2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Sleepers
@TaylorTarter2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets: Most of the players with the best odds at leading the majors in steals have done it before; however, there are a few players on the top 10 list that are going to make betting on the stolen base leader very interesting, including some 2021 stolen base sleepers who might be worth your bet. Odds used for 2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets are courtesy of PointsBet.
2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets
MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds
- Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals (+120)
- Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals (+350)
- Ronald Acuna, OF Atlanta Braves (+700)
- Whit Merrifield, 2B, Kansas City Royals (+700)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres (+900)
- Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (+1500)
- Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies (+1500)
- Starling Marte, OF, Miami Marlins (+2000)
- Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox (+2000)
- Myles Straw, OF, Houston Astros (+2000)
Five of the names on this list have worn the stolen base crown in their respective divisions. Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna, and Trevor Story have led the National League in stolen bases, while Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi have led the American League (Merrifield did it twice). Merrifield narrowly beat Turner for the overall lead in 2018, 45-43. Adalberto Mondesi led the MLB in the shortened 2020 season with 24 steals.
Half of the players with the best odds to win the stolen base title have never even led their division in steals, let alone the MLB. That doesn’t mean they can’t do it, though.
2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Sleepers. Miami Marlins OF Starling Marte could be a value bet to lead the majors in stolen bases. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Top promotions
2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Bet Picks
2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader: Smart Money Bets
Adalberto Mondesi (+120)
prop bet
+120
Adalberto Mondesi To Lead MLB In Stolen Bases For 2021
Bet $20, Payout $44
Adalberto Mondesi is projected by most outlets to swipe somewhere around 50 bags. He’s never stolen that many bases before – his high was 43 in 2019. He has solid metrics when it comes to base-running. His BsR, which is like WAR for base-running, is well above league average for his career. This means when he gets on base, he shows the awareness and the ability to pick up steals.
The issue for Mondesi is actually getting on base. His career strikeout rate is 29.7%, and his career OBP is only .294. Despite those numbers, he is very fast, and seems to have the green light to run when he gets on base.
Combined with excellent base-running metrics, he’s a safe bet to repeat as the MLB stolen base leader.
Trea Turner (+350)
prop bet
+350
Trea Turner To Lead MLB In Stolen Bases For 2021
Bet $20, Payout $90
Another smart bet would be to put money on Trea Turner. He’s had seasons of 33, 35, 43, and 46 steals, but what’s crazy is that the 43 steal season was the only season in which he played more than 125 games. Injuries have limited him to shortened seasons, but that makes his stolen base numbers in those seasons all the more impressive.
He was on pace for about 33 steals in 2020, had the season gone a full 162 games. Unlike Mondesi, Turner’s on base percentage is exceptional at .353, and batting leadoff will give Turner a lot of at-bats to get on base. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for a healthy Trea Turner to steal 50+ bases in 2021.
2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Sleepers, including the Astros’ Myles Straw. If Straw gets 400+ plate appearances, he could cash in with big returns. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader: Sleeper Bets
Starling Marte (+2000)
Player Prop
+2000
Starling Marte To Lead MLB In Stolen Bases For 2021
Bet $20, Payout $420
Starling Marte has never had a season of single-digit steals, and he’s had multiple campaigns of both 30 and 40+ steals. He spent most of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but now plays for the Miami Marlins. The Marlins do not have a ton of big bats, so they are going to have to manufacture runs in 2021, and will have to rely on players like Marte to steal to get in good scoring position.
Marte is a good base runner, he has a career .341 OBP, and actually has a comparable speed score to Trea Turner. Marte is a bit of a long shot to win the MLB stolen base title, but at +2000 odds, the reward might be worth the risk.
Myles Straw (+2000)
prop bet
+2000
Myles Straw To Lead MLB In Stolen Bases For 2021
Bet $20, Payout $420
Myles Straw is the most likely candidate to fill the Houston Astros’ center field void left by George Springer. Though he hasn’t had a ton of Major League experience, his numbers in the minors show that he is very adept at stealing bases, and has shown the ability to steal at every level. Most projection systems seem to think he will steal around 30 bases, but he has excellent speed and has maintained solid on-base numbers throughout his career.
What might keep Straw from leading the MLB in steals is simply at-bats. He hit all throughout the lineup in 2020, but most of his at-bats came at 8th in the order. Hitting that late in the order will limit his ability to get on base at a high rate like Trea Turner. Straw did bat leadoff in 10 games last season, but it will be hard for him to work his way into the top of an order that includes Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and Michael Brantley.
Although Straw might not have the highest chance of leading the majors in steals, +2000 odds make him an interesting option for those that want to take a chance on an underdog.
⚾ After you read 2021 MLB Stolen Base Leader Futures Bets: Picks and Sleepers, use these 2021 Stolen Base Leader Futures and 2021 Stolen Base Sleepers to make 2021 MLB Futures Bets at PointsBet (with our Welcome Offer of 2 Risk-Free Bets up to $2000) on Stolen Base Leader Odds listed at at another of our preferred sportsbooks. ⚾
