T.Y. Hilton Re-Signs With Colts: 2021 Betting & Fantasy Football Outlook

T.Y. Hilton re-signs with Colts: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting the Indianapolis Colts have re-signed WR T.Y. Hilton to a one-year contract worth $10 million. The deal includes $8 million in guaranteed money.



T.Y. Hilton Re-Signs with Colts

Although he was offered more money with the Ravens, T.Y. Hilton turned down Baltimore’s offer to ultimately stay home and re-sign with the Colts. Hilton, 31, has spent his entire nine-year career in Indianapolis and will be entering his year-10 with the club in 2021.

While Hilton is no longer the player he once was, he remains one of the better No. 1 wide receivers in the NFL. Hilton has posted two straight seasons with regressive statistics while dealing with lingering injuries. Despite playing in 15 games last season, Hilton only hauled in 56-of-93 targets for 762 yards and five touchdowns, only posting 13.6 yards per catch. Hilton’s 56/762/5 line were career-lows for the veteran wideout while playing in at least 15 games. Meanwhile, his 50.8 yards per game, 13.6 yards per catch, and one game with 100+ receiving yards were all the second-lowest totals in Hilton’s career.

It wasn’t too long ago in which Hilton posted a 76/1270/6 line on 120 targets in only 14 games back in 2018. What is the difference and why have Hilton’s numbers dropped so significantly? The answer is an easy one quarterback. In 2018, Hilton had Andrew Luck throwing to him. Then, the wheels came off for Indy quarterbacks and ultimately their No. 1 wideout. In 2019 Hilton was catching passes from Jacoby Brissett and in 2020 Hilton was catching dying ducks from Philip Rivers.

T.Y. Hilton Re-Signs With Colts: 2021 Betting & Fantasy Football Outlook

T.Y. Hilton Re-Signs With Colts: With Phillip Rivers out of the picture, Hilton could have a bounce-back year in Indianapolis (Credit: USA TODAY Sports)

In 2021, Hilton will be playing with his fourth different quarterback in as many seasons in the form of Carson Wentz. Like Hilton, Wentz will open 2021 with question marks. Wentz is coming off of a 2020 campaign to forget. However, Wentz is poised to rejuvenate his career in Indianapolis. Not only is Wentz reunited with Frank Reich and a comfortable system that he trusts, but the former No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft will also have the best supporting cast around him, arguably, of his career.

Find out why else I love Wentz to bounce back here.

If Wentz plays up to his draft capital, I expect a bounce-back campaign from Hilton.

While the Colts have morphed into a running team with their top-flight offensive and thunder and lightning backfield, there is room for Hilton to thrive. The Colts averaged the 10th fewest pass plays per game last season (35.9) but still managed roughly 35 pass attempts per game, enough for a home run hitting wideout like Hilton to flourish.

Hilton played through early hamstring and groin injuries in 2020, but finished out the year strong, scoring five total touchdowns in his final six games. Once again manned with a quarterback who can throw the deep ball, look for Hilton to pick up where he left off early and often in 2021.


Colts 2021 NFL Betting Outlook

Colts Super Bowl 56 Winner (+2200)

Player Prop

+2200

2021 Indianapolis Colts To Win Super Bowl LVI

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(Odds courtesy of PointsBet)

The Colts have the ninth-best odds to win Super Bowl 56 entering NFL Draft season. A team that went 10-6 last season with Philip Rivers, now retired, under center, this is a team that is primed to make a deep run of Carson Wentz can find his groove.

Really, for the first time in his career, Wentz will not be the focal point of his offense. That is Jonathan Taylor’s job. With the impending second-year monster back ready to carry the load, Wentz should have a much easier time maneuvering the ball around the opposing secondary to his slew of weapons that include T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman, Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. And while Wentz once had one of the better offensive lines in Philadelphia early in his career, age and injuries caused the Eagles’ front five to regress. With the Colts, Wentz will once again play behind an elite unit.

There is also that defense. The Colts’ defense regressed after a terrific start to 2020 but still managed to finish the year surrendering the 10th fewest points per game (22.6). Indy’s defense is also one of the most-opportunistic units in the NFL. They ended 2020 with the second-best turnover differential (+10).

Indianapolis 2021 Super Bowl run falls on the shoulder of Wentz. If Wentz works, look for the Colts to be at the top of the AFC food chain in January. If you wager the Colts to win the Super Bowl now, you will garner outstanding (+2200) odds.

I’d grab those odds now because if GM Chris Ballard once again knocks the draft out of the park, those odds will trend in the wrong direction for bettors.

Colts to make NFL Playoffs in 2021 (-218)

(Odds courtesy of PointsBet)

The Colts to make the playoffs are only bringing (-218) odds. It’s not great, but it’s close to a lock. Playing in the AFC South with the Jaguars, who are rebuilding and the Texans, the league’s new laughing stock, the only other team in the South that can contend with the Colts is the Titans.

If you’re paying attention, you’ll know that Tennessee’s defense was atrocious last season. They also had catastrophic offseason personnel losses that include OC Arthur Smith, WR Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith, and WR Adam Humphries.

I would take the Colts to make the playoffs and win the division and not look back. You can get (+105) odds for the Colts to win the South right now at PointsBet.

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T.Y. Hilton 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

I mentioned that T.Y. Hilton may no longer be the wide receiver he once was. I also suggested that it is not all Hilton’s fault because of Indy’s quarterback conundrum since the Andrew Luck retirement. It is not a stretch to believe that Carson Wentz will be Hilton’s best quarterback since Luck. If Wentz rejuvenates his career, expect a bounce-back season from Hilton, which bodes well for his fantasy football managers.

Last season, Hilton finished as the PPR WR42. His fantasy reputation is in the tank thanks to the industry’s recency-bias. This is not a bad thing, however. As we stand, Hilton is holding a 10th round ADP (10.06). He is going as the 47th wide receiver off the board in 12 team PPR leagues. If Hilton can get back on track, his upside out-weighs his ADP. I am projecting Hilton as a WR3 with top-end WR2 upside if his health remains intact and his quarterback works.

Hilton could be one of the biggest wide receiver values in 2021 fantasy drafts. With players that include Cole Beasley, Henry Ruggs and Christian Kirk going around him, how can you not take a shot?


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