SEC Championship Game Predictions 2021 | Georgia vs Alabama CFB Pick of the Day

The college football gods have blessed us this Saturday with an epic SEC Conference Championship showdown between Georgia and Alabama.

Georgia goes into this year’s conference championship with a 12-0 record. Alabama, on the other hand, comes limping into the conference championship after a narrow four-overtime victory last week over Auburn.

For the first time since 2015, Alabama is an underdog. Before last week’s Auburn debacle, UGA was a four-point favorite against Bama. Currently, the Crimson Tide are seven-point underdogs.

There are several questions that will be answered on Saturday, including whether Alabama’s most recent close call was an isolated incident. It’s also worth wondering if the SEC West is a stronger division than the SEC East, and if Georgia remain undefeated against their strongest opponent yet in Alabama.

Below, find out my answers to those questions, as well as my best bets.

All NCAAF gameday odds and lines are current as of Tuesday, November 30 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Alabama vs Georgia SEC Championship Prediction

Depending on what strength of schedule ratings you look at, it is hard to determine who played a tougher schedule this season.

Georgia had a non-conference slate that featured a Clemson team that underperformed this year and three cupcakes. Alabama’s non-conference slate consisted of an underperforming Miami (FL) team and three cupcakes.


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While the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs have nearly identical strengths of schedule for their non-conference slates, in my opinion Alabama played a tougher conference schedule.

Alabama played Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, and Arkansas — all teams that were nationally ranked at one point. Georgia, on the other hand, managed to pad its schedule with easy SEC East opponents in South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri.

Now, Georgia will face its toughest opponent yet.

UGA’s DNA is in having a dominant defense and decent offense. The Bulldogs allow only 6.9 points per game, which is not only the fewest points in the country, but more than nine points less than the second-best defense.

Unfortunately for Georgia, Alabama averages 42.2 points per game which is the third-best in the country and the best in the SEC.

Outside of Tennessee, Georgia has yet to face an explosive offense this year. Alabama averages 348.7 passing yards per game, but Georgia allows only 160 passing yards per game.

Unlike a typical lopsided game for both teams, it is hard to predict who will win, but my gut says that Nick Saban and Alabama will perform better than expected.

Georgia vs Alabama Prediction: Alabama 34, Georgia 28

Nick Saban

Will Nick Saban be able to lead the Alabama Crimson Tide over the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs this weekend? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship Best Bets

Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+210) at FOX Bet (would bet up to +160)

Wager: 1 Unit

Before Alabama barely hung on against Auburn, they were (+160) underdogs against Georgia to win the conference. With sports bettors and linemakers already skeptical of the Crimson Tide, Saturday’s near miss gave the books enough of a reason to move Alabama to heavier underdogs at (+210).

Georgia should be favored to win the SEC, and Alabama should be an underdog. The only issue is that the Crimson Tide have a much better chance of winning the conference than the odds imply, and people are overreacting to last week’s Auburn game.

Alabama’s only loss came against a Texas A&M team with top 10 talent that underperformed this year. The Crimson Tide won the National Championship last year and are a mainstay at the top of the AP Poll. Georgia has played well this season, but Alabama will be their toughest opponent yet.

At (+210), Bama is worth a shot on Saturday against a strong Georgia team.

moneyline

+210

Alabama To Defeat Georgia (SEC Championship)

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Best Bet: Alabama +7 (-120) at BetRivers (would bet up to +6)

Wager: 1 Unit

Before last week’s Auburn debacle, Alabama was a four-point underdog against Georgia. The Crimson Tide’s chances of winning should be downgraded, but not by a field goal or more.

The last time Alabama lost by more than a touchdown was in the 2018 National Championship game against Clemson. With a low-scoring game expected, particularly if the Bulldogs win, there are fewer opportunities for Georgia to win by more than a touchdown.

If Georgia really is this good, it is certainly possible that they beat a strong team like Alabama in a blowout. Unfortunately for UGA, I believe that if they win, it will be a narrow win. And even then, victory isn’t guaranteed.

spread

-120

Alabama +7 (CFB SEC Championship)

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Thanks for reading our SEC Championship Predictions & Best Bets! For more CFB betting tips, check out our CFB Conference Championship Predictions.

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Schedule & Odds

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page