)
DST: Jets (@ BUF)
Week 11 Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown: Vikings @ Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -2
- Total: 42.5 Points
The big injuries to watch are Justin Jefferson (IR, hamstring, $12,200 on DraftKings) and Alexander Mattison ($7,400). Mattison is more likely to play than Jefferson, as he practiced in full Friday. We’ll know more Saturday afternoon.
The Vikings will be without QB Jaren Hall (concussion) and RB Akayleb Evans (calf). Nick Mullens (IR, back) and LB Brian Asamoah (ankle) are questionable.
Denver is relatively healthy with only CB P.J. Locke (ankle) out. Guard Ben Powers (foot) is questionable, and would be a big loss for an offensive line that can give up pressure.
It is safer to assume Jefferson is out, and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said it is unlikely he goes. He’d have no reason to cast doubt unless he wanted to get a call from league headquarters for not following injury protocol.
This game features two quarterbacks playing above expectations, but the focus could easily be on the running games. Javonte Williams ($8,800) is running as the clear lead back with an increased workload every game since Week 5, including 48 carries alone in his last two contests.
The Vikings defense ($4,600) has been good against run, but has three 100-yard rushing games on the road this season. That means Jaleel McLaughlin ($2,800) and Samaje Perine ($3,200) have higher ceilings than usual as small home favorites.
Minnesota needs Mattison active despite his mediocre play. If Ty Chandler ($7,000) and Kene Nwangwu ($1,200) were talented enough to usurp Mattison, they would have already. Chandler found the end zone Week 10, but only averaged three yards per carry despite being more “explosive" than Mattison.
If Mattison is out, Joshua Dobbs ($10,600) could be the best play in this game. As good as he has been navigating his third offense this season, his rushing has been what carries his elevated floor. Besides scrambling, it would not be surprising to see designed runs for the journeyman against a mediocre run defense.
Russell Wilson ($10,000) should be locked on to Courtland Sutton ($8,200) against a bottom-six pass defense according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric. Jerry Jeudy ($7,800) and Marvin Mims ($5,600) continue to be on Team Windsprints and have clearly fallen behind Sutton for targets.
Favorite Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Javonte Williams with Broncos DST and T.J. Hockenson
Williams’ work in the offense is unmatched in this game, and Hockenson is going to be a target monster once again.
Captain T.J. Hockenson with Joshua Dobbs and Samaje Perine
Hock has 27 targets with Dobbs under center. That’s enough for me. Perine continues to work in on long down-and-distance, as well as the two-minute drill.
Captain Courtland Sutton with Russell Wilson and K.J. Osborn
Osborn is a savings pivot off Hockenson and Jordan Addison. He is very much in play if Addison is shadowed by Patrick Surtain II on majority of snaps.
Captain Jordan Addison with Joshua Dobbs and Jerry Jeudy
Surtain has a shadow rate just below 45%, so sneaking Addison in the slot should be a priority in three-wide sets.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
RB Myles Gaskin ($200)
Gaskin is back with the Vikings, but will only have a small role if Mattison is inactive.
TE Johnny Mundt ($1,000)
Mundt has out-targeted Josh Oliver the past three weeks, which matters now that Dobbs is the QB. His price tag is outrageous considering his production.
RB Kene Nwangwu ($1,200)
Someone has to run the ball, right? His role as a returner boosts his fantasy floor a smidge.
WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($1,800)
The former Saint is the WR4 and saw 14 snaps (out of 75) Week 10. The cheaper options are a mess for this game.
T.J. Hockenson ($14,100)
Even if Jefferson were to be activated, Hockenson is a player I have locked in at CPT. Sometimes targeting your best pass catcher (sans Jefferson) on the field is a recipe for success.
Javonte Williams ($13,200)
Minnesota’s inability to slow RBs on the road is odd, but it puts Williams in an advantageous spot. Over his past four games he has 10, 18, 30, and 25 total touches.
Joshua Dobbs ($15,900)
The veteran has been one of the feel-good stories of the season, and his patience has paid off. I am okay being overweight on him at CPT, especially with 110 rushing yards with Minnesota in just under two games.
Courtland Sutton ($12,300)
The TD regression is coming (a score in four-straight), but as the WR1 for an improving offense, it is difficult to not slot him in at CPT, especially priced below Jordan Addison.
Week 11 Monday Night Football DFS Showdown: Eagles @ Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -3
- Total: 45.5 Points
Both teams enter Monday’s game relatively healthy. Richie James (IR, questionable, $200 on DraftKings) could return from a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 2. As the primary punt returner and seldom-used wideout, his return is more meddlesome than helpful.
The Eagles will be without Dallas Goedert (forearm) and S Justin Evans (knee). Evans was placed on I.R.
Week 11 ends with a banger of a game, and a potential Super Bowl preview. We get two teams playing as near complete units, with the Chiefs offense and Eagles pass defense the only question marks.
Patrick Mahomes ($11,200) is coming off one of his worst stretches of football in his career. In his two games before their Week 10 bye, the former MVP threw for 426 yards and a 2:2 TD/INT ratio. His Week 8 TD goose egg was only his third in his career.
Enter Philly’s pass “defense." Only the Commanders have a worse pass defense according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) metric, ranking 30th against QBs, 31st against WRs, and 26th against TEs. Considering both teams are coming off their bye, the Eagles do not gain an advantage in adjusting to the Chiefs passing game.
That means potential monster spots for Mahomes’ favorite targets midway through the season - Travis Kelce ($10,000) and Rashee Rice ($7,400). Kelce is the clear favorite (nine targets per game), but the rookie receiver has progressed to 4.6 targets per contest, with a floor of 2 Weeks 2 and 9 (Germany game).
Where the Eagles defense ($4,000) falters against the pass, it makes up for stopping the run. No team limits the run like Philadelphia, including under pressure; they’re first in run stuffs according to Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life.
It’s also interesting the the reigning NFC Champs are excellent on the ground when on offense. Jalen Hurts ($11,000), D’Andre Swift ($8,400), and a smattering of others have the running game averaging the eighth-most yards per game on the ground, as well as fifth in Rush EPA.
That is the likely way they’ll have to attack the Chiefs defense ($3,800), as well as keep the Chiefs offense on the sidelines. K.C. is top five in Yards Per Game, EPA Per Play, Pass Yards Per Game, Pass EPA Per Play, and Explosive Pass Percentage. That flips against the run, where the Chiefs are 17th in Rush YPG, 31st in Rush EPA, and 15th in Explosive Rush %.
A.J. Brown ($10,200) and DeVonta Smith ($9,000) have un uphill battle, even with Brown and Hurts connecting at an elite rate in 2023. Brown is top three in target share and yards per route run as fantasy football’s WR2.
Favorite Monday Night DraftKings Showdown Plays
Captain Patrick Mahomes with Two Chiefs Pass Catchers
The unknown roles of players beyond Kelce and Rice make building with CPT Mahomes unique enough, especially if you build with the correct dart throw pass catcher.
Captain A.J. Brown with Jalen Hurts and Mecole Hardman Jr.
Brown may have one of his more difficult matchups on the road in K.C., but his volume is too tantalizing to not roster atop your build(s). He has not dipped below 19 DraftKings points since Week 2.
Captain Travis Kelce with Patrick Mahomes and D’Andre Swift
This grouping can maximize exposure to offensive players in above-average-to-excellent matchups.
Harrison Butker with Jake Elliott
Kicker pricing is once again bloated as the two are in between Jerick McKinnon, Kenneth Gainwell, and Kadarius Toney. What those three lack the kickers make up for in opportunity in a game with a good Over/Under.
* Dart Throws/Cheap Options
Eagles Tight Ends
Grant Calcaterra, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Jack Stoll will all be vying for targets to replace Goedert. Calcaterra and Okwuegbunam are $600 combined and should be popular ways to save salary. Stoll has the most history in the Eagles offense.
WR Olamide Zaccheaus ($1,400)
The arrival of Julio Jones has not kept Zaccheaus from being the WR3. Zaccheaus has received more targets, snaps, and routes run than Jones.
TE Noah Gray ($1,800)
The answer to the pay-down pass catcher to pair with Mahomes may be his TE2. Gray is running a route on over 50% of his snaps played and has a rush attempt in the red zone.
WR Justin Watson ($2,400)
The other field-stretcher not named MVS averages a target on 10.4% of snaps played and is $600 cheaper than the Chiefs’ wind sprint champ.
Patrick Mahomes ($16,800)
Few can turn chicken … you know, into chicken salad like Mahomes. A home matchup against a pass funnel defense is a dream matchup coming out of a bye.
Jalen Hurts ($16,500)
His pass and rushing talents are among the best at the position, and his red zone work gives him an upside Mahomes usually does not have.
Rashee Rice ($11,100)
The rookie is a pivot off Travis Kelce, who also deserves to be in your CPT pool. The reason I list Rice is his increased role, especially coming off a bye, and the fact that he only has three fewer red zone targets than his teammate at a $3,900 discount.
D’Andre Swift ($12,600)
Swift may be more vital to Philadelphia’s chances of winning than A.J. Brown. The Eagles offensive line can command the line of scrimmage, especially on rushing downs. Swift has a stranglehold on the running work and enters Week 11 with the fourth-most targets on the Eagles.