Ah, rivalry week. There is nothing quite like it.
As the season winds down, the intensity ramps up. And when it comes to upsets, this slate offers up no shortage of options.
Before we look ahead, let’s first look back. For the first time in a long time, we struck out on picking upsets. I know, I know. I’m not proud about it either. Although we did not go down quietly in Week 12.
I loved Navy over East Carolina, and the Midshipmen ultimately lost on a 54-yard field goal as time expired. And UAB? Well, the Blazers lost with only a few seconds remaining to UTSA. (Both teams still covered the spread.)
I’d prefer not to talk about what happened to Wake Forest, thank you. Needless to say, that was a miss.
With that, we turn the page.
Upset huntin’, rivalry edition. Let’s cook.
CFB Week 13 Upset: LSU (+6.5) vs. No. 14 Texas A&M
As Ed Orgeron’s tenure with LSU has become more defined—aka there isn’t one—the Tigers have actually improved.
It wasn’t pretty against Louisiana-Monroe last week, although it didn’t matter. LSU fell well short of covering the four-touchdown spread, although the defense delivered another stellar performance.
Considering the injuries this program has been dealt this year, the season has actually rounded into reasonable shape. And with one last crack at a ranked team, this could be the Coach O special. We saw this at USC—and LSU, for that matter—before he won the job.
With nothing to lose, it wouldn’t be shocking to see LSU deliver one last quality performance before Orgeron is out. Texas A&M has one of the nation’s best defenses, although the offense has still struggled some.
This feels like a game that will be tight and close throughout. LSU absolutely has a shot.
Prediction: LSU 20, Texas A&M 17
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Under 45.5 Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
A&M’s defense is as advertised. LSU’s is considerably better. This game will likely play out as advertised. Low scoring and mighty competitive.
LSU Moneyline (+210) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
This is how you leave your job accordingly. LSU caps off an eventful year with a win over a top-20 program.
CFB Week 13 Upset: Boston College (+4.5) vs. No. 21 Wake Forest
After starting the season with eight consecutive wins, Wake Forest has now lost two of the past three. The latest defeat, a 48-27 loss to Clemson, highlights a theme that has been constant all year: the defense has issues.
The offense, led by quarterback Sam Hartman, largely made up for those issues. And I thought that Hartman would do enough last week to give the Demon Deacons a win.
Now, I’m heading the other direction. Although Boston College struggled early and lost to Florida State in Week 12, they did mount a late comeback that fell just short.
Looking ahead, this is an interesting spot for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons can still reach the ACC Championship game, although a stop on the road will be a tricky one. Given the way this season has shifted, BC is poised to take full advantage.
QB Phil Jurkovec has to play a better game, and I believe he will.
Prediction: Boston College 37, Wake Forest 34
Over 64 Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
As we’ve seen, the Wake Forest defense has issues. Boston College should take advantage. The Demon Deacons will also do plenty of damage as well. This could be a long, high-scoring game.
Boston College Moneyline (+170) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Even though Wake Forest still has plenty to play for, I’m not sure it matters. Boston College has plenty of tape to use to its advantage at this point to post touchdowns. BC outright.
CFB Week 13 Upset: Minnesota (+7) vs. No. 18 Wisconsin
In terms of conference impact, this one has plenty of it. Wisconsin can lock up the Big Ten West with a win. That part is simple. But if the Badgers lose, things can get weird. Iowa and Minnesota both have paths to the championship game, although those paths begin with a Gophers victory.
Wisconsin won its seventh-straight game against Nebraska on Saturday, doing so largely behind the efforts of freshman running back Braelon Allen. The massive back exploded for 228 yards, his seventh 100-yard game in a row. His emergence and Wisconsin’s winning streak are in lockstep.
Minnesota, however, has the nation’s No. 12 rushing defense. That could be enough to throw Wisconsin off its rhythm at home. But can Minnesota muster up enough offense to take advantage?
Despite the injuries at running back, the Gophers continue to run the ball well. Although I expect quarterback Tanner Morgan to be a factor here. It’s been a disappointing year for Morgan, but he’s shown signs the last two weeks.
Minnesota shakes up the B1G in the final regular-season weekend.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 20
Over 39 Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
When you consider that this total is 25 points less than Wake-BC, it says a lot about the kind of game we might get. And I don’t disagree. I just expect there to be a few more touchdowns baked in.
Minnesota Moneyline (+220) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
It’s a big swing, and I like the value at more than 2/1. At home, Minnesota should at least keep this close. (As a bonus, I’ll be playing the Gophers +7 as well.)
