Here’s our report on 2021 Rockies Win Total Bet: How Many Games Colorado Will Win, complete with a 2021 Rockies Wins Over/Under. The Game Day takes a dive into offseason acquisitions and losses to determine potentially profitable win total betting odds.
- Rockies Win Total Over/Under odds and lines courtesy of PointsBet current as of 3/16/2021 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
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2021 Rockies Win Total Bet: How Many Games Will Colorado Win?
2021 Rockies Wins Over/Under
- Over 63.5 wins (-110)
- Under 63.5 wins (-110)
The Colorado Rockies finished 2020 fourth in the National League West, eight games under .500, and 17 games behind the division-leading Dodgers, but only needed 3 more wins to be eligible to make the playoffs in a strange, shortened season.
From 2016-2018, Colorado was competitive in the NL West, finishing a game behind the Dodgers in 2018 for the division lead, but after back-to-back fourth-place finishes, the Rockies are going into 2021 with low expectations surrounding them. The Padres and Dodgers are clear favorites to win the division, but winning records from the Rockies, Giants and Diamondbacks are not unrealistic.
The Rockies have lost fewer than 63 games one time, in the strike-shortened 1994 season when they lost 53 of 117 games. Setting an over/under of 63.5 essentially means that bettors have to decide if Colorado is a 99-100 loss team in 2021. What really matters in projecting their record and making a decision about this is considering if they did enough to offset the loss of Nolan Arenado and improve areas of weakness from last season.
One area of weakness last season for the Rockies was pitching - they finished with a 5.59 team ERA, which was second to last in baseball. Their pitchers threw the fewest strikeouts and allowed the third-highest WHIP. Despite finishing with the second most quality starts, the Rockies finished with the seventh lowest amount of wins, suggesting that the bullpen let the team down last year. Did the Rockies address those needs?
2021 Rockies Win Bet: The Colorado Rockies needed pitching, and they are hoping players like starting pitcher German Marquez can help them hit the over. (Credit: USA TODAY Sports)
Despite adding pitchers Dereck Rodriguez, Chi Chi Gonzalez and Austin Gomber during the offseason, they do not do much to help the Rockies in their areas of need. Gomber, who was acquired as part of the deal that sent Arenado to St. Louis, could prove to be the best out of those additions, but a high walk rate and advanced ERA metrics like FIP, xFIP, and SIERA show that a sterling 2020 season could be a fluke.
The bullpen was another area of the team that was in need of improvement. Daniel Bard, Scott Oberg, Mychal Givens, Yency Almonte, Carlos Estevez and Jairo Diaz all picked up saves last season. Despite not having a clear closer, Colorado did not appear to make an effort to sign one during the offseason. Perhaps they are hoping Robert Stephenson, whom they acquired from the Reds, or rookies Jordan Sheffield and Ben Bowden add strikeouts to the bullpen.
The Rockies’ offense was a bit of a mixed bag last year. They finished at or near the top in the MLB in hits, triples, steals and batting average. They finished in the middle of the pack in runs, RBI, total bases, slugging and OPS. And they were among the worst in baseball in strikeouts, OBP, doubles and home runs. You would think that Coors Field would help the team produce high numbers in home runs, slugging, OBP and OPS, but that wasn’t the case in 2020. Colorado had clear needs in the power department, especially after losing Arenado, but only made one significant acquisition during the offseason.
Colorado added first baseman C.J. Cron in free agency, and while he is no Coors Field Arenado, their stat lines this season may align closely with Arenado playing half of his games in St. Louis. Cron is a power hitter and will bring some pop to a team in desperate need of it. In his only season of more than 500 at-bats, he hit 30 home runs to go along with a .253 batting average. That season was 2018, where he played in Tampa’s Tropicana Field. Now he’s playing at Coors.
If there is anything Coors does for batters, it is improve their batting average and power statistics. A .260 avg., 35 HR, 85 RBI season is realistic and could help the Rockies in a big way. That is not enough to make up for losing a star, but some changes to the rest of the lineup may help the Rockies improve.
The Rockies are hoping that infielder Ryan McMahon takes a step forward this season. He improved steadily from his 2017 debut to 2019 but struggled to make adjustments last year. The Rockies were also hoping star prospect Brendan Rodgers could make the team out of camp and fulfill the hype that has surrounded him as he has worked his way through Colorado’s minor league system. An injury during Spring Training could derail those plans temporarily.
Colorado also has some interesting young outfielders like Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard and Garrett Hampson who could all help the team’s chances this year by showing some improvements. Hilliard is an intriguing young player who has shown the ability in the minors to hit for power and steal bases. If he can decrease his strikeout rate even a little bit, he could be an impactful player for Colorado. While the Rockies have not added many players from outside the organization, additions and improvements from within the organization could help the Rockies avoid being bottom dwellers in baseball this year.
Colorado also has a few important returning veterans. German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland return to the rotation. Marquez and Gray have strikeout upside, but playing in Coors hurts their ERA. Trevor Story will at least start the season as Colorado’s shortstop. There has been speculation surrounding a Story trade for the last year. The Rockies should be good enough that they will not trade him as part of a selloff, but if they do trade him, it still is unlikely they lose 100 games. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon returns for another season. He’ll turn 35 in the summer, is a liability on defense, and is unlikely to hit 30+ home runs this year, but he is still a good hitter and will help the Rockies offense with his average and his ability to get on base and score runs.
2021 Rockies Win Total Wager: Over 63.5 wins (-110)
Despite not addressing areas of need directly, by signing players in free agency or trading for big-name stars, the Rockies are hoping that in-house options help fix some of those problem areas for the 2021 season.
The Rockies will probably never have the best pitching statistics, simply because of where they play their home games, but even if a few of their young players improve, and they get a decent season out of Cron, they should be able to avoid losing 99 games. Bet the over for the Rockies in 2021.
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