2021 Astros Prop Bets: Houston Futures Odds & Picks For AL Championship, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman

For the 2021 MLB preseason, The Game Day has compiled 2021 Astros Prop Bets, including Houston Futures Odds & Picks. I’ll list a few 2021 Astros Picks, Player Props and Team Prop wagers that MLB bettors can target.

Houston Astros Futures Bets: 2021 Team & Player Props

Player Props & Futures 

(Odds provided by PointsBet)

2021 AL MVP

  • Alex Bregman (+1000)
  • Jose Altuve (+4000)
  • Carlos Correa (+4000)
  • Kyle Tucker (+4000)

It’s a testament to how much faith there still is in the talent on the Astros roster — despite the team seemingly not coming together until the postseason last year — that they have four players on the AL MVP leaderboard. Houston had no shortage of adversity to deal with leading up to and during the unique 2020 campaign, and as a result, most of what had been their most reliable year-to-year pieces had uncharacteristic struggles at the plate.

Bregman is certainly Exhibit A in that regard. That said, his pedigree is such that even after mustering a pedestrian .242 average and modest six home runs across 180 plate appearances a season ago, he’s got the second-shortest odds to garner the AL MVP behind the venerable Mike Trout. The fact Bregman, arguably just entering his prime at age 26, posted a .291/.409/.561 slash and averaged 36 home runs and 107.5 RBI across the 2018 and 2019 seasons certainly supports his high probability of garnering an honor he already received 13 first-place votes after the latter campaign.

A look at Bregman’s underlying 2020 metrics also helps assuage concerns about the decline in his power numbers. While the talented third baseman did see some drops in barrels and hard-hit rate, he also put the ball in the air nearly five percent less frequently and actually averaged 13 more feet of distance – 395, compared to 2019’s 382 – on his home runs.

Bregman’s strikeout rate also inched up slightly from 12.0 percent to a still-elite 14.4 percent, but he remains one of the best contact long-ball hitters in all of baseball and has excellent plate discipline for a player of his prodigious power.

Player Prop

+1000

Alex Bregman To Win 2021 AL MVP

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Altuve particularly had the spotlight shining on him in 2020 after his allegedly egregious role in the sign-stealing scandal, and the fact he saw his slash line drop to an abysmal .219/.286/.344 (210 plate appearances), his strikeout rate rise to a career-high 18.6 percent and his hard-hit rate drop from 40.9 percent to 30.7 percent over the prior season certainly didn’t help proclaim his innocence.

Nevertheless, Altuve showed plenty of flashes of the player that had generated a .327/.380/.497 slash over the previous six seasons once Houston got into the playoffs, with the veteran second baseman posting a .375/.500/.729 line with seven extra-base hits (two doubles, five home runs), 11 walks, 11 RBI and 11 runs across 13 postseason games.


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Much like his infield mate Bregman, Correa saw a power drain in 2020 that led to just five home runs in 221 plate appearances and some declines in metrics such as hard-hit rate, barrels and exit velocity. He also experienced a significant drop in flyball rate (39.6 percent to 29.4 percent) but actually boosted the average distance on his home runs to 419 feet (from 2019’s 402), demonstrating there was still plenty of pop, even if it was mostly latent.

Then, similar to Altuve, Correa became a different player in the postseason and slashed .362/.455/.766 with a double, six home runs, 17 RBI, eight walks and seven runs across 13 games.

Tucker is the least established member of this quartet yet notably carries the same odds as two much higher-pedigreed teammates. However, after two elite seasons at the Triple-A level in 2018 and 2019 and having shown he can more than hold his own against big-league arms over his first 300 MLB plate appearances (.268/.323/.518 slash, 37 extra-base hits, 53 RBI), expectations are clearly high for Tucker. The 24-year-old has a lock on the everyday job in right field and should have a solid amount of protection around him in the lineup as he embarks on what should be his first full major-league season.

Bregman, Altuve and Correa obviously all have the talent to enjoy resurgent-enough seasons to capture this award. Bregman and Correa particularly present good value based on their age and proven power, with Correa carrying extra risk due to his injury history.

Altuve proved he could still get it done in the short sample of the postseason, but he carries some uncertainty due to his more advanced age (31 in May), the fact he doesn’t have the same power as his other teammates, and the very real possibility he truly benefited more than others from any malfeasance that went on prior to 2020.

Tucker may simply be a year or two away and could experience some growing pains in a 162-game marathon, but he certainly looks like he has the tools to be a perennial future contender.


2021 Most Regular-Season Home Runs

  • Yordan Alvarez (+2000)

Player Prop

+2000

Yordan Alvarez To Lead MLB In Home Runs For 2021

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Interestingly, it’s Alvarez and not Bregman and/or Correa making an appearance in this market. The 23-year-old does wield an impressive bat that led to him belting 27 home runs in just 369 plate appearances as a rookie in 2019, on his way to a jaw-dropping .655 slugging percentage. Alvarez then saw action in only two games last season due to a COVID-19 infection and a knee injury.

In a talented lineup that should help insulate him from being pitched around too often, and with a DH role that will let him focus solely on the bat, Alvarez is certainly a darkhorse candidate if his knee is back to 100 percent.


2021 Most Regular-Season RBI

  • Yordan Alvarez (+3000)
  • Alex Bregman (+4000)

Alvarez was outstanding with men on base, and men in scoring position specifically, in 2019. He slashed .323/.422/.623 in the former scenario and .344/.427/.677 in the latter. The young slugger was also a solid RBI man throughout his time in the minors, totaling 214 across 1,023 plate appearances. If the likes of Altuve, Michael Brantley and Bregman hit ahead of him as projected, Alvarez should have no shortage of opportunities to drive in runs.

Player Prop

+3000

Yordan Alvarez To Lead MLB In RBI For 2021

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Bregman is an excellent position himself, and with longer odds than his teammate and a pair of 100-RBI campaigns already on his resume, he makes for an excellent value wager. Bregman should have Altuve and Brantley slotting ahead of him in the lineup on most days, a pair of potential on-base percentage studs. If Bregman gets his power game back in gear as discussed earlier, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to be right in the thick of the race for the RBI crown deep into September.

Player Prop

+4000

Alex Bregman To Lead MLB In RBI For 2021

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2021 AL Cy Young Award

  • Zack Greinke (+3500)
  • Cristian Javier (+7000)
  • Jose Urquidy (+7000)

Player Prop

+3500

Zack Greinke To Win 2021 AL Cy Young

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With Justin Verlander set to miss the season due to Tommy John surgery, Greinke, a 2009 AL Cy Young winner with the Royals, is the clear ace of the staff to start the season. The ageless right-hander did see his ERA and WHIP rise to 4.03 and 1.13, respectively, over last season’s small 12-start sample, but his K/9 (9.0) and strikeout rate (24.5 percent) actually both saw improvement over the previous two seasons. Greinke posted an 18-5 record, 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP just two years ago while splitting time with the Diamondbacks and Astros, and as he demonstrated by issuing just nine walks across 67 innings in 2020, he still possesses impeccable control.

2021 Astros Prop Bets: Houston Futures Odds & Picks include possible value on Zack Greinke for AL Cy Young Award

2021 Astros Prop Bets: Houston Futures Odds & Picks include possible value on Zack Greinke for AL Cy Young Award. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Javier’s spring training just encountered a significant speed bump on Friday, March 5 when he was placed in health and safety protocols. However, assuming the talented right-hander eventually emerges without any long-term setbacks, he should play a pivotal role in Houston’s rotation all season. Javier has elite strikeout potential largely courtesy of a wicked slider, but he has fairly long odds for a reason after having all of 10 big-league starts to his name.

Urquidy has just a tad more MLB skins on the wall (12 starts) than Javier, and he raised expectations last season by lowering his ERA from 3.95 to 2.73 and WHIP from 1.10 to 1.01 compared to his first taste of the big leagues in 2019. The right-hander did an excellent job limiting hard contact despite a fastball that only averages just over 93 mph, but it remains to be seen how he’ll perform over a full season and whether he can muster the type of big K numbers that often make for an excellent complementary piece to a Cy Young-worthy resume.


Houston Astros Futures Bets: 2021 Team Props

AL West Winner (+135)

AL Winner (+950)

World Series Winner (+2200)

Earlier this offseason, I wrote up the Astros as the smart money bet for the AL West crown at +150 odds at the time. I’m therefore not surprised to see their odds creep up to +135 over subsequent weeks, a figure that now gives them an equal chance of winning the division as the defending West champs, the Athletics.

As already outlined, Houston has a strong array of talented arms and bats, with many of the offensive players having uncharacteristically underperformed last season. An ascension back to the mean for talents such as Altuve, Bregman and Correa along with contributions from Alvarez and Brantley, among others, could once again make this one of the most feared lineups in the AL.

As such, I also like a 2021 Astros pick as a strong value for the AL pennant.

prop bet

+950

Houston Astros To Win American League in 2021

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Not having Verlander is obviously a monumental setback, and Dusty Baker’s squad does have to rely heavily on a pair of talented but not completely proven arms in Javier and Urquidy to help fill the void. However, given how this club turned it on in the postseason a year ago, there’s certainly plenty of reason to take a plunge.

Houston’s WS odds are also a solid value as the 10th-shortest on the board at the time of this writing. The caliber of offense and pitching the team can muster if healthy would certainly play well in a short series, and this is a squad with no shortage of big-game experience.


After you read The Game Day’s “2021 Astros Prop Bets: Houston Futures Odds & Picks” and deciding on your favorite Astros Player and Team Prop Bets:

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