NFL Player Prop Bets Week 16 | Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, & More Predictions

Welcome to Week 16!

Things are shaping up to be just as crazy this week as they were last week, so we’re going to have to stay on our toes with checking on player availability leading into the weekend.

With so many players whose status is up in the air, we’ll need to dig deep to find solid value out there.

All NFL gameday odds for Week 16 player prop bets are current as of December 23 at 9:00 a.m. ET.


Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 16

Check out the best player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool, including projections to help you make the best decisions.

Click “Place Bet” to unlock the associated sportsbook’s welcome offer and place your bet.

Learn more about NFL prop bets and the best sportsbooks for prop betting.


Broncos vs Raiders Player Props

Derek Carr Under 244.5 Passing Yards (EVEN) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Derek Carr has come back down to Earth after a strong start to the season, and has only thrown for more than 245 yards in two of his last five games (including two of his last three). A big part of that has had to do with the loss of Darren Waller, as Carr hasn’t had many solid receiving options at his disposal.

The Broncos are also very solid against the pass and have only allowed 228.1 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. While Carr lit up the Broncos back in Week 6, that was a very different Raiders offense.

Player Prop

0

Derek Carr: UNDER 244.5 Passing Yards vs Broncos

DEN @ LV | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $20

Drew Lock Over 200.5 Passing Yards (EVEN) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Drew Lock is a gunslinger. While that may not be a great thing for him in terms of winning games, it’s a good thing for us. While the Broncos will likely try to rely on Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams as much as possible, Lock isn’t going to act like a game manager, either.

The Raiders defense presents a tough matchup as they’ve allowed just 235.4 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Still, 234 is a lot more than 200.

Lock also looked halfway decent last week in relief of Teddy Bridgewater, so I think we can lock (pun intended) him in here.

Player Prop

0

Drew Lock: OVER 200.5 Passing Yards @ Raiders

DEN @ LV | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $20

Bills vs Patriots Player Props

Gabriel Davis Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

I liked Gabriel Davis in this game before I knew Cole Beasley would be out, and I like him even more now that Beasley will miss this week’s game. Davis had a potentially game-saving play against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and he exploded with 85 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers last week.

He’s seen 15 targets over his last two games and should see plenty of one-on-one coverage with the Patriots likely selling out to stop Stefon Diggs. That coverage will also likely come against Jalen Mills, who is a favorable matchup for almost any receiver.

Player Prop

-115

Gabriel Davis: OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards @ Patriots

BUF @ NE | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $37

Josh Allen Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

I know the Patriots have a really good defense (heck, I’m a Patriots fan), but I think they’re a bit overrated in terms of what their stats look like on paper. They’ve only allowed 201.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and are No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed per game.

However, they’ll have to face Josh Allen this week. And they won’t get the benefit of gale force winds this time. The Patriots can be run upon, but the Bills generally don’t like to run the ball much, so we should see plenty of Allen in the air. 249 passing yards is very attainable in that scenario.

Player Prop

-115

Josh Allen: OVER 248.5 Passing Yards @ Patriots

BUF @ NE | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $37

Ravens vs Bengals Player Props

Ja’Marr Chase Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Ja’Marr Chase has fallen off his torrid pace from earlier in the season, but he has a great chance to get back on track this week.

The Ravens are the seventh-worst team in the league in terms of yardage allowed to opposing wide receivers, and they’re dealing with a lot of injuries to their secondary right now. Chase is still seeing a decent amount of targets (20 over his last three games), so he should be able to get back on track against the Ravens pass funnel defense.

Player Prop

-115

Ja'Marr Chase: OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards vs Ravens

BAL @ CIN | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $37

Joe Burrow Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

The Ravens are statistically the best team in the league in terms of limiting rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but that’s also a bit of a misleading statistic because opposing quarterbacks have also rushed the least amount of times against them.

Joe Burrow isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson as a rusher, but he’s topped this total six times this year, and we’re only talking about seven yards here. Burrow could easily hit this total with one scramble.

Player Prop

-120

Joe Burrow: OVER 6.5 Rushing Yards vs Ravens

BAL @ CIN | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $37

Top Week 16 NFL Player Props

Devin Singletary Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars

Bills vs Patriots

Wager: 2 Units

While the Bills don’t really like running the ball, they’d be crazy not to against the Patriots this week. New England has been gashed by the run every time opponents have committed to the ground game this year.

Devin Singletary has reclaimed the top spot in the Bills backfield and has seen double-digit carries in three of his last four games (the exception being when the Bills were down big against the Buccaneers and had to throw to get back in the game).

This is more of a bet against the Patriots run defense than it is an endorsement of Singletary’s skills, but I think we’ve got a lot of things working in our favor here.

Player Prop

-115

Devin Singletary: OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards @ Patriots

BUF @ NE | 12/26, 1:00 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $37

Courtland Sutton Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars

Broncos vs Raiders

Wager: 2 Units

I understand any trepidation here. Courtland Sutton has been pretty unproductive lately. He’s only topped 20 receiving yards once in his last six games. He’s also only seen more than three targets in two of those games. That’s not good.

So why do I like him? Six of Drew Lock’s 12 passes last week were targeted at Sutton. That’s a pretty small sample, but it’s also a ridiculous target share. And 24 yards really isn’t a whole lot of yards. If Sutton sees seven targets (or more) like he did last week, he should have no trouble topping this prop.

Player Prop

-115

Courtland Sutton: OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards @ Raiders

DEN @ LV | 12/26, 4:25 PM ET

Caesars Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,001 Free Bet + Free NBA Jersey
Caesars Sportsbook Logo

Bet $20, Payout $37

Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 44-56, -13.0 Units

Related articles

Promotions

Welcome offer Caesars Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,001 First Bet Match + Free NBA Jersey

5 stars
Welcome offer FOX Bet promotion

Get Up To $500 Risk-Free

5 stars
Welcome offer BetMGM Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,000 Risk-Free

5 stars
Welcome offer Betway Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Risk-Free

5 stars

Schedule & Odds

Top Offers

NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page