Welcome to Week 16!
Things are shaping up to be just as crazy this week as they were last week, so we’re going to have to stay on our toes with checking on player availability leading into the weekend.
With so many players whose status is up in the air, we’ll need to dig deep to find solid value out there.
All NFL gameday odds for Week 16 player prop bets are current as of December 23 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 16
Check out the best player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool, including projections to help you make the best decisions.
Click “Place Bet" to unlock the associated sportsbook’s welcome offer and place your bet.
Learn more about NFL prop bets and the best sportsbooks for prop betting.
Broncos vs Raiders Player Props
Derek Carr Under 244.5 Passing Yards (EVEN) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Derek Carr has come back down to Earth after a strong start to the season, and has only thrown for more than 245 yards in two of his last five games (including two of his last three). A big part of that has had to do with the loss of Darren Waller, as Carr hasn’t had many solid receiving options at his disposal.
The Broncos are also very solid against the pass and have only allowed 228.1 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. While Carr lit up the Broncos back in Week 6, that was a very different Raiders offense.
Drew Lock Over 200.5 Passing Yards (EVEN) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Drew Lock is a gunslinger. While that may not be a great thing for him in terms of winning games, it’s a good thing for us. While the Broncos will likely try to rely on Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams as much as possible, Lock isn’t going to act like a game manager, either.
The Raiders defense presents a tough matchup as they’ve allowed just 235.4 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Still, 234 is a lot more than 200.
Lock also looked halfway decent last week in relief of Teddy Bridgewater, so I think we can lock (pun intended) him in here.
Bills vs Patriots Player Props
Gabriel Davis Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I liked Gabriel Davis in this game before I knew Cole Beasley would be out, and I like him even more now that Beasley will miss this week’s game. Davis had a potentially game-saving play against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, and he exploded with 85 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers last week.
He’s seen 15 targets over his last two games and should see plenty of one-on-one coverage with the Patriots likely selling out to stop Stefon Diggs. That coverage will also likely come against Jalen Mills, who is a favorable matchup for almost any receiver.
Josh Allen Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I know the Patriots have a really good defense (heck, I’m a Patriots fan), but I think they’re a bit overrated in terms of what their stats look like on paper. They’ve only allowed 201.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and are No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed per game.
- See our best NFL Week 16 Prop Bets.
However, they’ll have to face Josh Allen this week. And they won’t get the benefit of gale force winds this time. The Patriots can be run upon, but the Bills generally don’t like to run the ball much, so we should see plenty of Allen in the air. 249 passing yards is very attainable in that scenario.
Ravens vs Bengals Player Props
Ja’Marr Chase Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Ja’Marr Chase has fallen off his torrid pace from earlier in the season, but he has a great chance to get back on track this week.
The Ravens are the seventh-worst team in the league in terms of yardage allowed to opposing wide receivers, and they’re dealing with a lot of injuries to their secondary right now. Chase is still seeing a decent amount of targets (20 over his last three games), so he should be able to get back on track against the Ravens pass funnel defense.
Joe Burrow Over 6.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The Ravens are statistically the best team in the league in terms of limiting rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but that’s also a bit of a misleading statistic because opposing quarterbacks have also rushed the least amount of times against them.
Joe Burrow isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson as a rusher, but he’s topped this total six times this year, and we’re only talking about seven yards here. Burrow could easily hit this total with one scramble.
Top Week 16 NFL Player Props
Devin Singletary Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Bills vs Patriots
Wager: 2 Units
While the Bills don’t really like running the ball, they’d be crazy not to against the Patriots this week. New England has been gashed by the run every time opponents have committed to the ground game this year.
Devin Singletary has reclaimed the top spot in the Bills backfield and has seen double-digit carries in three of his last four games (the exception being when the Bills were down big against the Buccaneers and had to throw to get back in the game).
This is more of a bet against the Patriots run defense than it is an endorsement of Singletary’s skills, but I think we’ve got a lot of things working in our favor here.
Courtland Sutton Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Broncos vs Raiders
Wager: 2 Units
I understand any trepidation here. Courtland Sutton has been pretty unproductive lately. He’s only topped 20 receiving yards once in his last six games. He’s also only seen more than three targets in two of those games. That’s not good.
So why do I like him? Six of Drew Lock’s 12 passes last week were targeted at Sutton. That’s a pretty small sample, but it’s also a ridiculous target share. And 24 yards really isn’t a whole lot of yards. If Sutton sees seven targets (or more) like he did last week, he should have no trouble topping this prop.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 44-56, -13.0 Units
