Big 12 Championship Predictions 2021 | Baylor vs Oklahoma State College Football Pick of the Day

We have some exciting college football matchups coming up this weekend, including the Baylor Bears taking on the Oklahoma State Cowboys for the Big 12 Championship.

Both teams have enjoyed outstanding seasons thus far. Oklahoma State (5) enters the game 11-1, with its lone loss coming by just three points against Iowa State back in Week 8. Baylor (9), on the other hand, is 10-2 and clinched a spot in the game with a narrow 27-24 victory over Texas Tech during its final game of the season.

The Cowboys already defeated the Bears earlier this year in Week 6, but on a neutral field in a crazy environment. Can Baylor return the favor?

Here are our picks and predictions for the Big 12 Championship Game, which is set for 12 pm ET on Saturday, December 4 on ABC. Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 10 AM EST on Monday, November 29.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Prediction

Baylor managed to squeak past Texas Tech without starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon, who missed the game with a non-contact leg injury. Getting him back will be crucial for the Bears, as Bohanon threw for 2,165 yards this season with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for 301 yards and scored nine touchdowns with his legs.

If Bohanon is unable to suit up, Baylor will turn to Blake Shapen, who threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns against the Red Raiders. While he’s not as polished or dynamic as Bohanon, Shapen appears capable and would at least give the Bears a fighting chance, especially since their defense yielded just 19.4 points per game this year.


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Baylor also has one of the better running games in the nation behind Abram Smith, who’s racked up 12 touchdowns and 1,366 yards on the ground this season. Smith is averaging an absurd 6.4 yards per rush this season behind a fantastic offensive line.

Oklahoma State has the edge on defense, however. Despite surrendering a season-high 33 points to Oklahoma last week, the Cowboys are allowing just 14.9 points and 261.3 yards per game. If Shapen’s under center for Baylor, don’t be surprised if he struggles against one of the top units in the country.

Spencer Sanders will lead the Oklahoma State offense after passing for 2,211 yards and 16 touchdowns against eight interceptions this year. He’s also rushed for 510 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, proving to be a skilled playmaker.

The key for the Cowboys will be getting their defense back on track. They’ll need to limit Smith in particular after permitting just 82.6 rushing yards per game.

If they can do that and limit turnovers on their end, Oklahoma State should prevail.

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Prediction: Oklahoma State 24, Baylor 20

Trestan Ebner Ben Sims Baylor Bears CFB

After losing to Oklahoma State earlier in the season, will Baylor get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Baylor vs Oklahoma State Best Bets

Best Bet: Oklahoma State Moneyline (-210) at Caesars

moneyline

-210

Oklahoma State To Defeat Baylor (CFB Big 12 Championship)

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It’s not going to be pretty and there’s not a ton of value here, but Oklahoma State should be able to get the job done against Baylor. There are too many question marks coming into this game for the Bears, especially around who will start at quarterback. If Baylor is forced to roll with a freshman signal-caller at AT&T Stadium, you can forget about it.

Still, Oklahoma State will need to step up on defense after their poor showing against Oklahoma. Smith has been a beast all season, but he may run into a brick wall against the Cowboys’ vaunted rushing defense.

This game projects to be a defensive battle, which is Oklahoma State’s specialty. Back the Cowboys for our CFB bet of the day.

Best Bet: Baylor +5 (-110) at Caesars

spread

-110

Baylor To Cover +5 Spread @ Oklahoma State (CFB Big 12 Championship)

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While Oklahoma State should win this game, it’ll be close and I have Baylor losing by four. Therefore, I’ll take the Bears against the spread here.

Though not quite as airtight as the Cowboys’ defense, Baylor’s defense has been one of the best in the nation too and hasn’t been getting the credit they deserve. They’ve allowed more than 24 points just twice this year and never more than 30.

Regardless of who’s under center for the Bears, their defense should enable them to hang around and keep this a one-possession game throughout.

Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-110) at DraftKings

over-under

-110

Under 46.5 Total Points Scored In Baylor @ Oklahoma State (CFB Big 12 Championship)

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As mentioned, both teams have great defenses that are capable of shutting down their opponents at will. That makes the Under a wise play in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.

Based on our CFB gameday odds, I feel the most comfortable with the Under compared to any other bets on this game.

Thanks for reading our Big 12 Championship Predictions & Best Bets! For more CFB betting tips, check out our CFB Conference Championship Predictions.

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Schedule & Odds

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page