The first full week of the MLB season is about to begin. After a long 99-day lockout and many days of thinking that there would be no baseball this year, we’ve finally got meaningful baseball to watch. And to bet on.
I’ll be posting my MLB best bets every Monday and Wednesday throughout the regular season. Let’s start this week off with a bang.
All MLB odds are current as of Monday, April 11, at 9 a.m. ET from Caesars Sportsbook.
MLB Best Bet Today
Brewers @ Orioles: OVER 9 Total Runs (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
After a miserable campaign in 2021, the same is expected in 2022 because the Orioles literally didn’t do anything to improve their roster, especially on the pitching side.
Bruce Zimmerman is expected to take the hill for the first time this season after finishing last year with a 4-5 record, 5.04 ERA, and 1.51 WHIP. The left-hander was rocked by hitters on both sides of the plate, with lefties putting up a .386 wOBA and righties posting a .348 wOBA.
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The Brewers should ultimately have seven or eight righties in the lineup tonight, and most of them, including Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe, hit plenty of line drives. It’s a great matchup for the Brewers’ bats.
On the pitching side, Adrian Houser will get the call for the Brewers. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, striking out just 17.9% of batters last season while walking 10.7%.
The projected lineup for the Orioles hits the ball in the air plenty, and with the wind blowing out at 10 mph, the ball should fly today.
Take the Over for the MLB bet of the day.
MLB Bet Today
Padres @ Giants: Giants Moneyline (-150)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Nick Martinez is lined up for his first MLB start since 2017. The right-hander pitched for four seasons in Japan (and the Olympics) before making his way back to the bigs, posting an ERA just above 3.00 while striking out over seven batters per nine innings.
It’s hard to know exactly how Martinez will do tonight, but we do know the Giants utilize platoons to create matchup advantages against opposing teams. We also know that Alex Wood will take the mound against the Padres, and that the Padres have been awful against lefties dating back to last season.
I’ll put my money on Alex Wood, who was a potential Cy Young candidate early last season.
MLB Longshot Bet Today
Rockies @ Rangers: Rockies Run Line -1.5 (+165)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Rockies have one of the best lineups in baseball against lefties, and last night, they knocked Julio Urias out of the game early after scoring six runs with no strikeouts in two innings.
The Rockies will now face lefty Taylor Hearn, who is much worse than Julio Urias.
Hearn posted a 5.06 xFIP with 9.4% walks and 21.4% strikeouts last season, and righties hit him extremely well, posting a .336 wOBA and .181 ISO over 283 plate appearances.
The Rockies lineup starts with four guys who had an .255 ISO or better and .390 wOBA or better against lefties last season: Connor Joe, Kris Bryant, Brendan Rodgers, and C.J. Cron. Cron already hit a home run last night against Urias.
Austin Gomber will get the start for Colorado. He’ll no doubt be looking at a righty-heavy lineup as well, but if he can limit the Rangers’ right-handed power — namely, Marcus Semien and Mitch Garver, who both mashed LHP last year — and limit walks, he should be able to cruise on by.
Take the underdog Rockies at -1.5.
