It’s finally Week 18! If you’ve made it this far in your survivor pool, you’ve done extremely well. At this point, you can’t take half of the league, but ultimately, you just need to find one team that will win in Week 18 to win a huge prize.
I’m already eliminated. I’ve been eliminated since Mike White went wild against the Bengals back in the middle of the season. There have been dozens of crazy upsets this year that have forced many players out of their pools.
With an extra week this season, these pools are harder than ever. I’m going to try my best to help you select the best available team for the final week of the Survivor Pool. Best of luck!
All NFL Week 18 odds and lines are current as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, January 5.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 18
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news.
2022 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 18
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Don’t read into the narrative that the Colts can’t win on the road against Jacksonville. These Jaguars are a completely different team than the ones Leonard Fournette and Blake Bortles were part of.
These Jaguars are a two-win team that just got absolutely smacked by the Patriots, giving up 50 points in a blowout loss.
If the Colts want to make the postseason, they’ll really need to win this game against the Jaguars. I expect them to be up to the task, so take on the Colts and enjoy your winnings while they celebrate making the playoffs. It’s a win-win.
We bet against the Jaguars last week with the Patriots and we’ll finish it off with another fade of the Jaguars. The Colts have an 83.89 percent chance of winning against the Jaguars on the road and are a 15.5-point favorite. The Patriots easily covered that same spread last week per our NFL gameday odds.
Betting Pick: Colts -15.5 (-110) at Caesars
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Washington Football Team @ New York Giants
If you’ve already used the Colts and have used most of the projected playoff teams, there’s still one more spot you can roll with.
Why not take Washington over the Giants? I know the Giants are at home, but Joe Judge‘s squad has shown no signs of life throughout the entire season. With Mike Glennon at quarterback, the Giants lost 29-3 to a bad Chicago Bears team and haven’t scored more than 21 points in their last five games.
- Read our full Washington vs Giants Predictions & Best Bets.
Washington is pretty banged up as well, but they’ve at least been putting up a fight against competition (outside of that Dallas game). Washington lost to the Eagles 20-16 and had two other losses in their last four games that were by a deficit of 10 or fewer.
The Prediction Tracker has the Football Team winning 53.2 percent of the time. However, I would have to think Washington has a great chance of winning this game.
Betting Pick: Washington -7 (-110) at Caesars
2022 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
The Detroit Lions could be without Jared Goff. That’s not fun knowing that Goff could be out for the final game of the season. But there’s a good chance that the Packers sit their best players and elect to roll with Jordan Love at quarterback.
- Read our full Packers vs Lions Predictions & Best Bets.
The Lions are only a 2.5-point underdog at home against the Packers, who will more than likely use a quarterback that hasn’t developed as expected.
Meanwhile, Tim Boyle has helped the Lions progress offensively, scoring 29 points last week. There’s reason to think the Lions could sneak out a win to finish the season against a Packers team of backups.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Let me set this straight. I don’t think the Texans end up winning this game, but I’d be a bit careful taking the Titans.
Remember earlier this year when the Titans ended up losing to the Texans by nine points? That’ll keep me away from betting the Titans.
Still, the Titans out-gained the Texans by plenty of yards and dominated them throughout the game. The only issue was their five turnovers to the Houston’s zero.
I don’t think the Titans turn the ball over like that in this game, but just be aware that the Texans already knocked them off once this season.
Thanks for reading our Week 18 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL bet of the day.
