Week 16 features the NFC No. 1-seeded Green Bay Packers taking on the AFC playoff-desperate Cleveland Browns.
The Packers are 11-3 and enter Week 16 following a hard-fought 31-30 road win against the Baltimore Ravens..
The Browns head to Green Bay at 7-7. They’ve won every other game going back to late October, and are coming off a heart-breaking loss in the final seconds to the Raiders at home.
Let’s dive into the Week 16 prop bets for this special Saturday NFL matchup.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 9:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, December 23.
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Browns vs Packers Prop Bets: NFL Week 16 Prop Betting Picks
Aaron Rodgers Over 255.5 Total Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
I thought this was a typo at first, but clearly it’s not.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown over 255 yards in eight games this year. While Rodgers received more help from a heavy ground game earlier in the year, over the last five games, he has thrown over 255 yards in each with ease.
The Browns have a pretty good defense, and with the way the Packers struggled to pull away from the Ravens, I wouldn’t expect the Browns to roll over. They could keep this game close enough to keep Rodgers throwing late into the third and even fourth quarter, which is why I love this Over here.
A player that is going for back-t0-back MVP awards? Yeah, sign me up for him to throw over 255 yards for a sixth-straight game.
Browns 1st Half +4 (+100) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The Browns score more first-half points per game (12.5) than the Packers (12.1), so to see the Packers winning going into halftime by a field goal is not a crazy thought.
It’s not that I think the Browns offense is that good, although they will likely have Baker Mayfield back. It’s more so the stock I would put into the Browns defense to keep it somewhat knotted up early on, especially against a team that struggles getting off to fast starts.
I’ll take the Browns to cover the first-half spread with star running back Nick Chubb controlling the clock as best as Cleveland can. Tack in a stop or two against Green Bay and you likely have a 13-10 ball game for the Packers going into the half.
Double Result: Tie/Packers (+1400) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I know I said I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s 13-10 at the half, but I also think, in general, this game will be close going into the second half. This isn’t me telling you to 100 percent do this, but I do like the high risk, high reward factor of this bet.
Both teams average around the same points per game in the first half of games. Not to mention it’s December football, which probably means the Browns aren’t going to be tossing it around to start. I expect a long drive led by Chubb and a stout defensive effort from the Browns, as their season likely hangs in the balance.
If you happen to get the tie in your favor, you just have to hope that the Packers at Lambeau field can win the game outright. Good thing is that Matt LaFleur‘s Green Bay Packers are 22-3 at Lambeau Field since 2019. They simply do not lose often when at home.
The odds are big enough to go for a fun one on Christmas Day.
Packers Winning Margin 1-6 Points (+310) at Caesars
Wager: 1.25 Units
The Packers are easily the better team and have plenty of weapons, but as I’ve said, I think the Browns compete in this game due to their defense. As long as they can run the ball with Chubb, they can keep this game close.
Regardless, I’m taking Aaron Rodgers over Baker Mayfield at Lambeau in December and not looking back. I think this game will go down to the wire and will be won by a field goal or more, which is why I am going with the point margin of 1-6.
The Browns will give it their all, but in the end, I do see a 7-8 record that likely ends their playoff hopes.