MNF Week 13 Prop Bets | Patriots vs Bills Props For Team Over/Under, Double Result, & More

Last Updated: Dec 7, 2021

Week 13 features a huge AFC East division rivalry matchup on Monday Night Football between the 8-4 New England Patriots and 7-4 Buffalo Bills. Surprisingly, this is the first time all season these two rivals have faced off, but the stakes are massive in this first of two-game series.

The Patriots enter Week 13 as winners of six straight and look like perhaps the best team in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Bills have split their past six games and have suffered embarrassing losses to the Colts and Jaguars.

Let’s dive into the Week 13 prop bets for this potential Game of the Week candidate.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Monday, December 6.

Patriots vs Bills Prop Bets: NFL Week 13 Prop Betting Picks

Bills: Under 21.5 Total Points (-105) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Buffalo has boasted one of the league’s best defenses this year and has had a great offense. However, against top teams, they’ve been exposed.

While Buffalo does average 29.6 points per game, they’ve had games — such as their opener against the Steelers or six-point effort against the Jaguars — where they’ve been unable to put points on the board.

I feel like the Patriots right now are the scariest team in the AFC. Their defense has been impressive, and even though the Bills have numerous offensive weapons, the Patriots have proven capable of shutting down their opponents as of late.

Bank on the Patriots holding the Bills to around 20 points.

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Patriots: Over 19.5 Total Points (-115) at Caesars

Wager: 2 Units

The Patriots average 28 points per game on the season and are undefeated on the road. New England is scoring roughly 25 points per game away from home, and I’m confident that they’ll be able to score at least 20 here.

New England has a running game with options, a solid and underrated receiving corps, a great offensive line, and a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones that has thrown the highest percentage of catchable passes in the league.

I think the Patriots end up scoring 28 in this game, which easily gets you the Over on this total points prop.

Double Result Bills/Patriots (+700) at Caesars

Wager: 1.25 Units

The Bills are marginally better in the first half than the Patriots, and I expect the Bills to get off to a faster start at home. They seem to like Devin Singletary and Matt Breida more than former draft pick Zack Moss, so perhaps now they will establish the run.

Either way, the Bills will have to have a balanced offensive attack against New England’s stellar defense. I certainly think the Bills can go into halftime with the lead, but I like the Patriots to pull away in the second half.

These are great odds on a potential Patriots comeback, making this my NFL bet of the day.

Patriots 7-12 Points Winning Margin (+625) at Caesars

Wager: 1.25 Units

New England is on a six-game tear and scoring more than any team over the last three games with 35.3 points. Buffalo is averaging 30.3 points over that same stretch, but have struggled against good teams this season.

This could come down to a field goal, but I am going to go with a 28-20 win for the Patriots on the road, which puts this margin squarely in the 7-12 range.


Jake Ellenbogen

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