April 1 MLB Bet Pick: Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

Here’s your April 1 MLB Bet Tip for 4/1/21 MLB Bets. All odds were obtained from bet365.

Opening Day is finally here, and it’s time to get the season off on the right track. Today there is one bet that really sticks out to me with the Texas Rangers visiting the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. This game projects as a low-scoring game but we’re getting the total at nine runs. Let’s take a look at why you should lock in the under on Opening Day.


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April 1 MLB Bet Tips

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals, 4:10 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Brad Keller (KC)

Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

Wager: 1.1 unit(s) (win would pay 1 unit)

over-under

-110

Rangers @ Royals: Under 8.5 Runs Scored Total

12/31, 7:00 PM

Bet365 logo

Bet $20, Payout $38

Here we have a pitching matchup of Gibson vs. d Keller in a pitcher’s park at Kauffman Stadium. Last season, the Rangers posted a 78 wRC+ (27th), .149 ISO (24th), and 25.3 K% (22nd) against righties.

While the Royals should have an improved lineup with potential bounce backs like Hunter Dozier and Jorge Soler, this is still a team that put up a 91 wRC+ (23rd), .156 ISO (21st), and 24.5 K% (20th) against righties.

Both Gibson (51.5 GB%) and Keller (52.8 GB%) are groundball pitchers who can exploit this matchup.  Keller does a great job of avoiding barrels (89th percentile). The Royals’ bullpen was strong in 2019, posting a 3.96 SIERA (9th) and 26.3 K% (6th). While they lost Trevor Rosenthal, they still have Greg HollandScott Barlow, and Josh Staumont. The Rangers have a weak bullpen, but nine runs are too many at Kauffman.

I like Keller’s chances of shutting down this weak Rangers lineup. Gibson should be able to turn in a quality start here, so even if the Rangers bullpen gives up a couple of runs, it won’t be enough to push this total over the number.


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