The Big 12 is the toughest NCAAB conference in the country. According to KenPom, the average Big 12 team would beat the average team in the country by 18 points. The next toughest conference is the SEC, and the average Big 12 team would beat the average SEC team by almost four points.
Of the ten teams in the Big 12 (one of my favorite ironies in college sports), seven are projected to make the NCAA tournament (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State, TCU, and Oklahoma).
After Saturday’s win against defending 2021 National Champion Baylor, Kansas is comfortably in first place in the Big 12 with an 8-1 conference record. Even though Texas is in fourth place with a 6-4 conference record, they are the 20th ranked team in the AP Top 25 Poll.
Unlike most Kansas games that are more lopsided, tonight’s game is harder to predict. The Jayhawks would be favored by about 3.5 points in a neutral court matchup, but they must go to Austin to face the Longhorns in what is expected to be a tossup.
Please note that all college basketball odds and lines are current as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, February 7.
Kansas vs. Texas Predictions
For Texas, tonight’s game will be the biggest conference test of the season.
The Longhorns have played the 18th easiest non-conference schedule, according to KenPom. Despite playing an easy non-conference schedule, Texas played three strong teams in Gonzaga, Seton Hall, and Tennessee. Texas lost to Gonzaga and Seton Hall and narrowly beat Tennessee by only a point.
Kansas will be a much tougher opponent than any team they have played, aside from Gonzaga.
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For Kansas, their only loss in conference play was against Texas Tech. On Saturday, they hosted Baylor in a game I thought they would lose, despite being a favorite. The Jayhawks were 2.5-point favorites, and they won 83-59.
After that win, the Jayhawks jumped to an 8-1 record in conference play. What should be noted about Kansas is that they won four of their eight conference victories by only one possession. If those other teams had better luck in those games, then the Big 12 regular-season conference championship race would be wider open.
Both teams play wildly different styles. Texas has one of the slowest tempo offenses and defenses, as they have the 11th slowest adjusted tempo in the country. The Longhorns will look to keep Kansas at bay in a one or two possession game.
Texas has the 9th best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country but only the 42nd best-adjusted offensive efficiency. Kansas has the 3rd best-adjusted efficiency and only the 30th best defensive efficiency.
The question is, how will the Jayhawks’ offense do against the Longhorns’ defense?
It will be a close game, but I believe Kansas should win despite being on the road.
Kansas vs. Texas Prediction: Kansas 65, Texas 63
Kansas vs. Texas Best Bet
Best Bet: Kansas -1 (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1.5 Units
This season, Texas has yet to impress me other than their narrow victory against Tennessee. They lost to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Seton Hall, all teams weaker than Kansas.
This last weekend Kansas impressed me, and I’m taking them as one-point favorites tonight against Texas as my CBB bet of the day.