With a slate of only three NBA games tonight, Kevin Davis aka Professor Props is giving out his best NBA Player Props. After a rough start to the NBA season, Davis is looking to rebound (no pun intended).
Below, read about the four players that he is targeting for Tuesday night’s NBA slate.
All NBA gameday odds and lines are current as of Thursday, November 11, at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Kevin Davis NBA season record: 5-7 (-4.48 units, -37.3% ROI)
NBA Prop Bets of the Day: Best Basketball Props Today 11/11/21
Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz (9:10 p.m. ET)
Rudy Gobert: Over 14.5 Rebounds (+100) at BetRivers
Wager: 1.5 Units
This season I have been getting killed on player props. Luckily, whenever I bet on Rudy Gobert to go over his rebound total, he delivers.
One thing I like about rebound props in general is that a player’s rebound total stays consistent. For assists props, it depends on if other players score. For scoring props, it depends on if the player’s shots falls. For rebounds, it usually depends on how long a player is on the floor and what percentage of rebounds they grab.
That is why rather than look at rebounds per game as my go to stat, I look at total rebound percentage. Currently, Gobert has a rebound percentage of 27.96%, which is the second-highest in the NBA this season behind Andre Drummond.
In the history of the NBA, only one player has had a higher rebound share than either Gobert and Drummond, and that would be Dennis Rodman during the 1994-1995 season.
On the surface, Gobert’s 15.9 rebounds per game average looks unsustainable. However, I believe that he keeps this up based on his role on the Jazz. As a result, at even money, his over at 14.5 rebounds is a bargain.
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Royce O’Neale: Under 1.5 Three-Pointers (-150) at DraftKings
Wager: 1.5 Units
While Gobert plays a major role on the Jazz, Royce O’Neale is barely noticeable. With Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, and Bojan Bogdanovic, it is easier to forget that O’Neale exists.
While O’Neale’s point total has been appropriately set at only 7.5 points, his three-pointer total at 1.5 seems a bit too high. O’Neale currently averages only 3.7 three-pointer attempts per game and is only hitting 34.1% of his shots from downtown.
Even though the under is juiced at (-150), it is a great bet to make as I believe that O’Neale won’t attempt enough three-pointers to go over his total.
Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Clippers (10:00 p.m. ET)
Ivica Zubac: Over 17.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113) at BetRivers
Wager: 1.5 Units
Ivica Zubac: Yes Double-Double (+400) at BetRivers
Wager: .5 Units
The Miami Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. However, they’ll be without Jimmy Butler in tonight’s game due to an injury he sustained in last night’s overtime loss against the Lakers.
With a tired Heat team playing the second leg of a back-to-back without Butler, the Clippers should do better offensively than they normally would. As a result, in addition to betting on the Clippers to cover (when they were listed at -3.5), I am targeting Clippers that I believe will be active tonight.
Paul George and Reggie Jackson are the most active offensive players on LA’s roster, and their props are all efficiently set. However, there is value in betting on Ivica Zubac and Eric Bledsoe.
Zubac plays a minor role on the Clippers, but as one of the few big men his role is consistent. Most of his scoring comes from two-pointers close to the basket, and as a result, he makes 65.4% of his field goal attempts.
Additionally, Zubac is averaging 7.1 rebounds. Quietly, Zubac is averaging 3.9 free throw attempts per game, which is 1.5 more than last year.
With a PRA total of only 17.5, on a typical day this is an efficiently set number. However, against a tired Heat team he should get an extra rebound or field goal tonight. Additionally, if he has a big game, he might have a double-double, which at (+400) is worth taking a flier on.
Eric Bledsoe: Over 16.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-113) at BetRivers
Wager: 1.5 Units
The other player on the Clippers that is worth targeting is Eric Bledsoe. He’s having a down year, as he is averaging only 8.8 points per game which is his lowest since the 2012-2013 season. However, his assist and rebound numbers have remained the same, and he should bounce back offensively.
Currently, Bledsoe is shooting only 33.7% from the field and 18.2% from downtown. However, he is averaging 26.9 minutes per game as a starter. If the Clippers continue to play Bledsoe, he should play better this season, and as a result, should have more than 16.5 points, rebounds, and assists in tonight’s game.
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