Week 12 of the NFL season is upon us and the overreactions are loud on the streets. We are officially on our first holiday week and have a better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
11 Weeks into the year, we have a solid sample size of games to judge teams on. Team-adjusted stats like DVOA have a ton of value, but we also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.
As always, context is key.
With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 12 upset predictions and best bets.
All NFL gameday odds are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 24.
NFL Week 12 Upset Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers are coming off of a wonky loss on Sunday Night Football, while the Bengals throttled the Raiders earlier in the day. Cincinnati has the more favorable roster, better record, and point differential, yet this game could be one that slips away.
Pittsburgh is reportedly getting healthier, with EDGE T.J. Watt, CB Joe Haden, and S Minkah Fitzpatrick on the mend. They will need all hands on deck to face the Bengals’ loaded offense, particularly due to their own shortcomings on that end.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Before you make your NFL Week 12 Upset bet picks, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering an eye-popping array of promotions and matching your first bet up to $1,001 (win or lose) for new signups using our promo code .
Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for NFL Week 12 Upset tipster picks.
While Pittsburgh did lose their first meeting this season by two touchdowns at Heinz Field, they were missing WR1 Diontae Johnson.Cincinnati was down WR2 Tee Higgins, but he is less impactful for his respective offense.
Since then, the Steelers lost JuJu Smith-Schuster but gained an expanded role from TE1 Pat Freiermuth who cannot stop finding the endzone of late. Freiermuth has found the end zone four times in the past four games and at 6+ targets in each of the past five.
Upset Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 20
Steelers vs Bengals Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Steelers Moneyline (+175) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Yes, Cincinnati is at home, but divisional matchups are always ones to be wary of, even when all logic points one way.
Cincinnati’s defense is no longer a joke, and the Steelers’ offense is still a major hindrance to their overall outlook, but they have won four of their last five with Ben Roethlisberger starting. During that span, he has not been intercepted once.
Joe Burrow‘s early-season flashes were incredibly promising, but since Week 5, he’s thrown 12 touchdowns to seven interceptions. The OL remains a concern, and now faced with a daunting Steelers defense, Burrow may be poorly positioned to succeed.
Upset Pick: Under 45 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
This may seem foolish given that the most recent matchup only totaled 34 points, but both defenses are respectable and can make the opposing QB’s day miserable. Cincinnati ranks No. 31 in pace, while Pittsburgh comes in at No. 18.
There may be plenty of rushing as to not give away turnovers as well as utilizing respective “stars" Najee Harris and Joe Mixon.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
The last time we saw the Broncos was in Week 10 against the Eagles, when they were unequivocally gashed on the ground by Jalen Hurts and co. An uninspiring performance like that is not soon forgotten by a team that has not given up (yet) and is not coming off of a bye.
While Los Angeles has more firepower and name value on their roster than Denver, the Broncos’ style of football is exactly what the Chargers cannot stop as they rank dead-last in rush DVOA.
Denver’s tandem of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams has been their bread and butter all season long. When they can control a game script and gain consistent yards, opposing teams have been flustered.
Teddy Bridgewater cannot win a game on his own like Justin Herbert can, but he can manage one to his team’s liking while making minimal mistakes along the way.
This is the first of two matchups on the season, and playing in Mile High Stadium is always an advantage for Denver.
Upset Prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 24
Chargers vs Broncos Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Broncos Moneyline (+125) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Broncos at home coming off a bye and they’re underdogs to a team that nearly fumbled a multiple score lead last week? Does not make sense.
Take them straight up thanks to all that and their matchup advantage and make this your NFL bet of the day.
Upset Pick: Over 47.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Both teams have horrible defenses. The Chargers rank No. 21 in DVOA, while Denver ranks No. 26. The general perception is that they are good on that end due to possessing defensive-minded coaches and premium talent, but that is far from the case.