SEC Championship Game Predictions 2021 | Georgia vs Alabama CFB Pick of the Day
The college football gods have blessed us this Saturday with an epic SEC Conference Championship showdown between Georgia and Alabama.
Georgia goes into this year’s conference championship with a 12-0 record. Alabama, on the other hand, comes limping into the conference championship after a narrow four-overtime victory last week over Auburn.
For the first time since 2015, Alabama is an underdog. Before last week’s Auburn debacle, UGA was a four-point favorite against Bama. Currently, the Crimson Tide are seven-point underdogs.
There are several questions that will be answered on Saturday, including whether Alabama’s most recent close call was an isolated incident. It’s also worth wondering if the SEC West is a stronger division than the SEC East, and if Georgia remain undefeated against their strongest opponent yet in Alabama.
Below, find out my answers to those questions, as well as my best bets.
All NCAAF gameday odds and lines are current as of Tuesday, November 30 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Alabama vs Georgia SEC Championship Prediction
Depending on what strength of schedule ratings you look at, it is hard to determine who played a tougher schedule this season.
Georgia had a non-conference slate that featured a Clemson team that underperformed this year and three cupcakes. Alabama’s non-conference slate consisted of an underperforming Miami (FL) team and three cupcakes.
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While the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs have nearly identical strengths of schedule for their non-conference slates, in my opinion Alabama played a tougher conference schedule.
Alabama played Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, and Arkansas — all teams that were nationally ranked at one point. Georgia, on the other hand, managed to pad its schedule with easy SEC East opponents in South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri.
Now, Georgia will face its toughest opponent yet.
UGA’s DNA is in having a dominant defense and decent offense. The Bulldogs allow only 6.9 points per game, which is not only the fewest points in the country, but more than nine points less than the second-best defense.
Unfortunately for Georgia, Alabama averages 42.2 points per game which is the third-best in the country and the best in the SEC.
Outside of Tennessee, Georgia has yet to face an explosive offense this year. Alabama averages 348.7 passing yards per game, but Georgia allows only 160 passing yards per game.
Unlike a typical lopsided game for both teams, it is hard to predict who will win, but my gut says that Nick Saban and Alabama will perform better than expected.
Georgia vs Alabama Prediction: Alabama 34, Georgia 28
Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship Best Bets
Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+210) at FOX Bet (would bet up to +160)
Wager: 1 Unit
Before Alabama barely hung on against Auburn, they were (+160) underdogs against Georgia to win the conference. With sports bettors and linemakers already skeptical of the Crimson Tide, Saturday’s near miss gave the books enough of a reason to move Alabama to heavier underdogs at (+210).
Georgia should be favored to win the SEC, and Alabama should be an underdog. The only issue is that the Crimson Tide have a much better chance of winning the conference than the odds imply, and people are overreacting to last week’s Auburn game.
Alabama’s only loss came against a Texas A&M team with top 10 talent that underperformed this year. The Crimson Tide won the National Championship last year and are a mainstay at the top of the AP Poll. Georgia has played well this season, but Alabama will be their toughest opponent yet.
At (+210), Bama is worth a shot on Saturday against a strong Georgia team.
Alabama To Defeat Georgia (SEC Championship)
Bet $20, Payout $62
Best Bet: Alabama +7 (-120) at BetRivers (would bet up to +6)
Wager: 1 Unit
Before last week’s Auburn debacle, Alabama was a four-point underdog against Georgia. The Crimson Tide’s chances of winning should be downgraded, but not by a field goal or more.
The last time Alabama lost by more than a touchdown was in the 2018 National Championship game against Clemson. With a low-scoring game expected, particularly if the Bulldogs win, there are fewer opportunities for Georgia to win by more than a touchdown.
If Georgia really is this good, it is certainly possible that they beat a strong team like Alabama in a blowout. Unfortunately for UGA, I believe that if they win, it will be a narrow win. And even then, victory isn’t guaranteed.
Alabama +7 (CFB SEC Championship)
Bet $20, Payout $37
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