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2021 Padres Prop Bets: San Diego Futures Odds & Picks For Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Yu Darvish

Posted: Mar 1, 2021Last updated: Apr 1, 2021

For the 2021 MLB preseason, The Game Day has compiled 2021 Padres Prop Bets, including San Diego Futures Odds & 2021 Padres Picks. I’ll list a few 2021 Padres Picks and Player Props and Team Prop wagers that MLB bettors can target.

The San Diego Padres aren’t resting on their laurels after winning an NL Wild Card Series last year before being swept in the NL Division Series by the eventual World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. On the contrary, as they’ve swung impactful trades to acquire Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove while keeping an offense that finished fifth in wRC+ (115), according to FanGraphs, intact. 

The Friars are one of the most talented teams in baseball. My favorite forthcoming player props and team futures reflect that.

(Odds provided by PointsBet as of February 27)

San Diego Padres Futures Bets: 2021 Team & Player Props

Player Props & Futures

2021 NL MVP

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (+850)
  • Manny Machado (+2000)

The left side of San Diego’s defense features two of my favorite NL MVP Award picks. The duo of Machado and Tatis finished third and fourth, respectively, in voting for the hardware last year, and it wasn’t the product of a pandemic-shortened-season fluke.

2021 Padres Prop Bets: San Diego Futures Odds & Picks For Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Yu Darvish

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s success hitting for power was not just a pandeemic-year fluke, but how many home runs will the youngster be able to launch out under his new contract? (Credit: USA Today Sports)

Total Home Runs by Tatis Jr.

  • Over 35.5 (-118) - Line from BetRivers as of February 27.

PETCO Park in San Diego slightly suppresses homers to right-handed batters with a park factor of 0.970, according to the three-year average used at FantasyPros. It’s not ideal for hitting dingers, but it hasn’t stopped Tatis from ripping them at a high rate. 

He smashed 17 in 257 plate appearances last year, running his total up to 39 in 629 plate appearances spread across 143 games in his career. Essentially, that’s a full season of plate appearances. That’s a good foundation for supporting the over, but his batted-ball data pushes that wager selection over the top.

Tatis ranked first in barrels per plate appearance percentage (12.5 Brls/PA%) and second in flyball/line-drive exit velocity (100.2 mph) in 2020, according to Baseball Savant.

I’m not often a fan of betting on a negative-line future, but this is an exception to that rule. I love Tatis’s homer over.


2021 NL Cy Young Award

  • Yu Darvish (+1000)
  • Blake Snell (+1200)
  • Dinelson Lamet (+2500)
  • Joe Musgrove (+5000)
  • Chris Paddack (+6000)

San Diego’s entire rotation makes the cut for the top 30 NL Cy Young Award betting favorites. Suffice to say the rotation is in the discussion for MLB’s best. Out of the quintet, Darvish is my favorite betting option.


2021 Most Regular Season Pitcher Strikeouts

  • Yu Darvish (+1200)

Darvish ranked fifth in innings (76), tied for seventh in strikeouts (93), and ninth in strikeout percentage (31.3 K%) as well as a swinging-strike percentage (14.4 SwStr%) among qualified pitchers last season, per FanGraphs

Between the ability to rack up innings, miss bats and parlay empty swings into strikeouts, Darvish is a great betting option to lead MLB pitchers in strikeouts this year. Additionally, with it appearing unlikely the NL will use a designated hitter again this year, he and other upper-echelon NL hurlers get a slight nudge above their similarly talented AL counterparts. 

Author

Josh Shepardson

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