Here’s our report on 2021 Phillies Win Total Bet: How Many Games Philadelphia Will Win, complete with a 2021 Phillies Wins Over/Under. The Game Day takes a dive into offseason acquisitions and losses to determine potentially profitable win total betting odds.
- Phillies Win Total Over/Under odds and lines courtesy of PointsBet current as of 3/18/2021 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
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2021 Phillies Win Total Bet: How Many Games Will Philadelphia Win?
2021 Phillies Wins Over/Under
- Over 81.5 (-115)
- Under 81.5 (-105)
The Phillies have not won more than 50 percent of their games since 2011. That might make this bet seem easy but at least over the past few seasons, they’ve been extremely close. Despite a 28-32 record last season, the Phillies were essentially a .500 team play-wise and ran into a bit of bad luck. They have improved in each season’s Pythagorean W-L (runs scored divided by runs scored plus allowed while each number is multiplied by 1.83 to stabilize) since 2015. Not that this is the be-all-end-all of end-of-year judgment but it frames a season well enough.
The addition of Bryce Harper two seasons ago was intended to place this team over the top and while that jump has failed to come, this team is improved relative to when he joined. The top prospects this organization had drafted around then are finally up in the majors after successful minor league careers and they have added solid free-agent pieces like Didi Gregorious, Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado and Brad Miller to a win-now roster. Most importantly, they re-signed the best catcher in baseball, J.T. Realmuto, to a top-dollar contract.
The past two seasons with Harper have been fairly tumultuous on the injury front. Former MVP Andrew McCutchen tore his ACL in 2019 after a hot start and returned last season on the wrong foot. McCutchen was a negative WAR player and is looking to bounce back now, another year removed from the knee injury. Rhys Hoskins suffered an elbow injury that shut him down in 2020 and resulted in Tommy John surgery but he is back in action this season. While I am bearish on Hoskins returning to form immediately, his value is derived from getting on base often which he should maintain with his level of plate discipline.
The top of the rotation is very strong with an ace like Aaron Nola and core pieces of Zach Wheeler, Zack Eflin, and soon enough, Spencer Howard. While Matt Moore is a question mark at the back-end he does have some upside if healthy. It is a little tricky having their top-end starters all right-handed due to the NL East’s dominance against them. The Mets and Braves were second and third in wRC+ vs RHP last season and the Nationals just added Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber to a lineup that already features Juan Soto.
Not to say that the Phillies are winning it all this year, but they should be better than recent seasons assuming that health issues can bit any team, any year.
2021 Phillies Win Total Wager: Over 81.5 wins (-115)
This is a VERY good line. The over will not hit by much but my presumption is that this Phillies team is improved from recent years with an influx of high-end youth to the rotation (Spencer Howard) and lineup (Alec Bohm) along with an improved bullpen given the additions of Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado.
Recently added GM Dave Dombrowski is a big-time buyer and will gladly shell out prospects for an improved MLB roster. This team could lose a player or two and manage to replace them with possibly a higher-end piece (unless their name rhymes with Trice Larper).
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