Week 13 of the NFL season is upon us and we are officially into December, which means we have a much better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
Now that we have a solid sample size of games to judge teams on, team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value. We also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.
As always, context is key.
With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 13 upset predictions and best bets. Please note that all NFL Week 13 odds and lines are current as of 4 PM EST on Thursday, December 2.
NFL Week 13 Upset Predictions
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
These NFC West rivals are headed in two different directions, as the 49ers have won three in a row while the Seahawks have lost three straight.
Fortunately for Seattle, they have home-field advantage here as well as another week for Russell Wilson to get back in the swing of things.
For anyone who has watched the Seahawks since Wilson’s return, it’s obvious that he still isn’t right after missing a month of action with a finger injury. His arm strength and mobility are both fine, but his timing is off when making throws and escaping the pocket.
Against an opponent he knows well, however, Wilson could finally be ready to get back on track.
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San Francisco will also be without their best player in Deebo Samuel, which is a gargantuan loss for their offense. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t anywhere near Wilson’s level as a quarterback and will certainly miss his top weapon.
Seattle’s strong receiving corps should also be able to exploit San Fran’s weak cornerbacks, who will struggle to contain Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. The 49ers’ defense is ranked bottom-10 by DVOA against the pass, which the Seahawks must lean on3e3wsxza after losing Chris Carson for the season and getting limited production from Alex Collins of late.
- Read our full 49ers vs Seahawks Predictions & Best Bets.
Meanwhile, Seattle has a solid counter to San Francisco’s run game with their run defense ranking 11th. While their pass defense is even worse than the 49ers’, they have less to worry about with Samuel sidelined.
If Wilson rediscovers his pre-injury form, he has a great chance to outduel Garropolo at home.
Upset Prediction: Seahawks 30, 49ers 24
49ers vs Seahawks Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Seahawks Moneyline (+145) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
While it hasn’t been the case this year, Seattle’s home-field advantage is typically among the best in football. Despite the team’s disappointing record this year, you can bet their fans will still show up and be loud for this rivalry game.
Between their home-field edge and matchup advantages, the Seahawks should be able to win this game outright.
Upset Pick: Over 45.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
As mentioned above, neither team is capable of stopping the pass. Assuming Wilson gets back on track and forces the 49ers to air it out, we could have a relatively high-scoring game that cracks the Over on our NFL gameday odds.
Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders
Both the Raiders and WFT are coming off of wins in Week 12 and remain in the playoff hunt in their respective conferences, giving each game a must-win feel for both clubs.
Las Vegas will be at home for this pivotal matchup, although that may not matter much given that they’ve lost three of their last four home games. They’ll try to halt a hot Washington team that has won three in a row.
- Read our full WFT vs Raiders Predictions & Best Bets.
With both teams within a game of .500, this is a pretty even matchup. Both rank in the bottom-10 in defensive DVOA and you can pass against both units, although Washington’s run defense ranks seventh thanks to the stalwart duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.
Vegas is probably the better team offensively, especially at quarterback, but losing Darren Waller is a huge blow. Washington’s offense, on the other hand, is looking much stronger with Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas active and Antonio Gibson appearing healthier.
With Washington trending up and gaining momentum, don’t be surprised if they extend their winning streak here.
Upset Prediction: WFT 24, Raiders 23
WFT vs Raiders Upset Picks
Upset Pick: WFT Moneyline (+115) at Caesers
Wager: 1 Unit
Washington is the better team despite possessing a slightly worse record. Their defense has turned things around lately and should be able to take advantage of the Raiders’ abysmal offensive line.
Look for WFT to even their record at .500 with our NFL bet of the day.
Upset Pick: Over 49.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesers
Wager: 1 Unit
As mentioned earlier, both defenses stink, especially against the pass. Even without Waller available, Derek Carr should be able to put up points here against Washington’s shaky secondary, especially with the resurgence of veteran deep threat DeSean Jackson.
Taylor Heinecke is not exactly someone you want to rely on to score a ton of points, but considering Washington’s strong OL, healthy skill players, and the Raiders’ shoddy D, he should do enough on his end to reach the Over.