Week 13 features an AFC team fighting to make the playoffs and another AFC team that is nearing mathematical elimination from the playoffs.
The Colts are coming off a tough home loss to the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which ended up being their sixth loss of the season. Before that, the Colts had won three straight and have won five of their last seven games.
The Texans are coming off a loss to the New York Jets right after hugely upsetting the Tennessee Titans the week before.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our Colts vs Texans predictions and best bets in our NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 10:00 AM ET on Friday, December 3.
Colts vs Texans Prediction
Indianapolis is 20th in scoring defense, allowing 23.6 points per game. They also rank 17th in yards allowed per game, giving up 358.8 yards.
Led by star running back Jonathan Taylor, resurgent quarterback Carson Wentz, and rising star wideout Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts’ offense has amassed 28.3 points per game, the fourth-most in the league. In addition to that, over the last four games, the Colts have pushed that average to 35 points per game.
Surrounded by talented skill players, Wentz has thrown for 2,790 yards, 21 touchdowns, five interceptions, and has a passer rating of 96.
The shining star on the roster, however, is Jonathan Taylor. The run game has been firing on all cylinders thanks in part to Taylor, as he leads the league in rushing yards (1,205) and rushing touchdowns (14) and is second in yards per game (100.4) and yards per carry (5.8).
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The Colts surprisingly have a winning record of 3-2 on the road, and that’s where they will be this weekend as they take on the Houston Texans.
Houston’s defense ranks 28th in points allowed, but recently it has found some momentum, giving up just 17 points per game over their last three outings.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Texans rank as the worst offense in football as they only average a measly 14.9 points per game.
The Texans have been a mess all season long. They have gone through two starting quarterbacks in Tyrod Taylor and rookie Davis Mills. Their leading rusher is Mark Ingram, who was traded a few weeks ago, and after Brandin Cooks’ 704 receiving yards, the next closest receiver is Chris Conley with 233 yards.
Houston, simply put, has no run game to speak of and has one wideout that does it all.
While the Texans did upset the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago and have done a better job on the defensive end as of late, I don’t see how they do anything against the Colts, especially when they are incredibly depleted and predictable on offense.
It feels almost sad that the Colts need to win this game, or they drop to below .500 after playing the Buccaneers as tough as they could last week. The Texans will have to pressure Wentz and shut down Taylor and the ground game, which not even the notoriously best run defense in football was able to do.
I respect the Texans players who continue to keep battling and fighting for wins. However, they are running out of those on the schedule, and while the Titans game was impressive, don’t expect that to happen to the Colts coming off a heartbreaker to a playoff team last week.
Prediction: Colts 30, Texans 13
Colts vs Texans Best Bets
Best Bet: Colts -10 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
I do not like the Texans in this game at all. Some may look too much into the Titans upset and sleep on the fact the Colts have won five of their last seven. Not me - this Colts team should have won last week and have a lot to fight for right now.
The Colts can dominate the Houston defense with any facet of their offense, but this domination starts with Matt Eberflus’ defense. The Colts lead the league in team turnover margin, and their margin gets a lot better when they are on the road.
Tyrod Taylor has had his moments this season, both good and bad. This is not the type of defense to gamble on, and this is the type Taylor will. Colts will get the big win and cover the spread easily. I’m making this my NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
When you combine the Colts points scored and points allowed averages, you get 51.9 points. Meanwhile, Texans games have averaged 41.4 points.
Both teams have average red zone offenses, with Houston scoring touchdowns in the red zone 52 percent of the time. However, the Texans have the upper hand on the defensive side, ranking 22nd in NFL red zone defense, allowing touchdowns in the red zone at a 62.79 percent clip. The Colts are 29th in that category, allowing touchdowns in the red zone 71.05 percent of the time.
This doesn’t concern me, though, as the Texans appear in the red zone the second-fewest times in the NFL, while the Colts live in the red zone, with an average of 4 appearances per game.
I’m looking at 43 total points, and that’s why betting the Under on a 45.5 total points line is the way to go.
Thank you for reading our NFL Week 13 Colts vs. Texans Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 13 Best Bets.