Welcome to Week 13! While we’re without quite a few high-profile players due to their bye weeks, we’ll welcome stars like Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, and Tyreek Hill back into the prop fold this week.
As always, we’re trying to identify totals that are either too high or too low based on recent trends, so let’s dive in and see what kind of value we can find.
All NFL gameday odds for Week 13 player prop bets are current as of December 3 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 13
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Best NFL Player Props Week 13
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor: Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
This total is a little tricky because Jonathan Taylor has only gone over 15 receiving yards in one of his last three games. However, he’s been seeing more usage as a receiver of late and has seen 16 targets over that same timespan.
It’s going to be close, but this total is low enough that Taylor’s recent target share makes me think he’ll be able to hit the Over.
Carson Wentz: Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-125) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Carson Wentz will never be confused for Lamar Jackson, but he’s still a relatively capable rusher when he needs to be. While the Colts don’t design running plays for him, Wentz has now topped 10 rushing yards in five of his last six games.
All we really need here is one or two quarterback scrambles, so I’m liking this low total this week.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Football Team
Derek Carr: Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Derek Carr is quietly putting together a really good season and he’ll get to face a Washington secondary that is allowing 277 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the sixth-worst mark in the league. Carr has topped this total in seven of his 11 games this year, including four of his past six.
Carr’s 2021 play combined with his matchup this week has me loving this total.
Hunter Renfrow: Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Hunter Renfrow will never be a big-play guy, and that’s OK as far as this prop total goes. I’ll be totally transparent and tell you he’s only gone over 60 yards in one of his past eight games. That one game came last week, though, where he put up 134 receiving yards in the absence of Darren Waller, who went down with an injury.
Renfrow is consistently seeing around eight targets per game and should see even more usage without Waller this week against a WFT defense that is the sixth-worst in the league at limiting opposing receivers.
Taylor Heinicke: Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Another player who will never be confused for Lamar Jackson, Taylor Heinicke is also a capable rusher who will likely have to tuck and run a few times this week with J.D. McKissic likely out.
Heinicke typically runs the balls three or four times a game and has had rushing totals of 43, 40, and 95 this season. We only need 17 out of him this week, though, which shouldn’t be too much to ask for as he faces a Raiders defense that allows an average of 20.9 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth could be in line for a huge day against a Ravens defense that has been gashed by opposing tight ends. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Pat Freiermuth: Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
They’ve gotten better as of late, but the Ravens are still bad at stopping opposing tight ends as they currently rank second-worst in the league at 70.4 yards per game.
Enter Pat Freiermuth.
The rookie has become an important part of the Steelers offense and he’s seen an average of just under seven targets per game over his last six. That’s helped him top this yardage total in four of those six games, and bodes well for a juicy matchup against the Ravens.
Najee Harris: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Najee Harris is an even bigger part of the Steelers offense than Freiermuth, as Pittsburgh’s other rookie had a recent five-game stretch where he topped 20 carries. That fell off over the past two weeks as the Steelers fell behind and abandoned the run, but they should be able to keep things close in what promises to be an old-school AFC North slugfest.
While the Ravens have a stout run defense, Harris has topped 58 rushing yards six times in his past eight games, so he’s set up nicely to surpass this total.
Mark Andrews: Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
While the Steelers have been good against opposing tight ends this season, Mark Andrews has been an absolute monster lately. He’s seen double-digit targets in three of his past four games and has exceeded this total in three straight games. With that type of usage, this total is screaming value to me.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 222.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
The best way I can describe Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2021 season is with the word mercurial. He’s topped this yardage total five times, but he’s also thrown for under 200 yards five times.
That said, he’s gone over 222 yards in three of his past five games and is facing a Seahawks defense that is allowing 285.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the second-worst mark in the NFL.
I’m firing up Jimmy G this week as our NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Jalen Hurts Over 189.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Speaking of mercurial, say hello to Jalen Hurts. Hurts has exceeded this total six times this season, but has fallen short of it six times as well, including his last five games.
While the odds are not in our favor this week, Hurts gets to face an atrocious Jets defense that is allowing 277.6 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks and will likely be without both Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard.
There’s a little risk in this one due to recent trends, but the low yardage total combined with Hurts’ opponent is too good to pass up.
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 33-42, -10.5 Units
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 13 Player Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 13 Best Prop Bets.
