Here’s our report on 2021 Royals Win Total Bet: How Many Games Kansas City Will Win, complete with a 2021 Royals Wins Over/Under. The Game Day takes a dive into offseason acquisitions and losses to determine potentially profitable win total betting odds.
- Royals Win Total Over/Under odds and lines courtesy of PointsBet current as of 3/18/2021 at 11:00 p.m. ET.
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2021 Royals Win Total Bet: How Many Games Will Kansas City Win?
2021 Royals Wins Over/Under
- Over 73.5 wins (-115)
- Under 73.5 wins (-105)
After back-to-back 100-loss seasons in 2018 and 2019, the Royals forged a not-awful 26-34 mark that equated to a fourth-place finish in the AL Central in 2020. Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield unsurprisingly served as Kansas City’s top offensive assets, but there are other high-upside bats on the roster that raise 2021 expectations for the Royals to a certain extent. Additionally, the team made a pair of intriguing offseason signings in Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi, each of which could offer the lineup some much-needed pop.
Perez put together a .333/.353/.633 slash in 2020 that included career-best figures in batting average and slugging percentage. The backstop was in top form after missing all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, and now further removed from the injury, he could be in for a career-high full-season numbers across several categories. Meanwhile, Merrifield, who wields one of the most well-rounded and consistent bats in the majors, could be set to see his average vault back over the .300 mark, where it resided during the 2018 and 2019 campaigns before dipping to .282 last season.
The Royals opted to non-tender Maikel Franco, who was a key complementary contributor in 2020, but are counting on a resurgent season from Hunter Dozier. Dozier, inked to a four-year extension this spring, will look to revert to form after a breakout 2019 that saw him slash .279/.348/.522 with 29 doubles, 10 triples, 26 homers and 84 RBI across 139 games. Dozier produced a lowly .228 average and .392 slugging percentage last season, but his .344 OBP was strong.
Another bounce-back candidate that also wields a big bat is Jorge Soler, who exploded for 48 home runs and 117 RBI, along with a .265/.354/.569 slash, in 2019 before also seeing a 2020 downturn (.228/.326/.443). Soler’s strikeout rate rocketed to a career-worst 34.9 percent after he’d posted a 26.3 percent figure in 2019, so whittling down that number appears to be key to his 2021 success.
Santana and Benintendi are AL transplants, so they should have a certain degree of familiarity during their first seasons in KC. Santana is who he is at this point in his career – he’s typically good for 20-plus homers (with a ceiling of 30), will serve as a strong RBI source and boasts excellent plate discipline. The veteran possesses a lot more patience than the typical long-ball masher, as he’s generated walk rates in the teens throughout his career and sub-20.0 percent strikeout rates in all but one season. While his .199 average last season is alarming on the surface, it was accompanied by an abnormally low .212 BABIP that isn’t going to repeat itself in 2021.
Meanwhile, Benintendi had a shocking fall from grace last season after once being thought of as a possible long-term outfield presence in Boston. Due to a rib injury, the 26-year-old played in just 14 games and finished with an abysmal .103/.314/.128 line over 52 plate appearances. However, given his youth and past pedigree, there’s certainly reason to think Benintendi could prove to be a shrewd acquisition. Now healthy and with a normal-length season ahead of him, he’d be of significant help if he can at least approach the .280/.359/.444 slash he generated over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, a pair of campaigns during which he also averaged 18 homers and 88.5 RBI.
Nicky Lopez helps round out the projected starting lineup and is a highly thought-of prospect that did take a step back in 2020. However, this is the same player that slashed an elite .353/.457/.500 across 31 games at Triple-A Omaha in 2019. Lopez got some valuable seasoning at the big-league level two seasons ago after those numbers earned him a promotion, and this could be the season he’s able to start seeing his natural hitting talent shine through against major-league arms.
The pitching staff is arguably more of a concern for this team than its bats are. Brad Keller serves as the de facto ace, but he has a career 21-23 record would likely slot in as a No. 3 starter on many other clubs. Young Brady Singer did a solid job after being thrust into the fire in 2020 despite not yet having pitched above Double-A ball, generating a 4-5 mark and 4.06 ERA.
Veterans Mike Minor and Danny Duffy are serviceable No. 3 and No. 4 options, with Minor arguably the higher-upside piece of the two considering the four double-digit win seasons on his resume. However, he experienced some major regression in 2020 with a 1-6 record and 5.56 ERA. Southpaw Kris Bubic made an even bigger jump than Singer last season and survived, taking the leap from A-level ball to forge a 4.32 ERA across 50 big-league frames. He’ll likely serve as the No. 5 starter to open the season.
The bullpen shouldn’t hurt for multi-inning relievers, as former starters Jakob Junis and Jesse Hahn figure to be integral components. KC also seems to have the market cornered on veteran setup men/closers looking to revive their careers, as Brad Brach (33 career saves, 89 career holds) and Wade Davis – a member of the Royals’ 2015 World Series squad – are both in the fold. Davis likely is suffering from a bit of PTCS – Post-Traumatic Coors Syndrome – after generating a combined 9.77 ERA and 1.96 WHIP across his last two years in Colorado.
Now back in a much more pitcher-friendly home park, Davis could prove to be a valued setup option alongside Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont for veteran closer Greg Holland, who was excellent in his return to KC last season with a 1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and six saves in as many chances.
2021 Royals Win Total Wager: Under 73.5 wins (-115)
The Royals are likely flying under the radar for many fans, but this team has the potential for a unique lineup that could tire out opposing pitchers with a number of disciplined hitters before the sluggers (sometimes one and the same) drive in all of those baserunners. Even with Dozier and Soler seeing some depressed numbers last season, KC still put together 26 wins in 60 games, and both players certainly have the talent and youth to bounce back.
The concerns primarily rest in the pitching staff. There are enough question marks there and a potential lack of depth to make a 65-to-70-win season a real possibility, especially with KC also playing in the same division as the Twins, Indians and White Sox. While I like the potential for the offense to compete well alongside those clubs, I don’t see the starting pitching, and perhaps the bullpen, truly being able to keep up enough over 162 games. As such, I’m in the camp of the Under on this number, even though I don’t think Mike Matheny’s club will miss it by much.
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